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In a game that was a lot closer than Saints fans would've liked, the Saints improved to 4-1 with a 31-24 win over the division rival Tampa Bay Bucs. Here's take a look at my observations:
The Good
-Theodore Edmond Bridgewater had his breakout/reemerging performance since coming back from a gruesome leg injury that could've ended his career just over three years ago. 26/34 for 314 yards and four touchdowns was his first game with 300 yards passing while completing 70% or more of his passes since October 25, 2015. That was his Pro Bowl year with the Vikings.
-One guy that truly helped Bridgewater have the type of performance he did was All Pro receiver Michael Thomas. He tallied 11 catches on 13 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns. Thomas hadn't scored a touchdown since the Seahawks win (that was his first of the season) and this was his first 100+ yard receiving game since the first game of the season. With this game, Thomas got back to his All-Pro self.
-The defense played lights out. The two guys that stuck out in my eyes were their last two first round draft picks: Marson Lattimore (#11 pick in 2017 draft) and Marcus Davenport (#14 pick in 2018 draft). Lattimore held Bucs' All Pro reciever Mike Evans to zero catches on three targets as he shadowed him all game long. Davenport had two of the six sacks on Jameis Winston. There were other defenders that had good performances, but these two guys will be building blocks for this defense's future.
The Bad
-The Saints won the rushing yardage differential by a +18 margin. However, a 3.6 yards per carry average isn't going to cut it. Under normal circumstances, a 3.6 average means three yards and a cloud of dust is producing first downs. Playing with a backup quarterback, you need better and more consistent production from the run game.
-Bridgewater's lone mistake was an interception late in the first quarter. It set the Bucs up on the Saints' 26 yard line and only took them two plays to cash in on the mistake for a go-ahead touchdown to put them up 7-3. This could've been a turning point in Tampa's favor.
-21 of Bridegwater's 28 completions went to three guys: Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Jared Cook. At their respective positions, they're the best the Saints have to offer. But if three guys are going to be the focus of your offense, all it takes is some decent talent and a good coach to force a team into situations where their pass game is rendered ineffective.
The Ugly
-Bucs' corner Carlton Davis was ejected in the second quarter for targeting after a helmet to helmet hit on Cook. It was clearly targeting and Davis would have to be a complete idiot to appeal any fine or suspension that comes about. Slow motion presents the hit in a different light, but it should have been obvious to Davis that he was wrong. Had he lowered his shoulder more and hit Cook in the chest when he turned around, he would've still separated Cook from the ball and stayed in the game. This is one instance in which I'll say the defender could've done something different and should have.
-Passing 36 times and running 31 times isn't a winning formula, especially when Drew Brees is out. The 112 yards rushing with that 3.6 yards per carry average exasperated that play call disparity. While some analytics nowadays would suggest passing more leads to better efficiency, the eye test says the more ball control a team has, the more success they'll have. Despite this, the Saints still had a seven minute time off possession average.
-Wide receiver Tre'Quan Smith injured an ankle and left the game late in the fourth quarter. No word yet on if it's the same ankle injury that caused Smith to miss the previous two weeks or not. This will hurt an already thin depth chart at receiver for the Saints and could be an ongoing issue all season.
This win moved the Saints to 4-1, but also 3-0 while Bridewater has started during Brees' injury. It also puts them firmly in the conversation for one of the best teams in the league. When you put yourself in that conversation and your future Hall of Fame quarterback is still out, that says a lot about the other guys on that team. There's a matchup in a couple weeks with the Bears that will truly test this team. They can't look past anybody because this is the NFL. Next week is a visit to Jacksonville where a battle of the backups will take place. Will Minshew-Mania reign supreme, or does Bridgewater continue his audition for the permanent job as Brees' heir-apparent?
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Winning consecutive series over last place teams does not mean all is well again in Astroworld, but taking five of seven games from the Orioles and Rockies stopped the bleeding which saw the Astros stumble through an awful 14-23 stretch. The regular season is now in its final month, the Astros are in the middle of three different playoff races. The high-end goal is finishing with one of the two best records in the American League to secure a bye past the two out of three lightning round Major League Baseball calls the Wild Card Series. Entering the holiday weekend the Astros sit four games behind the Toronto Blue Jays, three and a half back of the Detroit Tigers. If the Astros can’t overtake either the Jays or Tigers, they at least want to hold off Seattle to win the American League West. Winning the division for an eighth consecutive full season would be its own accomplishment, for the postseason it would at least assure the Astros of homefield advantage in a best-of-three. The race the Astros hope to need to pay little attention to is holding off Kansas City for the final wild card spot. That would be necessary should the Astros lose out on the division title to the Mariners, and finish behind both the second and third place finishers in the AL East in the wild card race, presently the Red Sox and Yankees. The M’s, Bosox, and Yanks all finishing ahead of the Astros is a clear possibility. The good news on that front is the Astros holding a five game lead over the Royals with 28 games to go, though Kansas City does win the tiebreaker should it come to that. The Astros have a significantly easier closing schedule than do the Royals. The Astros have just six games left against teams that would currently qualify for the postseason. The Royals have 12. So to miss the playoffs entirely the Astros basically have to fold, and/or the Royals need to play four weeks of spectacular baseball.
Yordan Alvarez’s looooong awaited return is a big boost to the lineup. Even if he isn't peak Yordan, his presence matters. His missile of a home run to centerfield was the wow moment of his return series, but Alvarez drawing five walks in nine plate appearances speaks to what opponents think of him. Still, offense remains an Astro struggle all too often. The Rockies have the worst pitching staff in MLB. The Astros managed nine runs in three games against it. At least that was enough to win two out of three. 67 times this season the Astros have scored three or fewer runs, equaling their three or fewer total of the entire 2024 season. For a good while this year the Astros were winning an amazing percentage of their games where the offense did little. At one point the Astros were 19-27 when scoring three or fewer, which was stunning success and as I wrote at the time, wholly unsustainable. Since then, the Astros have lost 20 of the last 21 games in which they failed to score four.
Christian Walker’s power surge has been a boon, of late helping offset Jose Altuve’s slump (just 10 hits in his last 60 at bats heading into the Angels series) and Carlos Correa’s lack of thump (just two extra base hits and a sub-.700 OPS over his last 15 games). Over 46 games played from July 1 through Thursday, Walker has been very good hitting .279 with an .859 OPS. That doesn't undo his being wretched through June, but credit where credit is due.
Alvarez is the big bopper (remember the ex-Astro who had that nickname?) addition to Joe Espada's lineup cards, but Jake Meyers could be a lower key big return as well next week. To call Chas McCormick and Jacob Melton poor offensive players this season would be an understatement along the lines of saying Yao Ming is above average in height. When Meyers blew out his right calf it short-circuited what was his breakout big league season. Even if Meyers can't regain that form, by accident he'll still be better than what McCormick and Melton have provided.
After finishing up with the Angels on Labor Day, the Astros get the Yankees for three big games at Daikin Park starting Tuesday. Hunter Brown starting Sunday means he will not pitch against the Yankees. That's not a mistake, it's just how the rotation falls. It will be a mistake if the Astros' brain trust doesn't properly map out starting pitching ahead of the massive matchups against the Mariners September 19, 20, 21 and make sure both Brown and Framber Valdez start games in that series. After this homestand wraps, the Astro have only six home games remaining versus 15 on the road.
Oh yeah. Glenn Davis was "The Big Bopper."
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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