Sam Houston Race Park selections for Saturday, April 13 (with bonus selections on the Arkansas Derby card at Oaklawn and Lexington at Keeneland)

Trump My Record runs at Sam Houston Race Park Saturday night. Hodges Photography

Here are my selections for Saturday. These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP). Also, it is Arkansas Derby Day at Oaklawn, and if you are looking for some simulcast action before Sam starts, we have a few plays for you...As to SHRP, these are all 2-year-old races and most have never run, so we are basically making our best guess by looking a breeding, trainers and works. It is not a card I have a lot of confidence in, but good luck today! We also have bonus picks on the cards for the final major Derby preps - the Arkansas Derby and Lexington:


Race 4: The Count Fleet features one of the best sprinters in America in No. 4 Whitmore. But we like No. 1 Mitole to pull a mild upset. Straight exacta 1-4.

Race 9: The Oaklawn Handicap. Rain is expected and it should be a sloppy track. If so, we will bet No. 3 Chris and Dave across the board. If the track is fast, we will pass.

Race 11: Arkansas Derby. This one should come down to four horses to win the race - No. 1 Improbable, No. 3 Omaha Beach, No. 8 Country House an No. 11 Long Range Toddy (terrible name by the way). We will play the trifecta with 1-3-8-11 on top with 1-2-3-5-6-8-11 with 1-2-3-5-6-8-11. I like this play on a fast or wt track and you can play it for .50 if you don't want to spend more than $60.


Race 9: The Lexington Stakes. I like No. 3 Sueno off an OK third in the Louisiana Derby. If he returns a stalking trip, I like his chances a lot. Will play across the board and wheel first and second in exactas with the 1-2-4-5-6-9-10. I will also double dip and take long shot Senden, who hung in there against probable Derby favorite Tacitus in his last start. So bet the 9 across and go 9 with 1-2-3-4-5-6-10 and 1-2-3-4-5-6-10 with 9. I will also hit the 3-9 box a couple extra times.


AGAVERO CARTEL has harp works for the career debut

CANELO ALVAREZ might pack a...punch at first asking?

BABY LICIOUS just missed in a big race in Louisiana

TRS HOMBRE looks as good as any in a wide open affair

TRUMP MY RECORD is already a stakes winner after two starts

KOMMANDER just missed in debut and should improve here

DIAMOND DOMINATION could surprise at a nice price

GBH STREAKINFORGIRLS is bred to run early and has solid works

DOC HOCKADAY has fired off a pair of bullet works for this

J RODS MACHO MAN has a nice win under his belt, which should give him an edge

NSM ICE STORM has nice works and is bred to run early

CLICK CLICK BANG has solid works for good connections

CY ME AND YOU PROSPECT was OK in debut and should improve in start No. 2

HES EL MARTILLO was close in debut in Oklahoma; should move forward

QUEEN CORONADA has a couple nice works and is bred to be quick

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The Texans host the Steelers at NRG this Sunday. Composite Getty Image.

What: Texans vs. Steelers

When: 10/1 12pm CST kickoff

Where: Houston, TX NRG Stadium

TV/Radio: KHOU-TV, KILT-Radio

Betting Lines: Steelers -2.5 (-120), O/U 42 (-110) *As of this writing

The Watt Brother Bowl takes place on Sunday. I'm calling it that because the Texans are honoring their all-time great J.J. while they're playing his younger brother and current hell raising edge rusher for the Steelers T.J. The Steelers have won four of the last five matchups vs. the Texans by an average score of 28-17. The biggest difference is that the Steelers have a second year starter at quarterback in Kenny Pickett, and the Texans have a rookie in C.J. Stroud. When you look at the two quarterbacks, both organizations have full faith in each guy. Both teams have tried to build a defense to help their young signal callers. Both are still trying to surround their franchise guys with weapons.

When the Steelers have the ball: Here's a game where Will Anderson Jr can make headway as a proven EDGE. Stacking consistent performances together and helping your team win games by making winning plays. It helps that Pickett has tiny hands. This was a knock on him during draft season last year. Hand size for a quarterback impacts grip. That can not only impact accuracy, but it could make it easier to strip the ball from him.

While he doesn't have the weapons to torch this defense, Pickett does hand the ball off to Najee Harris who's more than capable. Averaging only 67 yards rushing as a team can't be taken lightly. Denzel Perryman is expected to miss the game Sunday, so hopefully that won't help jumpstart the Steelers' run game. The Texans defense will have to key in on the run, given that they average giving up 117 a game on the ground. Those aforementioned weapons may not be scary, but the injuries to the defensive backs has hurt. Tavierre Thomas is expected to miss the game recovering from hand surgery. Jimmie Ward coming back last week showed what happens when they have a top safety back there, especially when the pass rush is turning up. Hopefully, the Texans can capitalize again this week, with safety Jalen Pitre expected to return to action.

When the Texans have the ball: Good luck stopping Tank Dell and Stroud! These guys have already established themselves as a formidable duo three games into their careers. A great way to get that connection going is to pound the rock. The Steelers are giving up over 150 yards on the ground per game so far this season. That's also a good way to keep T.J. at bay while J.J. watches. With Laremy Tunsil and Josh Jones both expected to miss the game, here are the offensive line starters: Austin Deculus, Kendrick Green, Jarrett Patterson, Shaq Mason, and George Fant.

Making the younger Watt brother slow down a bit instead of going balls to the wall after Stroud because a run could be coming will help the pass game tremendously. Stroud will have to continue to make quick decisions, but even quicker this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see his first pick of his career here, given the pressure he's most likely to be under. Especially when your offensive line starters were mostly all backups to begin this season.

Outcome: I failed to place a money line bet on the Texans last week because the game started and the live bet wasn't as profitable. I wanted to take a chance on them given their recent record against the Jags. Looking at their last five vs. the Steelers, one would say why make that bet this week? It's because I believe in Stroud more than I believe in Pickett. While T.J. Watt is a different kind of monster, Will Anderson Jr is on his way to becoming something special. Texans win/cover, and hit the over, but barely: Texans 24, Steelers 20.

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