
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Since it was signed in the summer of 2018, there's been a load uproar about the size and length of Rockets' guard Chris Paul's contract. A lot of it is justified; Paul will be earning $44.2 million as a 36-year-old point guard and history has not been particularly favorable to point guards of his size aging down the stretch of their career. Paul also took a noticeable step back last season after a fantastic 2017-18 campaign with the Rockets. His struggles really reared their ugly heads in the playoffs - where Paul has traditionally excelled.
Chris Paul 2017-18 season:
18.6 PPG, 7.9 APG, 5.4 RPG, and 1.7 STL / 60.4% True Shooting / 24.4 PER
Chris Paul 2018-19 season:
15.6 PPG, 8.2 APG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.0 STL / 56.0% True Shooting / 19.7 PER
However, the discourse surrounding Paul has become muddled. As the Rockets enter a complicated offseason in which all options are being evaluated, it seems as though all anyone wants to talk about is how Houston could possibly move Paul's contract or how leveraged the Rockets are because of Paul's contract. Paul is now talked about as exclusively a burden to the Rockets rather than a very good basketball player who happens to be on a less than ideal contract. In a rush to fantasy ship him out to any suitor who will take him, the question of "Will a Chris Paul trade improve Houston's championship odds?" is being completely ignored.
And the answer to that question? Probably not.
If the Rockets were to trade Paul tomorrow, it's unlikely they get the kind of return that would help their immediate title odds with a soon-to-be 30-year-old James Harden. We have probably arrived at the point where Paul's value to Houston is probably being undervalued by the general public. Paul may not be the same player he was four years ago, but that doesn't mean his contract has suddenly become so toxic the Rockets have to dump him.
To start, some of the best value Paul brings Houston that often gets neglected is on the defensive side of the ball. It may have gone under-the-radar this season with Houston tailing off defensively and the late push to get P.J. Tucker into an All-Defense team, but Paul, at age 34, had a sneaky case for All-Defense himself.
Houston Rockets Defensive RTG:
Chris Paul ON the floor: 103.2
Chris Paul OFF the floor: 111.2
Paul may not be as quick laterally as he once was, but his IQ and awareness as a defender off the ball is off the charts good. His ability to anticipate where a pass is going and when it's going to be made can only be matched by a handful of players, as evidenced by his two steals per game.
Chris Paul - still elite at anticipating passes and grabbing steals. https://t.co/bi8UPXZN2m— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560316257.0
If you're even a slightly below average ball handler, Paul is just going to take the ball away from you.
If you're not like a B- level ball handler, Paul is just going to take it away from you. https://t.co/99IzrZ9AEe— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560316791.0
Although the Rockets didn't switch as much last year as they did the year before, Paul's physicality made it harder for even bigger offensive players to gain an advantage.
Paul's physicality made if so tough for bigger players (Harrison Barnes in this case) to try and post him up when t… https://t.co/qkP84C25N0— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560317793.0
For all the talk of Paul's offensive numbers taking a dip this year, Paul's defense hardly slipped. That being said, Paul still provided a ton of offensive value for Houston despite the slip in efficiency. Much like his defense, Paul's passing has yet to take a significant dip.
Paul's ability to find roll men at the basket, particularly in pick and roll, is really valuable for Houston when Harden is on the bench. The Rockets are already accustomed to running spread pick and roll when Harden is on the floor and Paul provides a clean outlet to keep that flow going.
https://t.co/xr6Ya4R21o— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560319674.0
His ability to find open shooters is even more impressive, particularly on the break. Contrary to what you might think, Paul is someone who likes to push the pace whenever possible while Harden would rather grind it down. Because of this, the transition offense is typically a lot crisper when orchestrated by Paul
.... https://t.co/slmEKYEt51— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560320096.0
Houston Rockets pace:
With Harden: 98.47
With Paul: 101.35
One of the bigger and more unusual drop-offs in Paul's game this season was his shooting. Paul has historically been an excellent three-point shooter (37.0% for his career), so it was quite bizarre to see his percentage drop down to 35.8% this season from 38.0% the prior season. The same was the case for his mid-range shooting, which fell to 47.6% from where it was a year ago (53.9%). Upon further analysis, it looks like a big reason for this decline ha been his drop-off as an isolation scorer as a whole from the previous year.
In 2017-18, Paul scored 1.10 points per possession in isolation (90.8 percentile) on a staggering 5.1 attempts per game. In 2018-19, that number dropped to 0.92 points per possession (63.3 percentile) on 4.7 attempts per game. Paul's off-the-dribble three-pointers just weren't sinking at the same rate they were a year ago.
2017-18 Chris Paul 3-PT shooting:
Catch and shoot: 41.1%
Pull-up: 38.1%
2018-19: Chris Paul 3-PT shooting:
Catch and shoot: 43.1%
Pull-up 34.5%
The easy conclusion for one to draw here is age-related decline. However, if you look back to the 2015-16 season, you'll find another random blip where Paul declined radically as a shooter.
Chris Paul pull-up 3-PT shooting:
2014-15: 37.7%
2015-16: 33.3%
Chris Paul mid-range shooting:
2014-15: 49.5%
2015-16: 45.7%
Paul also only 0.91 points per possession in isolation (71.8 percentile) in 2015-16. So, was it age-related regression then too when Paul was still only 30 years old? The better conclusion to draw might be that Paul had another career blip shooting season. That's not to say Paul didn't decline last season, but rather it's more likely Chris Paul gets back closer to where he was in 2017-18 as a shooter next season than he was last season.
Where you see Paul's decline most prevalent is his first step and finishing at the rim. In 2017-18, Paul drove to the basket 11.7 times per game and finished 49.4% of the time. In 2018-19, Paul finished 44.3% of the time on 12.1 drives per game. Paul isn't as explosive as he once was and this makes much more sense with what we know about aging as a basketball player compared to three-point percentage. As an older player, Paul's not going to be the same driver he once was, but that was expected when Daryl Morey offered him his contract in 2018.
Saying Chris Paul is not the same player he was a few years ago is a totally reasonable conclusion to draw. However, it's also reasonable to say that he's still a highly impactful basketball player and that his decline may have been greatly exaggerated by a poor career shooting year. It's true that Paul likely isn't going to provide Houston with All-NBA level play in the fourth year of his deal. It's also true that he has the capability to provide one or two more awesome years before it gets to that point.
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It wasn’t just a win — it was a glimpse into the Astros’ future
Jun 27, 2025, 10:43 pm
Two first-place teams, identical records, and a weekend set with serious measuring-stick energy.
The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs open a three-game series Friday night at Daikin Park, in what could quietly be one of the more telling matchups of the summer. Both teams enter at 48-33, each atop their respective divisions — but trending in slightly different directions.
The Astros have been red-hot, going 7-3 over their last 10 while outscoring opponents by 11 runs. They've done it behind one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, with a collective 3.41 ERA that ranks second in the American League. Houston has also been dominant at home, where they’ve compiled a 30-13 record — a stat that looms large heading into this weekend.
On the other side, the Cubs have held their ground in the NL Central but have shown some recent shakiness. They're 5-5 over their last 10 games and have given up 5.66 runs per game over that stretch. Still, the offense remains dangerous, ranking fifth in on-base percentage across the majors. Kyle Tucker leads the way with a .287 average, 16 homers, and 49 RBIs, while Michael Busch has been hot of late, collecting 12 hits in his last 37 at-bats.
Friday’s pitching matchup features Houston’s Brandon Walter (0-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and Chicago’s Cade Horton (3-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), a promising young arm making one of his biggest starts of the season on the road. Horton will have his hands full with Isaac Paredes, who’s slugged 16 homers on the year, and Mauricio Dubón, who’s found a groove with four home runs over his last 10 games.
It’s the first meeting of the season between these two clubs — and if the trends continue, it may not be the last time they cross paths when it really counts.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -112, Cubs -107; over/under is 8 1/2 runs
Here's a preview of Joe Espada's Game 1 lineup.
The first thing that stands out is rookie Cam Smith is hitting cleanup, followed by Jake Meyers. Victor Caratini is the DH and is hitting sixth. Christian Walker is all the way down at seventh, followed by Yainer Diaz, and Taylor Trammell who is playing left field.
How the mighty have fallen.
Pretty wild to see Walker and Diaz hitting this low in the lineup. However, it's justified, based on performance. Walker is hitting a pathetic .214 and Diaz is slightly better sporting a .238 batting average.
Screenshot via: MLB.com
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