Rockets: The case to trade for Jimmy Butler

Rockets: The case to trade for Jimmy Butler
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Over the past week, it has become abundantly clear that the Houston Rockets plan to seriously target another star caliber player to pair with James Harden and Chris Paul this offseason. It has also become clear, through Daryl Morey himself, that the Rockets already have someone in mind.

According to Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle, that player may just be four-time All-Star Jimmy Butler. The Rockets are expected to pursue Butler aggressively and view him as an ideal fit, according to Smith. There has been additional reporting since to corroborate Smith's reporting.

Butler certainly makes a lot of sense as a name that Houston would be interested in. He's in his prime, a tough defender who can guard multiple positions, and has turned himself into quite the efficient scorer over the past several years. Also, the Rockets had significant interest in Butler this year and reportedly were willing to trade four first round draft picks to acquire him when he was still on the Timberwolves.

In reality, most Rockets fans don't need a case to be made for Butler; they're already on board. Butler is a Tomball native and reportedly has a strong relationship with Rockets star James Harden. There could be mutual interest from both sides to get a deal done. If indeed the Rockets could pull off what would be a very complicated process, it's worth noting just what Butler brings to the table for Houston and how much he raises their ceiling.

Defense

The greatest asset Butler immediately brings to Houston is his defensive versatility. The Rockets have been searching for lengthy, athletic wing players that can defend multiple positions ever since they chose to let Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute walk in free agency last summer and Butler brings that in droves. Butler is 6'8" with an average wingspan, but what he lacks in length, he makes up for in IQ, awareness, active hands, and strength.

Much like Chris Paul, Butler is constantly a threat to get into passing lanes, grab steals, and run the floor. If the opposing team makes one errant pass, Butler will make them pay for it. He is what you would call a ball-watcher in the best possible way.

For Houston's switching system, Butler falls in line quite nicely as he doesn't get bulldozed by bruising big men like Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Rockets also haven't had anyone to take over the best wing threat on opposing teams when P.J. Tucker is off the floor. Ariza filled this role quite nicely for Houston two years ago, but since then, Houston has gone to guys like James Ennis, Gary Clark Jr., and Iman Shumpert as less-than-flattering alternatives. Butler has even shown a willingness to switch on to smaller, quicker guards and has been effective at doing so.

Houston has a very clear need for another perimeter defender and Butler helps fill that role very cleanly. As a team, the 76ers last year defended 8.9 points per 100 possessions when Butler was on the floor. The year before, the Timberwolves defended 6.8 points per 100 possessions better with Butler on the floor. The positive impact he has defensively for every team he plays for is real and is much needed on a team that is currently starting a three-guard lineup with a Defensive RTG that ranked 18th this season (110.1 points per 100 possessions).

Offense

The Rockets technically don't "need" extra offense considering how highly they've ranked over the past few years with Harden and D'Antoni orchestrating everything. However, a player like Butler adds a layer of sophistication to Houston's offense that could prove useful in the postseason. Houston's offense is a pretty simple spread pick and roll attack that turns into isolation when teams switch on defense. It's hard to guard with Chris Paul and James Harden running the show, but adding a player like Butler diversifies Houston's attack.

For example, Butler's willingness to cut and attack the rim without the basketball is something the Rockets don't have as a perimeter option.


Butler also displays this willingness to move without the basketball in transition, which is extremely lethal when paired with passers like Harden and Paul.

As a shooter, Butler is about average. For his career, he's a 34.1% three-point shooter which is fairly poor. However, Butler has a lot of inefficiencies in his game that could easily be cleaned up by an organization like Houston. The Rockets make it their mission to eliminate inefficient shots from their offense as much as they possibly can. One way they do this is by taking away mid-range shots from mediocre mid-range shooters. Butler is a textbook case of a player who takes too many mid-range jump shots and doesn't shoot efficiently enough to justify taking them at all.

Jimmy Butler from mid-range 2018-19:

3.6 attempts per game

35.7%

Butler scored 0.714 points per possession when he takes a mid-range shot versus 1.014 points per possession when taking a three-pointer even though he shot only 33.8% from three. With the Rockets, Butler will likely cut out all those mid-range attempts in favor of three-pointers which would make him a more efficient scorer. Butler is already fairly efficient as is (57.1% true shooting), but with a spaced floor, willing passers that will find him for cutting opportunities, and the Rockets cutting the fat out of his game, we could see him approach 60% true shooting.

Butler could also help significantly with lowering the great burden on Harden. Because of the limited scoring options available, Harden has had to shoulder an unusually heavy usage rating over the past few years. Even when the Rockets traded for Chris Paul, Harden's usage rating increased the following season.

James Harden usage rate:

2016-17: 33.3%

2017-18: 35.1%

2018-19: 39.3%

These are historically high usage rate that Butler's addition could help lower substantially.

It's important to not gloss over Butler's greatest ability: attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. The Rocket's have never had anyone on the roster that could get to the free throw line nearly as well as Harden. However, Butler career 48.1% free throw rate is just shy of Harden's career 52.7% free throw rate. Butler's quickness off the dribble and strength at the rim when he gets there is something invaluable, especially with the floor spacing he will have if he were in Houston.

If the Rockets were to possible acquire Butler, it's safe to say he'd be a welcome addition on both ends of the floor.

How does it happen?

How the Rockets can possibly acquire Butler considering their cap situation is a fair question, but one that can be dumbed down into one word: trade.

There's pretty much two situations that would allow the Rockets to acquire Butler without completely gutting the roster.

1) An opt-and-trade with Philadelphia

If the Rockets wanted to acquire Butler, the cleanest way they would go about doing so would be via opt-and-trade. This would require Butler opting in to the final year of his deal under the condition that the 76ers would trade him to Houston immediately after doing so. This is how the Rockets acquired Chris Paul two years ago.

An opt-and-trade scenario would almost assuredly involve moving either Eric Gordon or Clint Capela's contract plus salary filler (either Nene Hilario or a couple minimum contracts). More than likely, the Sixers would prefer Eric Gordon as Capela would just become a really expensive reserve center for them and Gordon provides shooting and shot-creation in Butler's absence. The Rockets would also likely have to forfeit some significant draft compensation for Philadelphia's cooperation.

This would effectively involve a handshake agreement that the Rockets would re-sign Butler to a four-year max deal the following summer to recoup some of the money he lost by not signing a five-year max with the Sixers this summer.

2) A sign-and-trade

If Butler chose to opt-out to seek more immediate long-term security, things get tricky for the Rockets. Houston would have to then move out both Eric Gordon and Clint Capela in a deal with the 76ers and possibly involve a third party to absorb Capela and send more usable assets Philadelphia's way. It would be incredibly complicated and difficult to find a third team to help facilitate this.

There is also an alternative route on the table that would involve swingman Iman Shumpert. Shumpert is an unrestricted free agent and the Rockets have his full bird-rights. If the Rockets were to re-sign Shumpert and do a double-sign-and-trade, they could manage to make the money work while only having to give up one of Gordon or Capela. Shumpert's first year would have to be incredibly lucrative to make the money work, while the second and third years could be more team friendly for the 76ers.

Both trade-types would be incredibly complicated and difficult to execute, but few GMs have pulled more rabbits out of their hat than Daryl Morey. If the Rockets want to land someone of Butler's caliber, which Morey reportedly does, creativity will be king this offseason.

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The Texans will look to get back on track this Sunday against the Colts. Composite Getty Image.

C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are looking for answers after their passing game couldn’t get going in a loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Houston’s passing attack had been a strength all season, and the Texans ranked fifth in yards passing per game through their first six games. But on Sunday at Lambeau Field, Stroud was limited to a career-low 86 yards in the 24-22 loss, which snapped a three-game winning streak.

Stroud was 10 of 21 and didn’t have a touchdown pass for the first time this season. The second-year player was under duress for much of the day and was sacked four times and hit seven other times.

“We have to go back to the drawing board and see what those issues were,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “As we watch the film, we’ll see what happened, starting for me the communication and just guys being on the details of the job.”

The Texans scored a season-high 41 points in a win over New England a week earlier in which Stroud threw a season-best three touchdown passes despite being without star receiver Nico Collins.

They were unable to replicate that success Sunday with Collins out for the second of at least four games after a hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve.

Stefon Diggs led the team with five receptions against the Packers, but they only amounted to 23 yards. Tank Dell, who the Texans expected to step up with Collins out, was targeted four times but didn’t have a catch.

Stroud discussed the importance of getting Dell more involved in the offense.

“We have to find a way to try and get him the rock early and often and then go from there,” he said. “It has to be a focus for us, not only just him, but the whole offense clicking early. That is really my job to get the ball out on time and to where it is supposed to go. So yeah, that definitely has to be fixed.”

Ryans spoke about his confidence is getting Dell going.

What's working

The Texans have forced seven turnovers combined in their last two games after they hadn’t caused any in their previous three games.

Houston scored 16 points off three turnovers Sunday. The Texans had two interceptions and recovered a fumble on a punt. In their win over the Patriots, they scored 17 points off a season-high four turnovers.

What needs help

The Texans won’t get to where they want to be this season if Stroud doesn’t get back on track. Before Sunday, last year’s AP Offensive Rookie of the Year was averaging more than 262 yards passing a game, giving the team confidence that the problems in the passing game are fixable.

Ryans knows the line must give Stroud more time to throw and said the coaching staff will focus on improving in that area this week.

Stock up

RB Joe Mixon continued to shine Sunday in his second game back after missing three games with an ankle injury. Mixon, who is in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati, had 25 carries for 115 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay.

Mixon is confident the Texans will rebound this week if they quit making mistakes.

“Does it look I’m worried? I’m not worried at all,” he said. “Like I said, we got a ... good football team. At the end of the day, we are our own worst enemy.”

Stock down

Dell was unable to help Stroud get the passing game going. The second-year player had a solid rookie season with 709 yards receiving and seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg. But he hasn’t been able to build on that success this year and has just 194 yards receiving with one score in six games.

Injuries

LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), LB Henry To’oTo’o (concussion), CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) and S Jimmie Ward (groin) all missed Sunday’s game and it’s unclear if any of these starters can return this week.

Key number

3 — Safety Calen Bullock had his third interception Sunday to tie Dunta Robinson and Jumal Rolle for most interceptions by a rookie in franchise history through the first seven games. He leads NFL rookies in interceptions this season and is tied for third-most among all players.

Next steps

The AFC South-leading Texans (5-2) return to division play Sunday when they host the second-place Colts (4-3), who have won two in a row and four of five.

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