WILD STUFF
How Houston Rockets are uniquely positioned after crazy NBA trade deadline
Feb 9, 2023, 5:46 pm
What a turn of events!Composite image by Brandon Strange.
The Houston Rockets, like much of the NBA landscape in the past 24 hours, has completely changed its roster makeup as it heads toward the final months of the regular season.
Houston sent long-time veteran Eric Gordon to the Los Angeles Clippers, traded away Garrison Mathews and Bruno Fernando, had a reunion with John Wall, sort of, and then added a plethora of draft picks, including two future second-round picks and an intriguing right to a pick swap using Milwaukee’s first-round draft pick that could be switched out with the Clippers’ first-round draft pick in the 2023 draft.
Above it all, Rockets general manager Rafael Stone is grinning from ear-to-ear following the complete implosion of the Brooklyn Nets over the past week.
First Kyrie Irving went to Dallas and then the Nets sent Kevin Durant to Phoenix, meaning Houston is in prime position to have numerous high first-round picks in 2024, 2025 in a potential swap, 2026, and 2027 in another potential swap.
The Rockets also have the option to swap first-round picks with the Nets this year, but Houston will likely end the season with the higher one when it is all said and done, regardless of the Nets’ close to the season.
Why is this such great news for the Rockets? Because they have plenty of capital to get back to competitiveness again, and quite frankly, relevance.
Houston has used its last two first-round draft picks in Jalen Green and Jabari Smith. Arguably the Rockets’ best player is also a first-round draft pick they got in 2021 in Alperen Şengün. They are in great position to once again finish with a top three pick in this year’s draft, and this season, finishing top two likely means Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson.
While in theory, Houston could hold on to all the draft picks and have a chance to select the top talent in the coming drafts, the reality is that the Rockets just secured a deep budget to rebuild the team.
Outside of Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Jae’Sean Tate, no one on the current Rockets roster is owed more than $6.5 million next season. While Porter is on the books for $15.86 million guaranteed in 2023-24, his contract is more than movable considering he only has guaranteed money for that season, and the Rockets have all the draft picks they can attach to entice a team to take him if needed.
Houston has all the resources it needs to be able to jump at the next time a disgruntled star demands a trade, similar to Donovan Mitchell this past offseason. If the Philadelphia 76ers’ season goes awry, a James Harden reunion could be in the works too, according to a report earlier in the season from Adrian Wojnarowski.
While Harden himself is not enough anymore to move the needle for the Rockets back to contention, Houston’s draft capital can help surround the team with key pieces to quickly turn the landscape around in what could be a team headlined by three top three draft picks.
With players like Khris Middleton, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and Jaylen Brown potentially hitting the free agency market in the next two offseasons as well, having flexibility is key for any team seeking to lure them away, and that is exactly what the Rockets have with the Nets’ implosion.
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Cross your fingers that Isaac Paredes’s hamstring tweak Thursday night is only a tweak. The Astros’ mediocre lineup would absorb a hard blow if Paredes winds up heading to the Injured List. But don’t worry, is there any doubt the Astros’ medical staff has it handled? Paredes has been excellent, a better player than was 2024 Alex Bregman. If he is to miss some time with the sore hammy, that will hurt Paredes’s “on pace for” numbers, but his 15th home run of the season Thursday has him on pace for 35, his 42nd run batted in has him on pace for 98. Reminder that Paredes is making $6,625,000 this season versus Bregman’s 40 million. The Astros sure hope that Paredes doesn’t wind up joining Bregman on the IL.
Follow the money
Never blame a player for grabbing every last dollar he can. However, when taking more money to join a clearly lesser organization, one loses the ability to honestly say, “winning is the most important thing to me.” It’s no sin if winning isn’t absolute priority one. It’s a life choice and business decision. Hello Carlos Correa.
The Astros host the Minnesota Twins at Daikin Park this weekend. Correa is now in his fourth season with the Twins. If his level of play doesn’t pick up, it will be the worst season of his career. Correa is in the third year of the six-year 200 million dollar contract he signed with Minnesota after exercising his opt out clause following the first year of the three-year deal he initially inked with the Twins. In total he has seven years with and 235 million dollars coming from the Twins. When Correa first hit free agency the Astros final offer to keep him was a very reasonable five years and 160 million dollars. If Correa had re-upped with the Astros, he’d have become a free agent after next season. No way would he then have gotten 75 million over two years to match the total haul of 235 over seven he bagged.
Financially, Correa played it correctly. But is he having the same fun playing home games in Minneapolis where the Twins are averaging barely over 20,000 per game in announced attendance, versus the Astros who are announcing about 32,000 per? Correa has played in the postseason once in the three years, and the Astros eliminated him, while the Astros have been in every year. The Twins start the series here this weekend with a record only a game and a half behind the Astros, but while the Astros lead the weak American League West by four and a half games, the Twins about need a telescope to see the Detroit Tigers eight games in front of them in the AL Central. The AL West is the only of the six divisions in Major League Baseball that has just one team with a winning record.
Correa turns 31 years old September 22, the same day Jeremy Pena turns 28. Correa is making over 37 million dollars this season. The Astros are paying Pena four-point-four mil. Over 2026 and 2027 Correa will pull down nearly 65 mil. Over those same two seasons, the Astros will likely pay Pena a total of between 20 and 25 million. Last season Correa was a significantly better player than Pena, except that Carlos played only 86 games. This year Pena has made a quantum leap and is playing like a superstar, while Correa’s game has eroded. Fun factoids: Pena stole his 14th base of the season Wednesday. Correa’s last stolen base came in 2019. To be fair, speed was never a signature of Correa's game.
Double trouble
In 1948 the Boston Braves had a tandem of starting pitching aces in future Hall of Famer Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain. The rest of the rotation was a bit shaky. Boston sportswriter Gerald Hearn wrote “First we’ll use Spahn, then we’ll use Sain, then an off day followed by rain. Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain, and followed we hope by two days rain.” Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez are the Spahn and Sain of the 2025 Astros. Brown has been marvelous all season, Valdez has a 2.02 earned run average over his last seven starts. I leave Brown/Valdez poetry to you.
Spahn is among the handful of greatest left-handed pitchers in history. He debuted in 1942 and pitched in four games, before serving in World War II that took him out of the 1943, ‘44, and ‘45 seasons. Spahn logged his first big league win in 1946 when he was 25 years old. He’d win 362 more and will never be caught for the honor of most wins by a lefty in big league history. As a 42-year-old Spahn went 23-7 and threw 22 complete games. When men were men! It was the 13th time in Spahn’s career that he was a 20-game winner.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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