Saints 31, Bucs 24

Saints vs Bucs 1: Good, bad & ugly

Saints vs Bucs 1: Good, bad & ugly
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In a game that was a lot closer than Saints fans would've liked, the Saints improved to 4-1 with a 31-24 win over the division rival Tampa Bay Bucs. Here's take a look at my observations:

The Good

-Theodore Edmond Bridgewater had his breakout/reemerging performance since coming back from a gruesome leg injury that could've ended his career just over three years ago. 26/34 for 314 yards and four touchdowns was his first game with 300 yards passing while completing 70% or more of his passes since October 25, 2015. That was his Pro Bowl year with the Vikings.

-One guy that truly helped Bridgewater have the type of performance he did was All Pro receiver Michael Thomas. He tallied 11 catches on 13 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns. Thomas hadn't scored a touchdown since the Seahawks win (that was his first of the season) and this was his first 100+ yard receiving game since the first game of the season. With this game, Thomas got back to his All-Pro self.

-The defense played lights out. The two guys that stuck out in my eyes were their last two first round draft picks: Marson Lattimore (#11 pick in 2017 draft) and Marcus Davenport (#14 pick in 2018 draft). Lattimore held Bucs' All Pro reciever Mike Evans to zero catches on three targets as he shadowed him all game long. Davenport had two of the six sacks on Jameis Winston. There were other defenders that had good performances, but these two guys will be building blocks for this defense's future.

The Bad

-The Saints won the rushing yardage differential by a +18 margin. However, a 3.6 yards per carry average isn't going to cut it. Under normal circumstances, a 3.6 average means three yards and a cloud of dust is producing first downs. Playing with a backup quarterback, you need better and more consistent production from the run game.

-Bridgewater's lone mistake was an interception late in the first quarter. It set the Bucs up on the Saints' 26 yard line and only took them two plays to cash in on the mistake for a go-ahead touchdown to put them up 7-3. This could've been a turning point in Tampa's favor.

-21 of Bridegwater's 28 completions went to three guys: Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Jared Cook. At their respective positions, they're the best the Saints have to offer. But if three guys are going to be the focus of your offense, all it takes is some decent talent and a good coach to force a team into situations where their pass game is rendered ineffective.

The Ugly

-Bucs' corner Carlton Davis was ejected in the second quarter for targeting after a helmet to helmet hit on Cook. It was clearly targeting and Davis would have to be a complete idiot to appeal any fine or suspension that comes about. Slow motion presents the hit in a different light, but it should have been obvious to Davis that he was wrong. Had he lowered his shoulder more and hit Cook in the chest when he turned around, he would've still separated Cook from the ball and stayed in the game. This is one instance in which I'll say the defender could've done something different and should have.

-Passing 36 times and running 31 times isn't a winning formula, especially when Drew Brees is out. The 112 yards rushing with that 3.6 yards per carry average exasperated that play call disparity. While some analytics nowadays would suggest passing more leads to better efficiency, the eye test says the more ball control a team has, the more success they'll have. Despite this, the Saints still had a seven minute time off possession average.

-Wide receiver Tre'Quan Smith injured an ankle and left the game late in the fourth quarter. No word yet on if it's the same ankle injury that caused Smith to miss the previous two weeks or not. This will hurt an already thin depth chart at receiver for the Saints and could be an ongoing issue all season.

This win moved the Saints to 4-1, but also 3-0 while Bridewater has started during Brees' injury. It also puts them firmly in the conversation for one of the best teams in the league. When you put yourself in that conversation and your future Hall of Fame quarterback is still out, that says a lot about the other guys on that team. There's a matchup in a couple weeks with the Bears that will truly test this team. They can't look past anybody because this is the NFL. Next week is a visit to Jacksonville where a battle of the backups will take place. Will Minshew-Mania reign supreme, or does Bridgewater continue his audition for the permanent job as Brees' heir-apparent?

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It's Week 18 of the NFL season, which means just one more weekend remains before postseason action begins.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and star quarterback Patrick Mahomes look like a formidable opponent once again and have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC bracket with a 15-1 record.

Over in the NFC, a crucial game awaits when the Minnesota Vikings (14-2) travel to face the Detroit Lions (14-2) on Sunday in a game that will decide the division winner, the No. 1 seed in the conference and home-field advantage until the Super Bowl.

Here are some more things to watch as the regular season winds down:

NFL playoff picture

AFC

Six of the seven spots in the playoff bracket are secure, though the seeding is still up for grabs in some situations. The Chiefs are the top seed while the Buffalo Bills (13-3) own the No. 2 spot. The Baltimore Ravens (11-5), Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) and Houston Texans (9-7) also know they have more football to play. The Ravens can clinch the No. 3 spot in the bracket with a win over the Browns. The Texans are locked into the No. 4 spot despite a worse record than some teams because they've clinched their division.

As for the seventh team, the Denver Broncos (9-7) are in good position though the Miami Dolphins (8-8) and Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) still have hope. The problem for the Dolphins and Bengals is the Broncos can earn the final spot with a win against Kansas City this weekend, and there's not much incentive for the Chiefs to play their starters considering they've already got the No. 1 seed wrapped up.

NFC

Much like the AFC, six of the seven spots are taken. The Vikings, Lions, Philadelphia Eagles (13-3), Green Bay Packers (11-5), Los Angeles Rams (10-6) and Washington Commanders (11-5) will be in the bracket. Minnesota and Detroit will duke it out for the No. 1 seed next Sunday while the loser falls all the way to No. 5. The Eagles have secured the No. 2 spot.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) have the inside track for the final spot, needing a win over the New Orleans Saints this weekend to secure their place. If they lose, the Atlanta Falcons (8-8) could still sneak into the bracket if they beat the Carolina Panthers.

NFL playoff format

The 14-team bracket enters its fifth season after debuting during the 2020 season. Seven teams advance to the postseason from both the AFC and the NFC.

The four division winners in each conference earn the top four seeds, ranked by their records. The last three teams are all wild-card selections, also ranked by record.

The format means the No. 1 seed in each conference is very important because it guarantees a wild card round bye and homefield advantage until the Super Bowl. For the other 12 teams in the opening round, the No. 7 seed travels to the No. 2 seed, No. 6 goes to No. 3 and No. 5 travels to No. 4.

NFL playoff schedule

Jan. 11-13: Wild Card Round. Two games on Saturday, three on Sunday, one on Monday.

Jan. 18-19: Divisional Round. Two games on Saturday, two on Sunday.

Jan. 26: AFC and NFC Conference Championships.

Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX at the Superdome in New Orleans.

NFL playoff betting odds

According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the Chiefs are the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +375. The Lions are right behind them at +400 while the Bills are third at +550.

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