Will any September call-ups win a spot on the playoff roster?
Predicting the Astros' postseason roster
Sep 9, 2019, 6:55 am
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images
On September 1st, MLB teams expanded to allow the use of the team's entire 40-man roster. While this rule will change next year, it enables clubs, like the Astros, to bring in some fresher and younger players to rest some of their veterans and stars.
With that, we get an opportunity to see promising prospects log time with their big-league club and dabble with going against some of the best in the game. For the Astros, that's meant the return of Kyle Tucker to the major-league squad for the first time since his struggles last year, as well as some position fill-ins like Myles Straw and Garret Stubbs along with some fresh blood in the bullpen from guys like Jose Urquidy and Cionel Perez.
However, this opportunity is exclusive to September. For teams like Houston, who are preparing for the playoffs, they face a tough challenge, which is trimming that roster back down to 25. It becomes additionally tricky if some of the players brought up to add some depth to allow some rest to star players end up showing star potential themselves.
Even further, Houston also has some key pieces returning from injury soon to retake their places on the roster. These include Carlos Correa, Ryan Pressly, and if all goes well, Brad Peacock. So, with a lot of moving pieces, I want to offer my prediction of the Astros' 25-man postseason roster:
The givens
Let's get the easy ones out of the way. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume Carlos Correa returns in the coming weeks and stays healthy. Also, Yuli Gurriel is expected to return this week, so he's in too. That means this is your playoff starting infield:
1) Yuli Gurriel - 1B
2) Jose Altuve - 2B
3) Alex Bregman - 3B
4) Carlos Correa - SS
Another set of players that should be a lock is the pitching rotation. On Sunday, A.J. Hinch announced that he would be going with a 4-man rotation the rest of the regular season, with two bullpen days along the way when they hit five-straight days with games. I would expect that means they are gearing up for that same set of starters to roll into October:
5) Justin Verlander - SP
6) Gerrit Cole - SP
7) Zack Greinke - SP
8) Wade Miley - SP
Then, you've got some outfielders, hitters, and your primary catcher who will have earned their spots:
9) George Springer - OF
10) Michael Brantley - OF / DH
11 ) Yordan Alvarez - OF / DH
12) Robinson Chirinos - C
That brings us to the bullpen, where you can go ahead and get your pens out for a few arms that are all but guaranteed to be used in the highest of leverage situations in October:
13) Roberto Osuna - RP
14) Ryan Pressly - RP
15) Will Harris - RP
16) Brad Peacock - RP (If Healthy)
That's your set of guys that if you could use them every day to complete a game, you'd expect to win against anyone. That leaves nine more spots.
More depth
Past the above list of no-doubters, you have a few more spots that should belong to your multi-position players, some position depth, and next set of relievers:
17) Aledmys Diaz - IF
18) Josh Reddick - OF
19) Jake Marisnick - OF
20) Martin Maldonado - C
21) Collin McHugh - RP (if healthy)
22) Hector Rondon - RP
23) Josh James - RP
Diaz is your fill-in if you have to fill a hole in the infield. Despite a lot of debate I've seen regarding Reddick, I see no reason to exclude him from the roster in October, and I don't see a reason to leave Marisnick's terrific defensive ability out.
McHugh has a big asterisk next to him right now because of his health, but assuming he can pitch, I think they'll bring him along. Then, I currently have Rondon and James in for their recent success. James has looked sharp since returning from injury, and Rondon has allowed just three runs over his last sixteen appearances.
Who's in, who's out
That leaves two more spots available. I think considering they've got the depth they need on the field with the 23 guys listed above, that they use those for two more arms in the bullpen:
24) Chris Devenski - RP
25) Joe Smith - RP
Devenski has had a rocky year, but I think he still has the trust of Houston's coaching staff. As far as Joe Smith, he did not start his year until July after returning from injury and has performed well, so a combination of less wear and tear along with success, in my opinion, earns him a spot.
With that, I don't have a lot of upsets or controversy taking place going into the playoffs. I think that the Astros are on pace to win 100 games again this year primarily due to the success of the 25 guys listed above, so I don't think that it will be the time to try and experiment. Still, though, Houston will have a solid group of guys ready to come onto the roster should injuries arise:
Garret Stubbs - C
Kyle Tucker - OF
Cionel Perez - RP
Joe Biagini - RP
Framber Valez - RP
In any case, the Astros will have a good problem on their hands trying to construct their playoff roster, because instead of trying to guess which players are worth the spots, they will be instead be splitting hairs on which players will have to be left off.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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