IT'S BASEBALL SEASON
As players report to spring training, here are 5 teams most likely to prevent an Astros repeat
Feb 14, 2018, 7:15 am
There are serious threats to the Astros having another parade. Bob Levey/Getty Images
You want my opinion on if it’s too early to talk baseball? I say no way, Jose Altuve! Spring training is officially under way, so let’s talk baseball!
Football is over. I don’t care about the NBA until the playoffs start, and have never really gotten into hockey. With Opening Day moving up to March 29th this season, we’ll have regular-season baseball before an NCAA Final Four, too. I think it’s finally time to put the amazing season of 2017 behind us and start talking about 2018.
It’s no surprise that most sportsbooks have the Astros as favorites to win it all again this year and for good reason. They lost basically no significant pieces and improved heavily by adding Gerrit Cole earlier this offseason to what should be one of the strongest rotations in the league.
However, repeating in any sport is rarely done, especially in the MLB where it’s only happened a grand total of four times. One big reason for that is championship teams spend the entirety of the next season with a huge target on their backs. You think the Rangers are going to lay down for the Astros on Opening Day like they did most of last year? Think again.
With that in mind, here are the five teams, in my opinion, that could prevent the Astros from repeating in 2018:
5. Los Angeles Angels
It all starts in their own division. If the Astros even want a shot to repeat, they will have to go through the AL West first, and it won’t be as easy this year. The Angels made one of the biggest offseason moves by signing international prospect Shohei Otani, a two-way player that can pitch, play in the outfield, and do damage at the plate. They also picked up infielders Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart, who paired with a healthy Mike Trout can win enough games in 2018 to give the Astros a run for the division. I will be very surprised if the Astros win the division by 20-plus games this year like they did in 2017.
4. Cleveland Indians
Let’s not forget the best team in the AL from 2017, the Indians. They lost a couple of pieces this offseason, but are still just as much a potent team as they were last year when they went on that amazing 22-game winning streak towards the end of the season. Perhaps luckily, the Astros didn’t have to face the Indians in the playoffs in 2017 after Cleveland was bounced by the Yankees. In 2018, I’ll have my same reservations about having to face them if it comes to that because they are still stacked.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
It would be silly to pretend that losing Yu Darvish all of a sudden takes the Dodgers out of contention for being one of the best teams in 2018. They have the last two NL Rookie of the Year recipients in Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger, and arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw. They should have no problem locking up another NL West title to get them into the playoffs where they will be out for blood to redeem themselves. They made it to the World Series last year for a reason, and they could absolutely do it again and get over the hump this year.
2. New York Yankees
The Yankees took the Astros to the limit in their seven-game clash in the ALCS last year, and unfortunately for the Astros, they have made one huge upgrade. The Yankees added one of the best power hitters in baseball, Giancarlo Stanton, this offseason which paired with reigning AL Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge sets up a powerful duo that could double-handedly hit enough homers in 2018 to power their way past any opponent. They also have a decently strong rotation with pitchers Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, and will get a full year out of Sonny Gray, a pickup from 2017.
1. Chicago Cubs
Speaking of Yu Darvish, the team that picked him up? The Chicago Cubs. All that stuff I said about it being hard to repeat, the Cubs experienced that last year. Similar to the Astros, the Cubs will have to make it out of their division first, but with a lineup as good top-to-bottom as they have on both offense and defense, they’re the team I’m the most afraid of facing in the World Series if I’m the Astros. The team that won it all in 2016 is in there and just waiting to break out.
There are still some big names out there in free agency which could greatly change my opinion about this list such as J.D. Martinez, Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer, but for now, these are the five teams I see keeping the Astros away from back-to-back Commissioner’s trophies.
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The Astros have already been swept in four series this season. They were swept in four series all of last season. As Mexico City says bienvenidos to the Astros this weekend, there are certainly more than a few folks fretting that the Astros are already close to saying adios to playoff hopes. The Astros are not at the point of no return, though one can see it out there on the horizon. It wouldn’t take another month of their garbage level 7-19 performance for the season to be essentially down the drain.
If the Astros were in the American League East, they’d already be ten games out of second place. But they’re not! If in the AL Central they’d be eleven and a half games back of Cleveland. But they’re not! Dozens of teams have rebounded to win divisions from larger deficits much later in the season than the Astros face presently. The Seattle Mariners lead the thus far weak AL West at 13-12. The Astros being six and a half games in arrears of the M’s and six back of the Texas Rangers in late April is far from optimal but nowhere near devastating.
Multiple media outlets have noted how few teams historically have started a season in as stumblebum a fashion as the 2024 Astros and wound up making the playoffs. What every outlet I have seen noting that failed to include: this is just the third season since Major League Baseball added a third Wild Card to each league’s postseason field. So, while 7-19 out of the gate is indisputably awful, it is not the death knell to the extent it has been over generations of MLB.
The issue isn’t where the Astros sit in the standings, it’s that they have played atrocious baseball and aren’t providing reason for optimism that a stark turnaround is imminent. The starting rotation is the best hope. Justin Verlander has made two starts. Framber Valdez rejoins the rotation Sunday. Cristian Javier should be a week or so away. Obviously, Ronel Blanco isn’t going to continue pitching as well as he has through his first four starts. But if he is a good number four starter, that’s fine if the top three coming into the season pitch to reasonably hoped for form.
Hunter Brown simply is not a good big league pitcher. Maybe he someday fulfills his potential, but the data at this point are clear. What can Brown do for you? Not much. Spencer Arrighetti needs better command to be a good big league starter. J.P. France was a revelation over his first 17 starts last season, but since has looked like the guy who posted underwhelming numbers when in the minor leagues. If the Astros wind up with 50-plus starts from Brown/Arrighetti/France their goose will probably be cooked.
The only MLB teams with worse staff earned run averages than the Astros’ horrific 5.07 are the Chicago White Sox (Wait! They have Martin Maldonado!) and Colorado Rockies. At 3-22 the White Sox are on an early pace to post the worst record in the history of Major League Baseball. The Rockies never have a chance to post good pitching stats because of the mile high offensive freak show environment in Denver.
Way to go, Joe
Props to Joe Espada for his conviction in making what he believed to be the right call in pulling Verlander after four and a third innings Thursday at Wrigley Field. Verlander allowed no runs but had reached 95 pitches in just the second outing of the injury-delayed start to his season. Not easy for a rookie manager skippering what has been a Titanic journey thus far to pull a surefire Hall of Famer who was two outs away from qualifying for a win. Many were no doubt poised to destroy Espada had Rafael Montero given up the lead in the fifth. Verlander was angry at being pulled from any chance at his 259th career win. Understood, but the manager’s job is to make the decisions he thinks are in the ballclub’s overall best interest. That Montero and Bryan Abreu combined to blow the lead in the sixth is immaterial.
Then there's the offense…
Six runs total the last four games. Scored more than four runs in just one of the last nine games. Timely hitting largely non-existent.
At last check Alex Bregman still hawks that “Breggy Bomb” salsa. At the plate, he’s been mostly stuck in “Breggy Bum” mode, including zero bombs (home runs). 23 games played without a homer is Bregman’s longest drought since 2017 when he had separate 35 and 27 game stretches between dingers. Bregman has a history of slow first months of the season, but never anything as inept as he’s posted thus far. A litany of lazy fly balls, infield pops, and routine grounders add up to a .216 batting average and feeble .566 OPS. Reference point: Martin Maldonado’s worst OPS season with the Astros was .573. If Bregman was a young guy handed a starting job coming out of spring training, if a viable alternative were available, there’s a chance he’d be a Sugar Land Space Cowboy right now. Bregman’s track record makes it a decent bet that he winds up with decent numbers, but nothing special. Certainly nothing remotely worth the 10 years 300 million dollars or whatever Bregman and agent Scott Boras intend(ed) to seek on the free agent market this coming offseason. Two hits Thursday did get Bregman to the 1000 hit plateau for his career.
Despite arriving south of the border with his batting average at .346, even Jose Altuve has his warts. With runners in scoring position, Altuve has one hit this season. One. In 16 at bats. Small sample size, but it counts. That’s .063. Yordan Alvarez has been no great shakes either, five for 24 (.208) with RISP.
One wonders what would happen if the Astros got a hold of and “lost” Jose Abreu’s passport/visa this weekend in Mexico City and Abreu couldn’t get back into the U.S. after the two-game set with the Rockies.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.