The Pallilog
Rockets' fall to fourth disappointing, but matchup with Jazz favors them
Apr 12, 2019, 6:41 am
Composite photo by Jack Brame
Quite a two night stretch that saw the Rockets blow the second seed in the Western Conference and fall to fourth. Second time this season the Rockets wasted a huge lead against the Thunder. This time up 14 in the fourth quarter wasn't enough. It seemed as if Wednesday night Denver would grant the Rockets a reprieve, then the Nuggets rallied from 11 points down with under three and a half minutes to play to pull a game out of their posteriors vs. Minnesota to clinch the two seed. That as Portland wound up rallying from 28 points down to win a game it blatantly had set itself up to lose. As a result, with the Trail Blazers' season series win over the Rockets giving them the tiebreaker, the Rockets drop to a fourth seed first round matchup pairing with fifth seed Utah.
On the radio show Thursday Jeff Van Gundy said the Jazz is by far the toughest first round opponent the Rockets could have drawn. Not sure I agree with that relative to the Thunder, but Utah definitely looms as more problematic than seventh seeded San Antonio likely would have been if the Rockets had secured the two seed. Before losing a meaningless season finale the Jazz won 13 out of 15 games. However, only two of the wins came over playoff teams.
Utah's offense is middling, led by second year guard Donovan Mitchell. In the second round last spring the Rockets rendered then rookie Mitchell very inefficient in dusting the Jazz four games to one in the second round. The Jazz defense is elite, anchored by center Rudy Gobert, the best defensive big man in the game. If the Rockets get Gobert in foul trouble, the Jazz should be muted pretty easily. His presence in the paint and ability to recover in pick and roll situations is the biggest reason Utah can aggressively contest and close out on the perimeter and leads to the most fascinating statistical contrast in this series: Jazz opponents took the fewest three point shots in the league. You well know about the Rockets' again record-shattering bombs away mode.
Early test
There is no such thing as a baseball showdown series in mid-April, but the Seattle Mariners try to make a modest statement as they play host to the Astros for three games at newly renamed T-Mobile Park this weekend. The M's 13-2 start is the biggest early season positive surprise in Major League Baseball. In the last 33 seasons Seattle is just the third team to win 13 of its first 15 games. The Mariner offense has been crushing it, scoring at least five runs in all but one game thus far. The Mariners have blasted 36 home runs already, becoming the first MLB team ever to hit at least one homer in all of its first 15 games.
The Astros' stumbling 2-5 season opening road trip already seems a distant memory. After a stink bomb of an offense on that trip, the obviously potent attack has roared to life, leading to the Astros sweeping a multi-series home stand for the first time since the end of the 2004 season when they won six straight games to snare a National League Wild Card spot. Jose Altuve looks great, Carlos Correa looks great. That's because given good health, they're great! Michael Brantley is performing right about as one would expect, George Springer similarly. Alex Bregman is Alex Bregman (don't push it on that minorly tweaked hamstring Alex). This lineup should score truckloads of runs.
It's dueling six game winning streaks and dueling southpaw Wades in the Friday night series opener, with Wade Miley pitching for the Astros, Wade LeBlanc for the Mariners. Then we'll see how much slugging the Mariners can muster Saturday and Sunday when faced with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The Mariners last played a postseason game in 2001. That's the longest drought in the big four North American leagues.
Final thoughts
What a great Final Four it was in Minneapolis. Virginia capping its bounce back from ultimate humiliation of last year being the first ever number one seed to lose to a 16, to ultimate jubilation of topping Texas Tech in overtime to win the National Championship. If a Red Raider, given the choice would you take: A. having won the title but head coach Chris Beard then opting for a job elsewhere, or B. runner-up with Beard staying in Lubbock? I'd think A would win a secret ballot vote tally. The reality of B is quite good.
Buzzer beaters
1. More likely: Rockets fall to the Jazz in round 1 or the Rockets dethrone the Warriors in round 2? 2. Less than two weeks to an extra critical NFL Draft for the Texans 3. Best present NBA nicknames: Bronze-Kevin Durant "The Slim Reaper" (though supposedly KD doesn't like it) Silver-Rudy Gobert "The French Rejection" Gold-Rudy Gobert "The Stifle Tower."
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The phrase most associated with the late former Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders’ owner Al Davis was “Just win baby.” One has to think Al would strongly approve of the Houston Astros. Going to the fifth inning Sunday against the Mariners the Astros were facing a 3-0 deficit and staring at the prospect of being swept out of Seattle and having their American League West division lead slashed to just two games. Now after roaring from behind with 11 unanswered runs to take the series finale in the Emerald City, and then sweeping three games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Astros stand six games up with 60 games to go. So, if the Astros play just .500 ball the rest of the way (which would have them finish with 90 victories), the Mariners have to play .600 ball to catch them. If somehow the Astros are to maintain their season long win pace to the finish line they’d close with 95 wins, and the race is already over unless someone thinks the M’s are poised to uncork a finishing kick of 41-19 or better. It’s quite a pleasing perch from which the Astros survey the standings. Coupled with the freefalling Detroit Tigers having dropped nine of their last ten games, the Astros amazingly start this homestand sporting the best record in the entire American League. On the homestand they follow four games against the team with the second-worst record in the American League (Athletics) with three versus the team with the second-worst record in the National League (Nationals). I know, I know. There is fear of the Astros playing down to the competition, but that is not the way to look at it. A bad Major League team can beat a good team in a series at any time. If it happens it happens, but it wouldn’t mean it happened only because the Astros didn’t take their opponent seriously. This isn’t the NBA.
Trade deadline looming
Of course, It hasn’t been all good news with Isaac Paredes badly injuring a hamstring Sunday. Paredes could be back in three weeks (doubtful), he could miss the rest of the season. GET WELL SOON JEREMY PENA! Lance McCullers’s latest Injured List stint could be considered addition by subtraction for the Astros’ starting rotation. Whether impacted by his blister issue, Lance was lousy in four of his last five starts. So, one week from the trade deadline, if general manager Dana Brown has the ammo to get one deal done, where does he make the upgrade? The left-handed hitter everyone knows the Astros can use regardless of Yordan Alvarez’s status is a natural priority. With the Astros’ weak farm system it would seem difficult for Brown to put forth the winning offer for the top bats that could be in play. That probably rings even truer now, since if he wasn’t already untouchable, Brice Matthews may have cemented untouchable status by darn near winning the first two games of the Diamondbacks series by himself. Matthews is going to struggle mightily to hit for a good average if he can’t make notable improvement in the contact department, but the power is obvious, as is the athleticism in the field. The 23-year-old Matthews and 22-year-old Cam Smith (though presently mired in a three for 36 slump) are the clear (and right now only) two young shining beacons for the lineup’s future.
You can't have enough pitching
While Brandon Walter has been a revelation, a starting pitcher would make sense unless the decision is to hope Spencer Arrighetti and/or Cristian Javier can contribute meaningfully upon return to the big leagues, likely sometime next month. Going after a reliever or two may make more sense in terms of availability and transaction cost. Overall the Astros’ bullpen has been excellent, but Bryan Abreu is the only trustworthy right-handed option for Joe Espada. Back to Walter. Barely two months ago no way Walter himself would have believed he’d be where he is now. Nine starts since being summoned basically out of desperation, Walter has a 3.35 earned run average, and a stunning 13 to one strikeout-to-walk ratio with his 52 strikeouts against a measly four walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings. Walter has pitched fabulously in seven of his nine starts. He only has two wins, but that’s because in five of the six Walter starts the Astros didn’t win the game they failed to score more than two runs. Walter turns 29 years old in September. His only prior big league experience was 23 innings in relief with a 6.26 ERA for the Red Sox two years ago. The Bosox released him last August, the Astros signed him basically as minor league depth. Look at him (and the Astros) now.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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