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Over the past week, it has become abundantly clear that the Houston Rockets plan to seriously target another star caliber player to pair with James Harden and Chris Paul this offseason. It has also become clear, through Daryl Morey himself, that the Rockets already have someone in mind.
Morey on @SportsTalk790 (continued) "We're hoping to have a discussion with one of the top stars and we're hoping t… https://t.co/RUchjkycXG— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1560779476.0
According to Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle, that player may just be four-time All-Star Jimmy Butler. The Rockets are expected to pursue Butler aggressively and view him as an ideal fit, according to Smith. There has been additional reporting since to corroborate Smith's reporting.
Butler certainly makes a lot of sense as a name that Houston would be interested in. He's in his prime, a tough defender who can guard multiple positions, and has turned himself into quite the efficient scorer over the past several years. Also, the Rockets had significant interest in Butler this year and reportedly were willing to trade four first round draft picks to acquire him when he was still on the Timberwolves.
Story posting soon: The Houston Rockets are making a renewed bid to acquire Minnesota All-Star Jimmy Butler, includ… https://t.co/3mKRPfkLCk— Adrian Wojnarowski (@Adrian Wojnarowski) 1540505453.0
In reality, most Rockets fans don't need a case to be made for Butler; they're already on board. Butler is a Tomball native and reportedly has a strong relationship with Rockets star James Harden. There could be mutual interest from both sides to get a deal done. If indeed the Rockets could pull off what would be a very complicated process, it's worth noting just what Butler brings to the table for Houston and how much he raises their ceiling.
Defense
The greatest asset Butler immediately brings to Houston is his defensive versatility. The Rockets have been searching for lengthy, athletic wing players that can defend multiple positions ever since they chose to let Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute walk in free agency last summer and Butler brings that in droves. Butler is 6'8" with an average wingspan, but what he lacks in length, he makes up for in IQ, awareness, active hands, and strength.
Much like Chris Paul, Butler is constantly a threat to get into passing lanes, grab steals, and run the floor. If the opposing team makes one errant pass, Butler will make them pay for it. He is what you would call a ball-watcher in the best possible way.
Jimmy Butler is such a ball-watcher in the best kind of way. https://t.co/PjNRJPkzFV— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1561187013.0
For Houston's switching system, Butler falls in line quite nicely as he doesn't get bulldozed by bruising big men like Karl-Anthony Towns.
https://t.co/KEjLtF0eKW— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1561187418.0
The Rockets also haven't had anyone to take over the best wing threat on opposing teams when P.J. Tucker is off the floor. Ariza filled this role quite nicely for Houston two years ago, but since then, Houston has gone to guys like James Ennis, Gary Clark Jr., and Iman Shumpert as less-than-flattering alternatives. Butler has even shown a willingness to switch on to smaller, quicker guards and has been effective at doing so.
https://t.co/ZdntBCah4G— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1561188108.0
Houston has a very clear need for another perimeter defender and Butler helps fill that role very cleanly. As a team, the 76ers last year defended 8.9 points per 100 possessions when Butler was on the floor. The year before, the Timberwolves defended 6.8 points per 100 possessions better with Butler on the floor. The positive impact he has defensively for every team he plays for is real and is much needed on a team that is currently starting a three-guard lineup with a Defensive RTG that ranked 18th this season (110.1 points per 100 possessions).
Offense
The Rockets technically don't "need" extra offense considering how highly they've ranked over the past few years with Harden and D'Antoni orchestrating everything. However, a player like Butler adds a layer of sophistication to Houston's offense that could prove useful in the postseason. Houston's offense is a pretty simple spread pick and roll attack that turns into isolation when teams switch on defense. It's hard to guard with Chris Paul and James Harden running the show, but adding a player like Butler diversifies Houston's attack.
For example, Butler's willingness to cut and attack the rim without the basketball is something the Rockets don't have as a perimeter option.
https://t.co/vpkVCPnTes— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1561353163.0
https://t.co/E8lGV81JJZ— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1561353257.0
Butler also displays this willingness to move without the basketball in transition, which is extremely lethal when paired with passers like Harden and Paul.
https://t.co/0qi0Eo6Ch4— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1561353650.0
As a shooter, Butler is about average. For his career, he's a 34.1% three-point shooter which is fairly poor. However, Butler has a lot of inefficiencies in his game that could easily be cleaned up by an organization like Houston. The Rockets make it their mission to eliminate inefficient shots from their offense as much as they possibly can. One way they do this is by taking away mid-range shots from mediocre mid-range shooters. Butler is a textbook case of a player who takes too many mid-range jump shots and doesn't shoot efficiently enough to justify taking them at all.
Jimmy Butler from mid-range 2018-19:
3.6 attempts per game
35.7%
Butler scored 0.714 points per possession when he takes a mid-range shot versus 1.014 points per possession when taking a three-pointer even though he shot only 33.8% from three. With the Rockets, Butler will likely cut out all those mid-range attempts in favor of three-pointers which would make him a more efficient scorer. Butler is already fairly efficient as is (57.1% true shooting), but with a spaced floor, willing passers that will find him for cutting opportunities, and the Rockets cutting the fat out of his game, we could see him approach 60% true shooting.
Butler could also help significantly with lowering the great burden on Harden. Because of the limited scoring options available, Harden has had to shoulder an unusually heavy usage rating over the past few years. Even when the Rockets traded for Chris Paul, Harden's usage rating increased the following season.
James Harden usage rate:
2016-17: 33.3%
2017-18: 35.1%
2018-19: 39.3%
These are historically high usage rate that Butler's addition could help lower substantially.
It's important to not gloss over Butler's greatest ability: attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. The Rocket's have never had anyone on the roster that could get to the free throw line nearly as well as Harden. However, Butler career 48.1% free throw rate is just shy of Harden's career 52.7% free throw rate. Butler's quickness off the dribble and strength at the rim when he gets there is something invaluable, especially with the floor spacing he will have if he were in Houston.
https://t.co/L6Ek8CfeUE— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1561356047.0
If the Rockets were to possible acquire Butler, it's safe to say he'd be a welcome addition on both ends of the floor.
How does it happen?
How the Rockets can possibly acquire Butler considering their cap situation is a fair question, but one that can be dumbed down into one word: trade.
There's pretty much two situations that would allow the Rockets to acquire Butler without completely gutting the roster.
1) An opt-and-trade with Philadelphia
If the Rockets wanted to acquire Butler, the cleanest way they would go about doing so would be via opt-and-trade. This would require Butler opting in to the final year of his deal under the condition that the 76ers would trade him to Houston immediately after doing so. This is how the Rockets acquired Chris Paul two years ago.
An opt-and-trade scenario would almost assuredly involve moving either Eric Gordon or Clint Capela's contract plus salary filler (either Nene Hilario or a couple minimum contracts). More than likely, the Sixers would prefer Eric Gordon as Capela would just become a really expensive reserve center for them and Gordon provides shooting and shot-creation in Butler's absence. The Rockets would also likely have to forfeit some significant draft compensation for Philadelphia's cooperation.
This would effectively involve a handshake agreement that the Rockets would re-sign Butler to a four-year max deal the following summer to recoup some of the money he lost by not signing a five-year max with the Sixers this summer.
2) A sign-and-trade
If Butler chose to opt-out to seek more immediate long-term security, things get tricky for the Rockets. Houston would have to then move out both Eric Gordon and Clint Capela in a deal with the 76ers and possibly involve a third party to absorb Capela and send more usable assets Philadelphia's way. It would be incredibly complicated and difficult to find a third team to help facilitate this.
There is also an alternative route on the table that would involve swingman Iman Shumpert. Shumpert is an unrestricted free agent and the Rockets have his full bird-rights. If the Rockets were to re-sign Shumpert and do a double-sign-and-trade, they could manage to make the money work while only having to give up one of Gordon or Capela. Shumpert's first year would have to be incredibly lucrative to make the money work, while the second and third years could be more team friendly for the 76ers.
Both trade-types would be incredibly complicated and difficult to execute, but few GMs have pulled more rabbits out of their hat than Daryl Morey. If the Rockets want to land someone of Butler's caliber, which Morey reportedly does, creativity will be king this offseason.
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Capsules of American League West teams, listed in order of finish last year:
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HOUSTON ASTROS
2023: 90-72, first place, lost to Texas in AL Championship Series.
Manager: Joe Espada (first season).
Opening Day: March 28 vs. New York Yankees.
He’s Here: LHP Josh Hader, RHP Dylan Coleman, RHP Oliver Ortega, C Victor Caratini.
He’s Outta Here: Manager Dusty Baker, LF Michael Brantley, C Martín Maldonado, RHP Héctor Neris, RHP Ryne Stanek, RHP Phil Maton.
Top Hitters: DH/LF Yordan Alvarez (.293, 31 HRs, 97 RBIs, .990 OPS), 2B Jose Altuve (.311, 28, 57), RF Kyle Tucker (.284, 29, AL-leading 112, 30 SBs, .886 OPS), 3B Alex Bregman (.262, 25, 98), 1B José Abreu (.234, 18, 90).
Projected Rotation: RH Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22 ERA, 144 Ks for Mets and Astros), LH Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45, 200 Ks, 2 CGs, including no-hitter), RH Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56), RH José Urquidy (3-3, 5.29), RH J.P. France (11-6, 3.83) or RH Hunter Brown (11-13, 5.09).
Key Relievers: LH Josh Hader (2-3, 1.28 ERA, 33/38 saves for Padres), RH Ryan Pressly (4-5, 3.58, 31 saves), RH Bryan Abreu (3-2, 1.75 in 72 games), RH Rafael Montero (3-3, 5.08), RH Seth Martinez (2-3, 5.23).
Outlook: After coming within one win of reaching their third straight World Series last season, the Astros are again one of the top contenders to reach the Fall Classic in 2024. They’ve got the 41-year-old Verlander back after he returned in a trade with the Mets last July. The three-time Cy Young Award winner will start the season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, but the Astros expect it to be a short stint before he’s back to lead a rotation that also features Valdez and Javier. The lineup remains largely intact from last season, with Alvarez leading the group and Tucker, Altuve, Bregman and Abreu also providing power. Gone is Brantley, the veteran left fielder who was limited to 15 games because of injury in 2023 before retiring this offseason. Chas McCormick can play left when Alvarez is the DH, with Jake Meyers in center. With Maldonado gone to the White Sox, Yanier Diaz should add punch to the offense by taking over as Houston’s everyday catcher after a stellar rookie season.
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TEXAS RANGERS
2023: 90-72, second place, World Series champions.
Manager: Bruce Bochy (second season).
Opening Day: March 28 vs. Chicago Cubs.
He’s Here: RHP David Robertson, RHP Tyler Mahle, RHP Kirby Yates, C Andrew Knizner, INF Matt Duffy, 1B/OF Jared Walsh.
He’s Outta Here: LHP Jordan Montgomery, C/DH Mitch Garver, LHP Aroldis Chapman, LHP Martín Pérez, LHP Will Smith, OF Robbie Grossman.
Top Hitters: SS Corey Seager (.327, 33 HRs, 96 RBIs), RF Adolis García (.245, 39, 107, 175 Ks), 2B Marcus Semien (.276, 29, 100), C Jonah Heim (.258, 18, 95), 1B Nathaniel Lowe (.262, 17, 82, 93 BBs).
Projected Rotation: RH Nathan Eovaldi (12-5, 3.63 ERA), RH Dane Dunning (12-7, 3.70), LH Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15), RH Jon Gray (9-8, 4.12), LH Cody Bradford (4-3, 5.30).
Key Relievers: RH José Leclerc (0-2, 2.68 ERA, 4 saves in 57 appearances), RH David Robertson (6-6, 3.03, 18 saves with Mets and Marlins), RH Josh Sborz (6-7, 5.50), RH Kirby Yates (7-2, 3.28, 5 saves in 61 games with Braves), LH Brock Burke (5-3, 4.37 in 53 games).
Outlook: Coming off the franchise’s first World Series title, Texas didn’t re-sign deadline-acquisition Montgomery and will open the season with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer on the injured list. Those right-handers, both with multiple Cy Young Awards, could be the midseason additions this year. If the rest of the starters can stay healthy, the Rangers still have a solid rotation led by Eovaldi, an All-Star last year in his Texas debut. Veteran relievers Robertson and Yates bolster the bullpen after Leclerc and Sborz were impressive through the playoffs. The Rangers return the bulk of a lineup that hit 233 homers and scored an AL-high 5.4 runs per game last year. But World Series MVP Seager (sports hernia), Gold Glove-winning Lowe (oblique strain) and third baseman Josh Jung (calf) missed significant time in the spring. ALCS MVP García avoided salary arbitration with a two-year deal. The Rangers could have two legitimate Rookie of the Year candidates in their outfield: Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford.
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SEATTLE MARINERS
2023: 88-74, third place.
Manager: Scott Servais (ninth season).
Opening Day: March 28 vs. Boston.
He’s Here: 2B Jorge Polanco, 3B Luis Urías, OF/1B Luke Raley, DH Mitch Garver, RF Mitch Haniger, C Seby Zavala, RHP Gregory Santos, RHP Austin Voth, RHP Ryne Stanek.
He’s Outta Here: INF Jose Caballero, 3B Eugenio Suárez, LF Jarred Kelenic, RF Teoscar Hernández, RHP Chris Flexen, LHP Marco Gonzales, RHP Justin Topa.
Top Hitters: CF Julio Rodríguez (.275, 32 HRs, 103 RBIs, .818 OPS), SS J.P. Crawford (.266, 19, 65, .818 OPS), DH Mitch Garver (.270, 19, 50, .870 OPS in 87 games with Rangers), 2B Jorge Polanco (.255, 14, 48 with Twins), C Cal Raleigh (.232, 30, 75).
Projected Rotation: RH Luis Castillo (14-9, 3.34 ERA, 219 Ks in 197 innings), RH George Kirby (13-10, 3.35, 172 Ks, 19 walks), RH Logan Gilbert (13-7, 3.73), RH Bryce Miller (8-7, 4.32 in 25 starts), RH Bryan Woo (4-5, 4.21 in 18 starts).
Key Relievers: RH Andrés Muñoz (4-7, 2.94 ERA, 13 saves), RH Matt Brash (9-4, 3.06, 107 Ks, league-high 78 appearances), RH Gregory Santos (2-2, 3.39 in 60 appearances with White Sox), RH Ryne Stanek (3-1, 4.09 in 55 games with Houston), LH Gabe Speier (2-2, 3.79 in 69 games).
Outlook: Hamstrung by ownership not wanting to spend in free agency for a variety of reasons, Seattle’s front office had to get creative in an attempt to improve a team that finished two games out of a playoff berth. The Mariners may be marginally better than a year ago, but that might not be enough to topple Texas and Houston in the AL West. Rodríguez seems determined not to let last year’s playoff miss happen again. He’d be helped if Garver and Haniger can avoid injuries and if Ty France can rediscover his swing after a miserable 2023. Seattle has one of the best rotations in baseball — led by Castillo, Kirby and Gilbert — so a ton of runs on offense might not be needed. But the Mariners must cut down on strikeouts and be better situationally. The bullpen could be a concern with several key arms slowed during spring training, but the Mariners have shown an ability in recent years to find hard throwers to fill key spots in relief.
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LOS ANGELES ANGELS
2023: 73-89, fourth place.
Manager: Ron Washington (first season).
Opening Day: March 28 at Baltimore.
He’s Here: RHP Robert Stevenson, LHP Matt Moore, RHP Luis García, 1B Miguel Sanó, OF Aaron Hicks.
He’s Outta Here: Manager Phil Nevin, DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, 1B Mike Moustakas, INF Gio Urshela, OF Randal Grichuk, INF Eduardo Escobar, 1B C.J. Cron, LHP Aaron Loup, C Max Stassi, SS David Fletcher.
Top Hitters: CF Mike Trout (.263, 18 HRs, 44 RBIs in 82 games), 3B Anthony Rendon (.236, 2, 22 in 43 games), 2B Brandon Drury (.262, 26, 83), OF Taylor Ward (.253, 14, 47).
Projected Rotation: LH Tyler Anderson (6-6, 5.43 ERA), LH Patrick Sandoval (7-13, 4.11), LH Reid Detmers (4-10, 4.48), RH Griffin Canning (7-8, 4.32), RH Chase Silseth (4-1, 3.96).
Key Relievers: RH Carlos Estévez (5-5, 3.90 ERA, 31 saves), RH Robert Stephenson (3-4, 3.10 with Rays and Pirates), LH Matt Moore (4-1, 2.77 with Angels, Guardians and Marlins), RH Luis García (2-3, 4.07 with Padres).
Outlook: After losing Ohtani to a $700 million deal from the Dodgers, the Halos feel like they’re starting over yet again. Their streaks of eight straight losing seasons and nine consecutive non-playoff seasons are the majors’ longest, and now they’ll be without the best hitter and best pitcher on their 73-win team in 2023. Los Angeles didn’t make any major additions, only restocking its bullpen and taking low-cost flyers on Sanó and Hicks. At least Trout and Rendon are healthy for now after injuries sidelined either or both sluggers for more than 60% of the Angels’ games over the past three seasons. The 71-year-old Washington should bring defensive expertise, charisma and a winning mentality to a team that needs all of it. And not everything is bleak: For the first time in many years, the Angels have a crop of young talent breaking through in the majors, led by shortstop Zach Neto, catcher Logan O’Hoppe, first baseman Nolan Schanuel and outfielder Mickey Moniak.
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OAKLAND ATHLETICS
2023: 50-112, fifth place.
Manager: Mark Kotsay (third season).
Opening Day: March 28 vs. Cleveland.
He’s Here: LHP Alex Wood, LHP Scott Alexander, RHP Ross Stripling, RHP Trevor Gott.
He’s Outta Here: INF/OF Tony Kemp, RHP Trevor May, RHP Drew Rucinski.
Top Hitters: DH Brent Rooker (.246, 30 HRs, 69 RBIs, .817 OPS), 1B Ryan Noda (.229, 16, 54, .770 OPS), 2B Zack Gelof (.267, 14, 32, .840 OPS), C Shea Langeliers (.205, 22, 63), RF Seth Brown (.222, 14, 52).
Projected Rotation: RH Paul Blackburn (4-7, 4.43 ERA), LH JP Sears (5-14, 4.54), LH Alex Wood (5-5, 4.33 for Giants), RH Ross Stripling (0-5, 5.36 for Giants), RH Joe Boyle (2-0, 1.69 in 3 starts).
Key Relievers: RH Mason Miller (0-3, 3.78 in 10 games), RH Trevor Gott (0-5, 4.19, 1 save for Mariners and Mets), LH Scott Alexander (7-3, 4.66, 1 save for Giants), RH Dany Jiménez (0-2, 3.47, 1 save).
Outlook: The A’s enter another season in limbo with little hope of competing after losing a league-high 112 games last season. The franchise has approval to move to Las Vegas in 2028 and is entering the final year of a stadium lease in Oakland, leading to uncertainty about where the team will play in the near future. The club added some pitching depth this offseason but appears to be a long way from building a winner. The A’s lost at least 100 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1964-65 and are in danger of doing it three years in a row for the first time since 1919-21.