Will any September call-ups win a spot on the playoff roster?
Predicting the Astros' postseason roster
Sep 9, 2019, 6:55 am
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images
On September 1st, MLB teams expanded to allow the use of the team's entire 40-man roster. While this rule will change next year, it enables clubs, like the Astros, to bring in some fresher and younger players to rest some of their veterans and stars.
With that, we get an opportunity to see promising prospects log time with their big-league club and dabble with going against some of the best in the game. For the Astros, that's meant the return of Kyle Tucker to the major-league squad for the first time since his struggles last year, as well as some position fill-ins like Myles Straw and Garret Stubbs along with some fresh blood in the bullpen from guys like Jose Urquidy and Cionel Perez.
However, this opportunity is exclusive to September. For teams like Houston, who are preparing for the playoffs, they face a tough challenge, which is trimming that roster back down to 25. It becomes additionally tricky if some of the players brought up to add some depth to allow some rest to star players end up showing star potential themselves.
Even further, Houston also has some key pieces returning from injury soon to retake their places on the roster. These include Carlos Correa, Ryan Pressly, and if all goes well, Brad Peacock. So, with a lot of moving pieces, I want to offer my prediction of the Astros' 25-man postseason roster:
The givens
Let's get the easy ones out of the way. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume Carlos Correa returns in the coming weeks and stays healthy. Also, Yuli Gurriel is expected to return this week, so he's in too. That means this is your playoff starting infield:
1) Yuli Gurriel - 1B
2) Jose Altuve - 2B
3) Alex Bregman - 3B
4) Carlos Correa - SS
Another set of players that should be a lock is the pitching rotation. On Sunday, A.J. Hinch announced that he would be going with a 4-man rotation the rest of the regular season, with two bullpen days along the way when they hit five-straight days with games. I would expect that means they are gearing up for that same set of starters to roll into October:
5) Justin Verlander - SP
6) Gerrit Cole - SP
7) Zack Greinke - SP
8) Wade Miley - SP
Then, you've got some outfielders, hitters, and your primary catcher who will have earned their spots:
9) George Springer - OF
10) Michael Brantley - OF / DH
11 ) Yordan Alvarez - OF / DH
12) Robinson Chirinos - C
That brings us to the bullpen, where you can go ahead and get your pens out for a few arms that are all but guaranteed to be used in the highest of leverage situations in October:
13) Roberto Osuna - RP
14) Ryan Pressly - RP
15) Will Harris - RP
16) Brad Peacock - RP (If Healthy)
That's your set of guys that if you could use them every day to complete a game, you'd expect to win against anyone. That leaves nine more spots.
More depth
Past the above list of no-doubters, you have a few more spots that should belong to your multi-position players, some position depth, and next set of relievers:
17) Aledmys Diaz - IF
18) Josh Reddick - OF
19) Jake Marisnick - OF
20) Martin Maldonado - C
21) Collin McHugh - RP (if healthy)
22) Hector Rondon - RP
23) Josh James - RP
Diaz is your fill-in if you have to fill a hole in the infield. Despite a lot of debate I've seen regarding Reddick, I see no reason to exclude him from the roster in October, and I don't see a reason to leave Marisnick's terrific defensive ability out.
McHugh has a big asterisk next to him right now because of his health, but assuming he can pitch, I think they'll bring him along. Then, I currently have Rondon and James in for their recent success. James has looked sharp since returning from injury, and Rondon has allowed just three runs over his last sixteen appearances.
Who's in, who's out
That leaves two more spots available. I think considering they've got the depth they need on the field with the 23 guys listed above, that they use those for two more arms in the bullpen:
24) Chris Devenski - RP
25) Joe Smith - RP
Devenski has had a rocky year, but I think he still has the trust of Houston's coaching staff. As far as Joe Smith, he did not start his year until July after returning from injury and has performed well, so a combination of less wear and tear along with success, in my opinion, earns him a spot.
With that, I don't have a lot of upsets or controversy taking place going into the playoffs. I think that the Astros are on pace to win 100 games again this year primarily due to the success of the 25 guys listed above, so I don't think that it will be the time to try and experiment. Still, though, Houston will have a solid group of guys ready to come onto the roster should injuries arise:
Garret Stubbs - C
Kyle Tucker - OF
Cionel Perez - RP
Joe Biagini - RP
Framber Valez - RP
In any case, the Astros will have a good problem on their hands trying to construct their playoff roster, because instead of trying to guess which players are worth the spots, they will be instead be splitting hairs on which players will have to be left off.
- It’s the first place Houston Astros against the first place Los Angeles Dodgers as they open their latest head-to-head series. This is not a recording. The two most dominant powers in the sport over the last decade gather at Dodger Stadium this Independence Day weekend. The Astros have a sizable lead in pursuit of their eighth American League West championship in the last nine years. The Dodgers have an even more sizable lead as they chase their fourth straight National League West crown, which would be their 12th in 13 years. Each franchise has won two World Series in that time frame, each has lost two. All Astro and Dodger parties would sign off immediately on a 2025 World Series matchup. This three-game set carries no big picture significance, but every game counts, and it’s just fun seeing these two get after it. It would be more fun if the Astros had Yordan Alvarez available. Then again, the Dodgers won’t have Josh Fields.
Both continue to roll along despite rashes of injuries. When the Astros awoke May 24 their record sat at 26-25. Since then they have gone 26-10. That is a dominant stretch despite this clearly not being a dominant team. The still Alvarez-less offense is mediocre. So is the starting pitching apart from the one-two awesome punch that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been. When Brown or Valdez has been the Astros’ starting pitcher this season, the team record is 25-9. With anyone else making the start, 27-26. They have been every bit as dynamic a duo so far in 2025 that Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were for the Astros in 2019 when Verlander edged out Cole to win his third Cy Young Award. Brown is a lock to be named to his first American League All-Star team this Sunday. Valdez is worthy of a third consecutive selection but could get caught in a numbers squeeze. Eight or nine starting pitchers are picked for each league.
The Dodgers won’t face Brown this weekend, but will have to deal with Valdez on Saturday night. His mound counterpart will be Shohei Ohtani. Oooooooh! Framber didn’t give up a run in 13 innings over his last two starts, and over his last 10 outings has a super-spiffy 1.72 earned run average. The amazing Ohtani is easing back into pitching after his second Tommy John surgery. Ohtani has started three games, totaling just four innings. He has yet to throw 30 pitches in an outing. Saturday he probably will be allowed 30 to 40.
Arms race
While Friday’s outing isn’t remotely a make or break start for Lance McCullers, it does speak to a significant question the Astros hope to find a pleasing answer to over the remainder of the regular season. Who is their third starting pitcher in a playoff series? After Brown and Valdez there is simply no one who inspires confidence at this point. McCullers has been awful his last two times out, jacking up his ERA to 6.61 eight starts into his season. 20 walks issued in 32 2 /3 innings pitched is glaringly bad. McCullers is still reasonably in ramp up mode, but given his injury history along with performance concerns, the third starter spot can’t be considered his to lose. Spencer Arrighetti’s resume is thin but his return at the level he pitched at after the All-Star break last season would be massive. Colt Gordon and Brandon Walter have both done some nice fill-in work, but no one plausibly wants them starting what would be a do or die game if the Astros wind up in a game three of a best-of-three Wild Card series.
Historic achievement
Not as if it’s subplot or anything this weekend, but let’s call it notable that the two active career hits leaders in Major League Baseball share the field this weekend. Jose Altuve this week vaulted past Jeff Bagwell for second in Astros’ history behind Craig Biggio. Altuve enters the weekend 743 hits behind Biggio. He is no lock to catch him before Altuve’s five-year contract expires at the end of the 2029 season. Altuve will be 39 then. Biggio was 41 when he rapped his 3000th hit, then added 60 more before beginning the waiting game for election to the Hall of Fame.
Like Biggio got and presumably someday Altuve will get, Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman will get the call from Cooperstown some day. Like Altuve, Freeman is 35 years old, has won a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove, and with his selection this week been named an All-Star nine times. Aaron Judge may change this in the next couple of years, but among active players only Mike Trout (by a long shot) has compiled more Baseball-Reference offensive Wins Above Replacement than Freeman (second) and Altuve (third).
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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