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Rockets and Astros might win again before Texans do

Rockets and Astros might win again before Texans do
Deshaun Watson is not enough. Bob Levey/Getty Images

Last week I was pleading with Houston sports fans to stop crying. Despite the incessant crying, Houston sports fans have a lot to be happy about. The Astros just won a World Series. The Rockets are poised to make a run at another title. The Texans, on the other hand, are a different story.

Early season struggles be damned, the Astros have what it takes to be the first MLB team to repeat since the Yankees won three in a row from ’98-’00. The pitching staff is loaded. Although starter-heavy, I think the bullpen will get figured out eventually. The bats may be hit or miss for now. But a baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. Water always finds its level, and so will the Astros’ lineup.

The Rockets dropped Game 3 against the Timberwolves, but dominated in Game 4. Game 5 on Wednesday should be the swansong for Minnesota, and a moving on ceremony for the Rockets. They will get Luc Mbah a Moute back at some point, which will add to their rotation. I’ve said it before, and I’ll continue to say so until proven wrong: this team can win an NBA title this season.

Which bring us to the Texans. This team has some serious flaws, despite giving the appearance of being a “sexy pick” to make some noise this year. They don’t have a first or second round pick in this year’s draft. Instead, they used those picks to trade out of a bad quarterback and back into a franchise quarterback. That said, none of this would be necessary had they done a better job in previous years. The free agent class they brought in only had one recognizable name/difference maker in safety Tyrann Mathieu. I’ve spoken with some credible sources who believe he may not be used as effectively here as he was in Arizona. Cornerback Aaron Colvin should provide decent depth at the position, but this unit needs more playmakers, not more role players. Moves along the offensive line may pan out, and they may not. Offensive line play is as much about talent as it is about chemistry and scheme. Senio Kelemete, Zach Fulton, and Seantrel Henderson should improve the line, but an improvement isn’t saying much considering how abysmal they were previously.

Did I mention the Texans’ two most prolific pass rushers are coming off season-ending injuries? J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus shouldn’t be expected to return to form this season. Jadeveon Clowney is a monster off the edge, but could use some help from the aforementioned duo. When a team’s pass rush isn’t up to par and its secondary can’t cover a kindergartner with a king-sized blanket, that’s a recipe for disaster. This defense “fell from top 10 to not mentioned at all” to borrow a line from Jay Z.

That said, I firmly believe the Astros and Rockets will win championships again before the Texans win one. The Texans are in no shape to contend at the moment, and don’t have the necessary tools to build a winner this offseason. Maybe after the next couple offseasons, provided they use their draft picks and cap space wisely, people will begin to take the Texans seriously as a contender. Until then, the only hope in Houston sports for titles will lie in the Astros and Rockets.  

 

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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