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Play, action or pass: Week 7 plays in the NFL and college football
Jerry Bo
Oct 20, 2017, 2:50 am
The Packers have lost Aaron Rodgers but still have talent. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images
Just how vital is the Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers to the point spread? The opening line moved the Packers from a -6.5 point favorite before the injury to an opening 4 point underdog at home. The line got as high as New Orleans -6.5 Monday evening at the Westgate, but seems to be settling into the 4.5 point range as of Thursday afternoon. A 6.5 point favorite wins approximately 71.1% of its games, while 3.5 point underdogs win about 41.5% of the time, that's a 30% swing. If you want to measure what these numbers mean, let's take the Patriots last year. When the Tom Brady suspension was announced, the line moved 6 points. Having seen some of what he can do, we can now say that Jimmy Garoppolo is a more competent quarterback than Brett Hundley. The line ended up settling after Garoppolo's first performance week 1, to about a 4.5 point difference. But what did we really know about Garoppolo prior to him starting those few games? Other players worth substantial points to their team include Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan, all worth approximately 6-7 points. In 2014, the Arizona Cardinals Carson Palmer came out red hot to a 6-0 start. In the fourth quarter of Week 6, Palmer tore his ACL, adjusting the following week's point spread -6.5 points for Drew Stanton. This same weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are missing Jameis Winston. The point adjustment for him is only 1.5-2 points. As you can see, the oddsmakers are grading Rodgers absence historically high and possibly the most significant loss to a team according to a point spread. But also, anticipating the public would drive the number up seeing what the Saints did to the Lions scoring 52 points. While Rodgers is arguably the best player in the league, don't overreact. Vegas has now moved the Green Bay Packers from a 5-1 to a 12-1 favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Teams getting the most action:
Carolina Panthers: 76%
Tennessee Titans: 74%
Denver Broncos: 73%
Kansas City Chiefs: 72%
Jacksonville Jaguars: 69%
What do all these teams have in common? Road Favorites.
Plays
Buffalo-3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense ranks in the bottom three vs. quarterbacks and wide receivers. Look for Tyrod Taylor to have a good day as he quietly has thrown for 910 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. With Jameis Winston's shoulder being banged up, enter journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tampa has lost four straight road games and has allowed 24 points per game giving up 403 yards along the way. Buffalo has covered coming out of a bye the past two seasons. The Bills are 4-1 are ATS this year while the Bucs are 1-6 vs. line last six since late 2016.
Denver-1
The Chargers are 0-3 Straight up and ATS at Home this year. When we say home, we use that loosely as attendance has been at an all-time low at the Stub Hub Center. With Home Field advantage in the NFL counting as 3 points on average, is that Home Field factored in this line? If it is, the line is telling you the Chargers are a better team? Give me the better defense, the #1 rush Defense, coming off a performance, where they gave up over a 100 yards to an unknown running back. Look for the Broncos to get off to a hot start vs. a Chargers team that is trailing 50-7 in first quarters this year. Broncos are 5-1 Straight up and ATS the last six in this series on the road.
Pass
Packers + 4.5 (wait until kickoff line goes higher)
Overreaction!! That's what this line screams. In the NFL, things are viewed as a what have you done for me lately. New Orleans is coming off a 52 point performance where the defense score a few times and Mark Ingram shined; Now they travel to Green Bay to face a wounded team with a backup quarterback. The critical factor in this game will be the weather. It will be raining all weekend and a forecast calling for 80% rain 12 mph winds with a low of 42 degrees. These are all good things for a Packers team looking to play different defenses as the secondary is also depleted making them turn away from the Nitro package. If I had to pick, I would take the Packers +4.5-6 if you can get it that high close to kickoff. When a defense is that bad, and your QB's home/Road splits are massive, Give me the home dog vs. a team getting 70% of the action.
Action: Teaser of the week
Tennesee-1 /Seattle Pick
Dallas Cowboys Team Total over 26.5
Giants/ Seahawks under 40.5
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
Rams-3
Travel: is the Keyword here. A game being played in London.
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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore
Jun 25, 2025, 10:01 pm
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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