ROCKET SCIENCE

Rockets: The case to keep Chris Paul

Rockets: The case to keep Chris Paul
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Since it was signed in the summer of 2018, there's been a load uproar about the size and length of Rockets' guard Chris Paul's contract. A lot of it is justified; Paul will be earning $44.2 million as a 36-year-old point guard and history has not been particularly favorable to point guards of his size aging down the stretch of their career. Paul also took a noticeable step back last season after a fantastic 2017-18 campaign with the Rockets. His struggles really reared their ugly heads in the playoffs - where Paul has traditionally excelled.

Chris Paul 2017-18 season:

18.6 PPG, 7.9 APG, 5.4 RPG, and 1.7 STL / 60.4% True Shooting / 24.4 PER

Chris Paul 2018-19 season:

15.6 PPG, 8.2 APG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.0 STL / 56.0% True Shooting / 19.7 PER

However, the discourse surrounding Paul has become muddled. As the Rockets enter a complicated offseason in which all options are being evaluated, it seems as though all anyone wants to talk about is how Houston could possibly move Paul's contract or how leveraged the Rockets are because of Paul's contract. Paul is now talked about as exclusively a burden to the Rockets rather than a very good basketball player who happens to be on a less than ideal contract. In a rush to fantasy ship him out to any suitor who will take him, the question of "Will a Chris Paul trade improve Houston's championship odds?" is being completely ignored.

And the answer to that question? Probably not.

If the Rockets were to trade Paul tomorrow, it's unlikely they get the kind of return that would help their immediate title odds with a soon-to-be 30-year-old James Harden. We have probably arrived at the point where Paul's value to Houston is probably being undervalued by the general public. Paul may not be the same player he was four years ago, but that doesn't mean his contract has suddenly become so toxic the Rockets have to dump him.

To start, some of the best value Paul brings Houston that often gets neglected is on the defensive side of the ball. It may have gone under-the-radar this season with Houston tailing off defensively and the late push to get P.J. Tucker into an All-Defense team, but Paul, at age 34, had a sneaky case for All-Defense himself.

Houston Rockets Defensive RTG:

Chris Paul ON the floor: 103.2

Chris Paul OFF the floor: 111.2

Paul may not be as quick laterally as he once was, but his IQ and awareness as a defender off the ball is off the charts good. His ability to anticipate where a pass is going and when it's going to be made can only be matched by a handful of players, as evidenced by his two steals per game.

If you're even a slightly below average ball handler, Paul is just going to take the ball away from you.

Although the Rockets didn't switch as much last year as they did the year before, Paul's physicality made it harder for even bigger offensive players to gain an advantage.

For all the talk of Paul's offensive numbers taking a dip this year, Paul's defense hardly slipped. That being said, Paul still provided a ton of offensive value for Houston despite the slip in efficiency. Much like his defense, Paul's passing has yet to take a significant dip.

Paul's ability to find roll men at the basket, particularly in pick and roll, is really valuable for Houston when Harden is on the bench. The Rockets are already accustomed to running spread pick and roll when Harden is on the floor and Paul provides a clean outlet to keep that flow going.

His ability to find open shooters is even more impressive, particularly on the break. Contrary to what you might think, Paul is someone who likes to push the pace whenever possible while Harden would rather grind it down. Because of this, the transition offense is typically a lot crisper when orchestrated by Paul

Houston Rockets pace:

With Harden: 98.47

With Paul: 101.35

One of the bigger and more unusual drop-offs in Paul's game this season was his shooting. Paul has historically been an excellent three-point shooter (37.0% for his career), so it was quite bizarre to see his percentage drop down to 35.8% this season from 38.0% the prior season. The same was the case for his mid-range shooting, which fell to 47.6% from where it was a year ago (53.9%). Upon further analysis, it looks like a big reason for this decline ha been his drop-off as an isolation scorer as a whole from the previous year.

In 2017-18, Paul scored 1.10 points per possession in isolation (90.8 percentile) on a staggering 5.1 attempts per game. In 2018-19, that number dropped to 0.92 points per possession (63.3 percentile) on 4.7 attempts per game. Paul's off-the-dribble three-pointers just weren't sinking at the same rate they were a year ago.

2017-18 Chris Paul 3-PT shooting:

Catch and shoot: 41.1%

Pull-up: 38.1%

2018-19: Chris Paul 3-PT shooting:

Catch and shoot: 43.1%

Pull-up 34.5%

The easy conclusion for one to draw here is age-related decline. However, if you look back to the 2015-16 season, you'll find another random blip where Paul declined radically as a shooter.

Chris Paul pull-up 3-PT shooting:

2014-15: 37.7%

2015-16: 33.3%

Chris Paul mid-range shooting:

2014-15: 49.5%

2015-16: 45.7%

Paul also only 0.91 points per possession in isolation (71.8 percentile) in 2015-16. So, was it age-related regression then too when Paul was still only 30 years old? The better conclusion to draw might be that Paul had another career blip shooting season. That's not to say Paul didn't decline last season, but rather it's more likely Chris Paul gets back closer to where he was in 2017-18 as a shooter next season than he was last season.

Where you see Paul's decline most prevalent is his first step and finishing at the rim. In 2017-18, Paul drove to the basket 11.7 times per game and finished 49.4% of the time. In 2018-19, Paul finished 44.3% of the time on 12.1 drives per game. Paul isn't as explosive as he once was and this makes much more sense with what we know about aging as a basketball player compared to three-point percentage. As an older player, Paul's not going to be the same driver he once was, but that was expected when Daryl Morey offered him his contract in 2018.

Saying Chris Paul is not the same player he was a few years ago is a totally reasonable conclusion to draw. However, it's also reasonable to say that he's still a highly impactful basketball player and that his decline may have been greatly exaggerated by a poor career shooting year. It's true that Paul likely isn't going to provide Houston with All-NBA level play in the fourth year of his deal. It's also true that he has the capability to provide one or two more awesome years before it gets to that point.

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Can the Texans get more out of Tank Dell? Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

The Houston Texans won their second straight AFC South title Sunday with a victory over the Dolphins and a loss by the Colts.

It’s the eighth division title in franchise history with each of them coming since 2011.

Coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud are the only coach/quarterback duo in NFL history to capture division titles in their first two seasons together.

“Clinching the AFC South is huge for us,” Ryans said Monday. “Great accomplishment by all of our guys. It’s always our goal. You want to make it in the postseason, you have to win your division, it starts there. And so, we’re just thankful for everyone who played a part in us reaching a first step of our goal and that’s getting in.”

It's the fourth time the Texans (9-5) have won consecutive division titles and the first since 2018-19. This success comes after they won just 11 games combined in the three seasons before Ryans and Stroud arrived.

The Texans got the 20-12 victory Sunday thanks to a dominant outing by their defense, which forced four turnovers. Tua Tagovailoa lost a fumble on a strip-sack by Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans intercepted him three times, which tied his career high.

Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. secured the victory with two interceptions in the fourth quarter, with both coming on passes intended for star receiver Tyreek Hill.

“Just defensively our guys stepped up and did a really good job closing out the game the way we needed to,” Ryans said. “Stingley is playing just unbelievable football right now. Ask him to cover, man coverage, to go and get two picks versus a really good offense, that was huge for us.”

Stingley also had two tackles for loss Sunday to become the first cornerback in NFL history to have two interceptions and two tackles for loss in a game.

Stingley, who was the third overall pick in the 2022 draft, has five interceptions this season with four of them coming this month.

What’s working

Houston is third in the NFL with a plus-13 turnover differential after forcing four turnovers Sunday while losing the ball just once. The Texans are second in the NFL with 19 interceptions and are tied for seventh with nine fumble recoveries.

On offense, Stroud has thrown nine interceptions and Houston has lost just six fumbles.

What needs help

The Texans got the win Sunday by taking advantage of turnovers on a day the offense mustered a season-low 181 yards. Stroud threw two touchdown passes, but his 131 yards passing were the third fewest of his career.

But he wasn’t the only one who struggled offensively against the Dolphins. Joe Mixon, who has seven 100-yard rushing games this season, was held to just 23 yards on 12 carries after being shaken up on a hard hit early.

“I feel like we definitely could have been better in a lot of ways, but happy with the win and got to just move on,” Stroud said.

Stock up

LB Henry To’oTo’o had one of his best performances of the season Sunday, finishing with 11 tackles, half sack and a forced fumble. The Texans needed him to elevate his play to make up for the loss of fellow linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who served the first of a three-game suspension Sunday for his violent hit to the head of Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence.

Stock down

WR Tank Dell had just 26 yards receiving against the Dolphins after he had 23 yards receiving against Jacksonville before the bye. He’s had one 100-yard game this season after having three as a rookie last season.

Injuries

Ryans brushed off a question about Mixon’s health Monday saying: “he’ll be fine.” … Houston TE Cade Stover missed the game after having an emergency appendectomy Saturday night. … DT Foley Fatukasi injured an ankle in the second quarter and didn’t return.

Key number

45 — The Texans had three sacks Sunday to give them 45 this season, which ranks second in the NFL entering Monday and is one shy of the franchise record of 46 set last season.

Next steps

The Texans visit the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday before hosting the Ravens on Christmas Day. Houston has won just one of the past five meetings with the Chiefs. That includes a divisional round playoff game in the 2019 season that they lost 51-31 after racing to a 24-0 lead.

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