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Play, action or pass: Week 7 plays in the NFL and college football
Jerry Bo
Oct 20, 2017, 2:50 am
The Packers have lost Aaron Rodgers but still have talent. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images
Just how vital is the Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers to the point spread? The opening line moved the Packers from a -6.5 point favorite before the injury to an opening 4 point underdog at home. The line got as high as New Orleans -6.5 Monday evening at the Westgate, but seems to be settling into the 4.5 point range as of Thursday afternoon. A 6.5 point favorite wins approximately 71.1% of its games, while 3.5 point underdogs win about 41.5% of the time, that's a 30% swing. If you want to measure what these numbers mean, let's take the Patriots last year. When the Tom Brady suspension was announced, the line moved 6 points. Having seen some of what he can do, we can now say that Jimmy Garoppolo is a more competent quarterback than Brett Hundley. The line ended up settling after Garoppolo's first performance week 1, to about a 4.5 point difference. But what did we really know about Garoppolo prior to him starting those few games? Other players worth substantial points to their team include Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan, all worth approximately 6-7 points. In 2014, the Arizona Cardinals Carson Palmer came out red hot to a 6-0 start. In the fourth quarter of Week 6, Palmer tore his ACL, adjusting the following week's point spread -6.5 points for Drew Stanton. This same weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are missing Jameis Winston. The point adjustment for him is only 1.5-2 points. As you can see, the oddsmakers are grading Rodgers absence historically high and possibly the most significant loss to a team according to a point spread. But also, anticipating the public would drive the number up seeing what the Saints did to the Lions scoring 52 points. While Rodgers is arguably the best player in the league, don't overreact. Vegas has now moved the Green Bay Packers from a 5-1 to a 12-1 favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Teams getting the most action:
Carolina Panthers: 76%
Tennessee Titans: 74%
Denver Broncos: 73%
Kansas City Chiefs: 72%
Jacksonville Jaguars: 69%
What do all these teams have in common? Road Favorites.
Plays
Buffalo-3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense ranks in the bottom three vs. quarterbacks and wide receivers. Look for Tyrod Taylor to have a good day as he quietly has thrown for 910 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. With Jameis Winston's shoulder being banged up, enter journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tampa has lost four straight road games and has allowed 24 points per game giving up 403 yards along the way. Buffalo has covered coming out of a bye the past two seasons. The Bills are 4-1 are ATS this year while the Bucs are 1-6 vs. line last six since late 2016.
Denver-1
The Chargers are 0-3 Straight up and ATS at Home this year. When we say home, we use that loosely as attendance has been at an all-time low at the Stub Hub Center. With Home Field advantage in the NFL counting as 3 points on average, is that Home Field factored in this line? If it is, the line is telling you the Chargers are a better team? Give me the better defense, the #1 rush Defense, coming off a performance, where they gave up over a 100 yards to an unknown running back. Look for the Broncos to get off to a hot start vs. a Chargers team that is trailing 50-7 in first quarters this year. Broncos are 5-1 Straight up and ATS the last six in this series on the road.
Pass
Packers + 4.5 (wait until kickoff line goes higher)
Overreaction!! That's what this line screams. In the NFL, things are viewed as a what have you done for me lately. New Orleans is coming off a 52 point performance where the defense score a few times and Mark Ingram shined; Now they travel to Green Bay to face a wounded team with a backup quarterback. The critical factor in this game will be the weather. It will be raining all weekend and a forecast calling for 80% rain 12 mph winds with a low of 42 degrees. These are all good things for a Packers team looking to play different defenses as the secondary is also depleted making them turn away from the Nitro package. If I had to pick, I would take the Packers +4.5-6 if you can get it that high close to kickoff. When a defense is that bad, and your QB's home/Road splits are massive, Give me the home dog vs. a team getting 70% of the action.
Action: Teaser of the week
Tennesee-1 /Seattle Pick
Dallas Cowboys Team Total over 26.5
Giants/ Seahawks under 40.5
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
Rams-3
Travel: is the Keyword here. A game being played in London.
What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.
Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.
Depth finally runs dry
It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.
Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.
But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.
The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.
Cracks in the pitching core
And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.
Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.
But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.
Injury handling under fire
Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.
No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.
Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.
Pressure mounts on Dana Brown
All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.
Brown will need to act — and soon.
At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.
*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!
The Astros are calling up Brice Matthews, their top prospect on @MLBPipeline
via @brianmctaggart pic.twitter.com/K91cGKkcx6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 10, 2025
There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.
A final test before the break
Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.
The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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*ChatGPT assisted.
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