WAGERING THIS WEEKEN
Play action or pass Week 9: New faces in new places
The NFL trade deadline that was:
Jimmy Garoppolo - In the most significant move of the trade deadline, the 49ers took a gamble and traded their 2nd round pick in 2018 to the Patriots, for the heavily coveted back up quarterback in New England. The move comes at somewhat of a surprise as many fans were assured that an offseason move for top free agent Kirk Cousins was on the horizon. Also, add in the reunion of Kyle Shanahan and Kirk Cousins, and $115 million in cap space this offseason, the move for the Redskins Quarterback, was inevitable. Let's scratch that and look to the future. Although the move may not be permanent, San Fransico gets to experiment. With John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan both on six-year deals, the move came sooner than later. As for the Patriots, Did they really lose? This offseason they were going to lose Garoppolo to free agency anyways as he had made it clear that he wanted to be somewhere he would start and playing time was his main priority. The genius in Bill Belichick, in turn, gets essentially the first rounder he was asking for this offseason that no team bit on also having to add a fourth-round pick. Trading with a 0-8 team essentially sets up the Patriots to draft at the top of the second round.
Jay Ajayi- The Dolphins dealt the ball carrier to the Eagles for a fourth round pick. Ajayi's knees are alarming and will be something to monitor. But for a fouth round pick, the Eagles, which many are saying are the currently the best team in the NFL, added a versatile weapon to the offense. We all know Ajayi can run the ball, but what's overlooked is his ability to catch out of the backfield where he has 48 receptions for 308 yards in his career. Coming off a 1,272-yard season, he will carry the majority of the snaps at Lincoln Financial Field. The hidden gem here is LeGarrette Blount; he will be aided in workload as the 30-year old has surpassed 100 carries already through eight games. Fatigue was his downfall as we can remember last year in December where he seemed tired and was unproductive. Saving him for short yardage and late game situations will be ideal for keeping defenses tired and off balance.
Kelvin Benjamin- The Panthers made a move to open up room for speed to the receiving group. With Devin Funchess being six-foot-four, and Benjamin six-foot-five, the loss of Ted Gin took away the speed and deep threat of the offense. Making this move will allow players like Russell Shepard and Curtis Samuel to see the field more. The Bills add a big target that will help Tyrod Taylor immensely. But the move is somewhat confusing as the Bills looked like they were rebuilding when they got rid off both Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods.
Marcell Dareus- The Jaguars reached out to Buffalo trying to bolster the already dangerous defense. The Bills signed Dareus to a six-year $95 million contract in 2015. The Bills traded Dareus for a conditional 2018 sixth-round pick. The move was brilliant ,saving the Bills a total of $54 million over the next five years for a player who has been demoted on and off this year and also violated team rules earlier this season.
Duane Brown- The Texans traded the three-time pro bowler for Jeremy Lane( failed physical), a 2018 fifth-round pick and a 2019 second-round pick. Something that was long coming with all the off-field issues with the front office. Lane failed the team physical and will return to Seattle changing the deal to a 2018 third-round pick and a 2019 second-rounder in exchange for Brown and a 2018 fifth-round pick.
Most bet teams
Rams-3 (if 3.5 buy the hook)
First, let's thank the Giants for the Primetime performance they gave against the Broncos a few weeks back. In a game that was perceived to be a blowout with a double-digit spread, the Giants did the unthinkable and won the game outright as a +13 point road underdogs. Much of this game has to be credited to the Giants defense that caused havoc all night on Trevor Siemian. Fast forward a week when they hosted the Seahawks, and things quickly showed what the reality of the hobbled Giants offense is. New York fell to 1-6 straight up and 3-4 ATS, the team ranks 30th in scoring (14ppg). Both teams are coming off a bye, perfect for the Rams as they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last ten following a bye. Also, the Rams have played really well on the road this year where they are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS.
If you were lucky enough to get the opening number of 4, consider yourself sharp, as this line was quickly pounded by pros everywhere sending it to the 5.5-6 point range. The Bengals are coming off an underwhelming performance where they edged out the Colts and earned a late victory but failed to cover as a big favorite. Since offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor has taken over, the Bengals have been more effective averaging 22 points per game after starting the season 0-4 straight up. Under Lazor, Daltons TD-INT ratio has boosted to 11-4. This game will be dictated by a Jaguars defense that only allows 15 points per game and 300 offensive yards. Look for a long day for Andy Dalton as no quarterback this year has finished better than the QB 18 vs. the stout defense. The Jaguars defense has only allowed one wide receiver to eclipse the 65-yard mark so look for this game to be won on the ground, where the Jacksonville run game has averaged 169 yards per game to the Bengals 78. Leonard Fournette has reached the end zone in six out of six games this year, rumbling for 120 yards total yards per game on 24 touches. Look for a heavy dose of Fournette on Sunday backed by a lethal defense. Jacksonville is now a quiet 7-3 ATS in its last ten games.
Cowboys/ Chiefs over 54
Saints/ Buccaneers over 51
Saints Team Total over 28.5
Teaser of the Week:
2- 6.5 point teasers I love this week using the Seahawks
Seahawks -1/ Colts +13.5
Seahawks -1/ Packers +8.5
Tempted to take the Saints -7 at home where they are rolling at the moment. Only thing is the last few weeks the defense has only been tested by two sub-par quarterbacks in Mitch Trubisky and back up Brett Hundley. The last four meetings between these two teams have been split with no team winning by more than 7 points.
Let me take a second and share something with you that can help you now and long-term. In last weeks episode of the Pre Game line with Fred Faour and RJ Bell, they go into depth on many handicapping tips such as bankroll management and different ways to attack angles. Take some time out and listen to it, I guarantee, you will be better for it.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.