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"That's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off."
- Dodgeball
So the Rockets made a big move on Thursday, agreeing to trade Chris Paul and draft picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Russell Westbrook.
It gives the Rockets two recent MVPs, and former Thunder teammates. It also unloads Chris Paul's onerous contract, one that was looking worse and worse as Paul declined significantly last year. Granted, they will be paying Westbrook more money and for more term, but he is younger and a better player at this stage of his career.
Let's take a look at the deal:
The positives
Westbrook at this stage of his career is a much better player than Paul. It gives the Rockets an incredible 1-2 punch with two MVPs in their prime.
They also appear to be keeping some key elements around them - Clint Capela, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker.
On the surface, they get a significantly better player, make a major splash for the owner and the fan base and create an intriguing contender in a loaded Western Conference. Their backcourt should match up with any team in basketball, and in a suddenly wide open title race, the Rockets are positioned for another run.
The negatives
Can Harden and Westbrook - two high volume, ball dominant guards - co-exist? They are almost the same player. There will be concerns about Westbrook fitting in coach Mike D'Antoni's system. The Rockets give up two first-round picks in the deal, but they have not had interest in the draft in years. If the volatile duo can't co-exist, this could backfire big time.
Westbrook's contract is massive. He is locked up until 2022-23 and will make in excess of $40 million the last three years of the deal.
What's next?
The Thunder might make another deal, sending Paul to a contender - Lakers? 76ers? Heat? - for even more picks. They are in full rebuild mode. If the Rockets can keep their core around the two superstars, they should be a serious contender in the West.
The bottom line
The contract is not really a factor. That is the going rate for a superstar, and Westbrook is that. As for co-existing? Remember, people had the same concerns about Paul. It worked in Year 1, not so much in Year 2. Westbrook, like Harden and Paul, has never really been a postseason master. That will be a concern. But the Rockets had to make this move. They simply were not going to be good enough if Paul continued to regress as he did last year. They get a significantly better player in the deal without sacrificing anything of value.
Will they be a better team? Probably. Good enough to win a title? Maybe, maybe not. But they were not going to be before the trade, so it is a move they had to make.
If nothing else, it will be entertaining.
Takeaways from the Tigers sweep of the Astros
Total butt kicking. The offense was dreadful, scoring just two runs over three games. However, what’s killing the offense the most is the outfield. Outside of when Altuve plays left field, Houston doesn’t have another major league-quality outfielder right now. Jesus Sanchez not only swung at a Charlie Morton curveball that hit him in the knee, he’s also ice-cold, going 0-for-28 at the plate. At least he’s someone you expect to turn things around, but he’s in a huge slump currently. Beyond him, Jacob Melton, Taylor Trammell, and Chas McCormick have all been dragging down the offense. Cam Smith is struggling too, with just one hit in his last seven games.
Is Framber Valdez going to be okay?
Starting pitching was another big issue against the Tigers, and Valdez was a key part of the problem, basically losing the finale in the first inning after allowing six runs. This isn’t an outlier—he’s got a 7+ ERA through four starts in August. Spencer Arrighetti isn’t faring much better, posting a 7+ ERA through three starts. One silver lining with Valdez: the Tigers know him well. They had success against him in the playoffs last season, and it looks like they’re continuing that formula—force him to throw strikes, hit the other way on the sinker, and if the curveball isn’t up, let it go. AJ Hinch knows the deal.
Is the return of Yordan Alvarez enough to boost the offense?
It has to be. The only real way to give this lineup a spark is getting Yordan and Jake Meyers back. Yordan had a successful first rehab outing, collecting a couple of hits, a walk, and even a stolen base. Adding him back to the top of the lineup gives the Astros a formidable top four: Peña, Altuve, Yordan, and Correa. As for Meyers, the outfield has been the biggest drag on the offense. The key is whether he can continue to hit near .300 when he returns from injury. If he does, Altuve and Meyers in the outfield makes a huge difference, and Joe Espada can figure out right field with Sanchez and Smith.
Is the schedule not as soft as anticipated?
We’ve seen some strange results across the league this week, and some of that has to be chalked up to the Dog Days of Summer. Players are tired, and results have been wild. Thankfully, the Mariners are struggling too, giving the Astros some breathing room. Player adjustments after the trade deadline could also be a factor—Sanchez, anyone? Many big free agents have struggled immediately after changing teams, Walker and Juan Soto included.
Can they recover and take advantage of bad teams?
One thing we know about this year’s Astros: they can flip the switch and win multiple series on a moment’s notice. They’re just as capable of sweeping a series as they are of getting swept. Let’s hope that starts with four wins in Baltimore.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode on Thursday!
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