The betting weekend
Play, action or pass Week 8: NFL gambling plays
A trend is a general direction in which something is developing or changing. Usually, when you set them, it's because something was done successfully and others try to replicate it. So, what do we think the success of Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson does for teams desperately needing a Quarterback? Both of these teams, traded, what experts say was"too much."
The Eagles traded a first-, third- and a fourth-round pick in 2016, a first-round pick in '17 and a second-round pick in '18 in order to draft Wentz and a conditional fourth-round pick.
Browns received the 8th pick, which was traded to Tennesee (Jack Conklin). A third-round pick also traded to Carolina (Daryl Worley) A fourth-round pick traded to Oakland (Connor Cook). Also, add in a first round pick in 2017 and 2018.
After the dust settled and the Browns made more moves they ended up with these nine players:
QB DeShone Kizer
QB Cody Kessler
WR Corey Coleman
WR Jordan Payton
OT Shon Coleman
WR Ricardo Louis
S Derrick Kindred
S Jabrill Peppers
OG/OT Spencer Drango
Houston's first-round pick in 2018
Philadelphia's second-round pick in 2018
That's a lot of players, but who on that list has the ceiling of Carson Wentz?
Let's look at what the Texans did to get Watson:
Texans swapped first rounds picks and gave up the first round in 2018. A draft in which they have previously traded the rights to the second round pick next year, this was an all-in type of move by a Franchise desperately needing a sense of direction from a winning mentality quarterback. There is plenty of football to be played, and these careers are young, but you have to think that these guys have all the tools to lead a franchise in the right direction. The Browns drafted safety Jabrill Peppers out of Michigan with the 25th pick.
With quarterbacks like Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold (says he may return his senior year), and Josh Allen coming into the picture in next year's 83rd edition of the NFL draft in Arlington Texas, do teams make a big move to get one of these guys?
Not all trends are good to follow and risking for a quarterback that may not be the future can set a franchise back years. Similar to the trend of skinny jeans, which set society back a few years. Not all trends are good trends.
On to betting. Off to a 4-1-1 start in week 7. Let's jump right in and keep searching for angles. A wise man once told me, "The best bet, sometimes, is no bet." So with that thought, be selective, be confident and never chase.
Teams receiving the most action:
Bengals -9.5: Cincinnati dropped to 2-4 straight up and 3-3 ATS last week vs. the Steelers. In a game they scored 14 points in the first half, they scored as many as you and I did in the second, zero! The Colts are also coming off an embarrassing performance getting beat 27-0. The Bengals are in desperate need of a win, as they travel for three straight weeks after this game. The Colts are giving up a season-high 31.3 points per game and have been outscored 128-49 away from Lucas Oil Field. Look for a solid game from Joe Mixon as the Colts are giving up 124 yards rushing per game. In a game that on paper presents a matchup between the 29th ranked offense in Cincinnati vs. the 32nd ranked defense. Going up against a team like the Colts is precisely what the Bengals need to gain momentum before hitting the road.
Saints-9: New Orleans is gaining momentum on both sides of the ball at the perfect time. The Saints are on a four-game winning streak, and much has to do with the 37-year-old Drew Brees and his 100.4 passer rating. In an offseason that puzzled people with the addition of Adrian Peterson to an already crowded backfield in a heavy pass offense, things are finally gaining clarity in the running back rotation. Since the departure of Peterson, Ingram has run for 219 yards and three scores in 2 games. The Bears numbers are indeed deceiving. Mitchell Trubisky has attempted 23 pass attempts in his last two games, both resulting in wins. It's not that the Bears have a strong running game and shutdown defense either, it more sits on the trust Head Coach John Fox has in the rookie's ability to read defenses. When led by Glennon, the Bears scored eight touchdowns in four games. While Trubisky has led, four touchdown drives in three games. So has there really been an upgrade? I believe it was more of a matter of the fans calling for this move to be made sooner than later. I expect the Saints to score in the lower 30's in this game and just don't see Trubisky being able to keep up. Brees has been sacked the least amount of times this year by a substantial amount and although the Bears are ninth in pass defense, time in the pocket will be a factor.
Cowboys vs. Redskins over 48
Carolina+2.5(buy the hook +3)
Teaser of the Week :
New England -7.5
With the money coming in evenly on both sides, I genuinely want to take the Chargers. Although the New England defense has looked better allowing less than 17 points in the last three weeks, they've turned to a bend not break scheme to mask the holes they have. Last week the Falcons were in the Red Zone 4 times and came out with 0 points. Just look at the disrespect in last weeks game by the Falcons coaching staff by going for it on 4th down in the first quarter, no respect for that defense. Look for the Chargers to keep it close but Ill pass.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.