Will any September call-ups win a spot on the playoff roster?
Predicting the Astros' postseason roster
Sep 9, 2019, 6:55 am
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images
On September 1st, MLB teams expanded to allow the use of the team's entire 40-man roster. While this rule will change next year, it enables clubs, like the Astros, to bring in some fresher and younger players to rest some of their veterans and stars.
With that, we get an opportunity to see promising prospects log time with their big-league club and dabble with going against some of the best in the game. For the Astros, that's meant the return of Kyle Tucker to the major-league squad for the first time since his struggles last year, as well as some position fill-ins like Myles Straw and Garret Stubbs along with some fresh blood in the bullpen from guys like Jose Urquidy and Cionel Perez.
However, this opportunity is exclusive to September. For teams like Houston, who are preparing for the playoffs, they face a tough challenge, which is trimming that roster back down to 25. It becomes additionally tricky if some of the players brought up to add some depth to allow some rest to star players end up showing star potential themselves.
Even further, Houston also has some key pieces returning from injury soon to retake their places on the roster. These include Carlos Correa, Ryan Pressly, and if all goes well, Brad Peacock. So, with a lot of moving pieces, I want to offer my prediction of the Astros' 25-man postseason roster:
The givens
Let's get the easy ones out of the way. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume Carlos Correa returns in the coming weeks and stays healthy. Also, Yuli Gurriel is expected to return this week, so he's in too. That means this is your playoff starting infield:
1) Yuli Gurriel - 1B
2) Jose Altuve - 2B
3) Alex Bregman - 3B
4) Carlos Correa - SS
Another set of players that should be a lock is the pitching rotation. On Sunday, A.J. Hinch announced that he would be going with a 4-man rotation the rest of the regular season, with two bullpen days along the way when they hit five-straight days with games. I would expect that means they are gearing up for that same set of starters to roll into October:
5) Justin Verlander - SP
6) Gerrit Cole - SP
7) Zack Greinke - SP
8) Wade Miley - SP
Then, you've got some outfielders, hitters, and your primary catcher who will have earned their spots:
9) George Springer - OF
10) Michael Brantley - OF / DH
11 ) Yordan Alvarez - OF / DH
12) Robinson Chirinos - C
That brings us to the bullpen, where you can go ahead and get your pens out for a few arms that are all but guaranteed to be used in the highest of leverage situations in October:
13) Roberto Osuna - RP
14) Ryan Pressly - RP
15) Will Harris - RP
16) Brad Peacock - RP (If Healthy)
That's your set of guys that if you could use them every day to complete a game, you'd expect to win against anyone. That leaves nine more spots.
More depth
Past the above list of no-doubters, you have a few more spots that should belong to your multi-position players, some position depth, and next set of relievers:
17) Aledmys Diaz - IF
18) Josh Reddick - OF
19) Jake Marisnick - OF
20) Martin Maldonado - C
21) Collin McHugh - RP (if healthy)
22) Hector Rondon - RP
23) Josh James - RP
Diaz is your fill-in if you have to fill a hole in the infield. Despite a lot of debate I've seen regarding Reddick, I see no reason to exclude him from the roster in October, and I don't see a reason to leave Marisnick's terrific defensive ability out.
McHugh has a big asterisk next to him right now because of his health, but assuming he can pitch, I think they'll bring him along. Then, I currently have Rondon and James in for their recent success. James has looked sharp since returning from injury, and Rondon has allowed just three runs over his last sixteen appearances.
Who's in, who's out
That leaves two more spots available. I think considering they've got the depth they need on the field with the 23 guys listed above, that they use those for two more arms in the bullpen:
24) Chris Devenski - RP
25) Joe Smith - RP
Devenski has had a rocky year, but I think he still has the trust of Houston's coaching staff. As far as Joe Smith, he did not start his year until July after returning from injury and has performed well, so a combination of less wear and tear along with success, in my opinion, earns him a spot.
With that, I don't have a lot of upsets or controversy taking place going into the playoffs. I think that the Astros are on pace to win 100 games again this year primarily due to the success of the 25 guys listed above, so I don't think that it will be the time to try and experiment. Still, though, Houston will have a solid group of guys ready to come onto the roster should injuries arise:
Garret Stubbs - C
Kyle Tucker - OF
Cionel Perez - RP
Joe Biagini - RP
Framber Valez - RP
In any case, the Astros will have a good problem on their hands trying to construct their playoff roster, because instead of trying to guess which players are worth the spots, they will be instead be splitting hairs on which players will have to be left off.
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The World Series is in full swing and as we wait to see which team brings home the hardware, odds have already been released for the 2025 season.
According to Draft Kings and Fan Duel, the Astros have the sixth-best odds to win the championship next season. So while many in the national media are burying the Astros and saying the window is closed, the oddsmakers don't agree.
Of course, these odds have been released before free agency, so things will change based on the moves made this offseason.
For Houston, Alex Bregman's future with the team is up in the air. So that could have a big impact on their chances in 2025. Something else to monitor heading into the offseason is if the club would consider trading either Framber Valdez or Kyle Tucker.
If Breggy leaves, it's hard to imagine Houston moving on from Tucker. They can't afford to lose two of their best bats, and the team clearly has more depth in the rotation than they do in the outfield.
Trading Framber could clear about $18 million off the books and bring some top prospects into the farm system. And if Bregman is off the books as well, perhaps the team could afford to re-sign Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi would be significantly cheaper than signing Valdez to a long-term deal.
This could change the market
Another thing to consider this offseason is super agent Scott Boras, who also happens to represent Bregman. Boras was unable to secure blockbuster contracts for several of his clients last offseason. Many had to settle for shorter prove it deals.
It's fair to wonder if his clients will be more willing to take the first deal they are offered that they view as acceptable. As opposed to rolling the dice on what Boras is promising.
Maybe this could be a good thing for Bregman's chances of returning, if the Astros are willing to give him a reasonable offer.
Finally, Yankee GM Brian Cashman is still blaming the Astros for not being in a World Series over the last 15 years. We thought we were past this, but if he wants to go there again, we're more than happy to put him in his place!
Don't miss the video above for the full conversation!
*The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays!
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