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Since it was signed in the summer of 2018, there's been a load uproar about the size and length of Rockets' guard Chris Paul's contract. A lot of it is justified; Paul will be earning $44.2 million as a 36-year-old point guard and history has not been particularly favorable to point guards of his size aging down the stretch of their career. Paul also took a noticeable step back last season after a fantastic 2017-18 campaign with the Rockets. His struggles really reared their ugly heads in the playoffs - where Paul has traditionally excelled.
Chris Paul 2017-18 season:
18.6 PPG, 7.9 APG, 5.4 RPG, and 1.7 STL / 60.4% True Shooting / 24.4 PER
Chris Paul 2018-19 season:
15.6 PPG, 8.2 APG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.0 STL / 56.0% True Shooting / 19.7 PER
However, the discourse surrounding Paul has become muddled. As the Rockets enter a complicated offseason in which all options are being evaluated, it seems as though all anyone wants to talk about is how Houston could possibly move Paul's contract or how leveraged the Rockets are because of Paul's contract. Paul is now talked about as exclusively a burden to the Rockets rather than a very good basketball player who happens to be on a less than ideal contract. In a rush to fantasy ship him out to any suitor who will take him, the question of "Will a Chris Paul trade improve Houston's championship odds?" is being completely ignored.
And the answer to that question? Probably not.
If the Rockets were to trade Paul tomorrow, it's unlikely they get the kind of return that would help their immediate title odds with a soon-to-be 30-year-old James Harden. We have probably arrived at the point where Paul's value to Houston is probably being undervalued by the general public. Paul may not be the same player he was four years ago, but that doesn't mean his contract has suddenly become so toxic the Rockets have to dump him.
To start, some of the best value Paul brings Houston that often gets neglected is on the defensive side of the ball. It may have gone under-the-radar this season with Houston tailing off defensively and the late push to get P.J. Tucker into an All-Defense team, but Paul, at age 34, had a sneaky case for All-Defense himself.
Houston Rockets Defensive RTG:
Chris Paul ON the floor: 103.2
Chris Paul OFF the floor: 111.2
Paul may not be as quick laterally as he once was, but his IQ and awareness as a defender off the ball is off the charts good. His ability to anticipate where a pass is going and when it's going to be made can only be matched by a handful of players, as evidenced by his two steals per game.
Chris Paul - still elite at anticipating passes and grabbing steals. https://t.co/bi8UPXZN2m— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560316257.0
If you're even a slightly below average ball handler, Paul is just going to take the ball away from you.
If you're not like a B- level ball handler, Paul is just going to take it away from you. https://t.co/99IzrZ9AEe— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560316791.0
Although the Rockets didn't switch as much last year as they did the year before, Paul's physicality made it harder for even bigger offensive players to gain an advantage.
Paul's physicality made if so tough for bigger players (Harrison Barnes in this case) to try and post him up when t… https://t.co/qkP84C25N0— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560317793.0
For all the talk of Paul's offensive numbers taking a dip this year, Paul's defense hardly slipped. That being said, Paul still provided a ton of offensive value for Houston despite the slip in efficiency. Much like his defense, Paul's passing has yet to take a significant dip.
Paul's ability to find roll men at the basket, particularly in pick and roll, is really valuable for Houston when Harden is on the bench. The Rockets are already accustomed to running spread pick and roll when Harden is on the floor and Paul provides a clean outlet to keep that flow going.
https://t.co/xr6Ya4R21o— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560319674.0
His ability to find open shooters is even more impressive, particularly on the break. Contrary to what you might think, Paul is someone who likes to push the pace whenever possible while Harden would rather grind it down. Because of this, the transition offense is typically a lot crisper when orchestrated by Paul
.... https://t.co/slmEKYEt51— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560320096.0
Houston Rockets pace:
With Harden: 98.47
With Paul: 101.35
One of the bigger and more unusual drop-offs in Paul's game this season was his shooting. Paul has historically been an excellent three-point shooter (37.0% for his career), so it was quite bizarre to see his percentage drop down to 35.8% this season from 38.0% the prior season. The same was the case for his mid-range shooting, which fell to 47.6% from where it was a year ago (53.9%). Upon further analysis, it looks like a big reason for this decline ha been his drop-off as an isolation scorer as a whole from the previous year.
In 2017-18, Paul scored 1.10 points per possession in isolation (90.8 percentile) on a staggering 5.1 attempts per game. In 2018-19, that number dropped to 0.92 points per possession (63.3 percentile) on 4.7 attempts per game. Paul's off-the-dribble three-pointers just weren't sinking at the same rate they were a year ago.
2017-18 Chris Paul 3-PT shooting:
Catch and shoot: 41.1%
Pull-up: 38.1%
2018-19: Chris Paul 3-PT shooting:
Catch and shoot: 43.1%
Pull-up 34.5%
The easy conclusion for one to draw here is age-related decline. However, if you look back to the 2015-16 season, you'll find another random blip where Paul declined radically as a shooter.
Chris Paul pull-up 3-PT shooting:
2014-15: 37.7%
2015-16: 33.3%
Chris Paul mid-range shooting:
2014-15: 49.5%
2015-16: 45.7%
Paul also only 0.91 points per possession in isolation (71.8 percentile) in 2015-16. So, was it age-related regression then too when Paul was still only 30 years old? The better conclusion to draw might be that Paul had another career blip shooting season. That's not to say Paul didn't decline last season, but rather it's more likely Chris Paul gets back closer to where he was in 2017-18 as a shooter next season than he was last season.
Where you see Paul's decline most prevalent is his first step and finishing at the rim. In 2017-18, Paul drove to the basket 11.7 times per game and finished 49.4% of the time. In 2018-19, Paul finished 44.3% of the time on 12.1 drives per game. Paul isn't as explosive as he once was and this makes much more sense with what we know about aging as a basketball player compared to three-point percentage. As an older player, Paul's not going to be the same driver he once was, but that was expected when Daryl Morey offered him his contract in 2018.
Saying Chris Paul is not the same player he was a few years ago is a totally reasonable conclusion to draw. However, it's also reasonable to say that he's still a highly impactful basketball player and that his decline may have been greatly exaggerated by a poor career shooting year. It's true that Paul likely isn't going to provide Houston with All-NBA level play in the fourth year of his deal. It's also true that he has the capability to provide one or two more awesome years before it gets to that point.
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The Astros didn’t leave Seattle with a series win, but they may have gained something just as important: a reminder that resilience still runs deep in this group.
After a grueling extra-inning loss on Saturday, one that included the loss of Isaac Paredes to a hamstring injury, Houston regrouped on Sunday and hammered the Mariners 11-3. Christian Walker provided the turning point with a much-needed go-ahead home run in the sixth inning, while Taylor Trammell added a two-run double and a solo shot of his own. With Chas McCormick back from the injured list but still finding his footing, Trammell is quickly making his case as the best option in center field moving forward.
Manager Joe Espada continues to juggle a lineup that’s been in constant flux. Rookie Cam Smith, who had a clutch two-run double in Sunday’s win, has struggled as of late, going just 2-for his last 24. While his ability to get hits in clutch situations has been extremely valuable, the lack of a consistent spot in the batting order may be taking its toll. Giving Smith a stable home in the cleanup spot, even temporarily, might be a helpful reset.
Then again, the cleanup role hasn’t been kind to everyone.
Last night, Christian Walker, batting 4th, went 0-4, 2 K
- Walker for the season, batting 4th: .167 BA, .498 OPS
- Both are MLB worst (min. 75 AB batting 4th, 51st of 51)
- His 210 AB batting 4th are 6th most in MLB
- He's hitting .317 w/ .887 OPS when batting anywhere but 4th
— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) July 19, 2025
Walker has been markedly less effective when hitting fourth this season, a trend that continues despite his strong Sunday performance. Sometimes, the data is clear: the four-hole might not be for him. He's literally been the worst cleanup option in baseball this season. Hit him fifth.
Behind the plate, Victor Caratini continues to impress, while Yainer Diaz is back in a cold stretch. Since the break, Diaz is just 1-for-14, raising questions about his timing and confidence as the summer grind deepens.
On the mound, the biggest developments are happening off the field. Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti both completed three-inning rehab outings with Double-A Corpus Christi, while Luis Garcia threw two innings in a rehab start with Low-A Fayetteville. The trio’s return could mark a major turning point for the Astros, especially as Lance McCullers continues to struggle in his own comeback. McCullers lasted just 2 2/3 innings in Saturday’s loss, allowing four runs and showing little of the form that once made him one of the rotation’s anchors.
There’s been hesitancy to replace McCullers with someone like Arrighetti while he’s still building back arm strength, but the argument grows thinner each time McCullers falters. If healthy, even a three- or four-inning version of Javier or Arrighetti could give Houston more consistency at the back of the rotation.
Despite the weekend loss, the Astros still hold one of the best offenses in baseball, second in batting average, 12th in OPS, and 11th in slugging. The pitching staff remains stout, ranking sixth in ERA and second in WHIP. This team is far from unraveling.
With reinforcements on the way and a lineup that’s still capable of putting up crooked numbers, the Astros aren’t panicking. If anything, Sunday’s blowout win showed they’re ready to weather whatever’s next.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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