PLAYING THE PONIES
Sam Houston Race Park selections for Saturday, Jan. 11
Jan 11, 2020, 6:50 am
PLAYING THE PONIES
Here are my selections for Saturday night. These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP). We will be doing The Blitz from 4-7 at the track so please drop by.
FIRST
1-6-7-4
Won't get much value but Broberg duo looks very tough here
SECOND
6-2-1-5
FIFTEEN LOVE BACK offers nice value and a good record over the track
THIRD
1-3-8-4
SNEEM has three wins - all at this trip - and should be in the mix
FOURTH
3-7-6-8
DONTBEFOOLISH gets in with state breds and should like this spot
FIFTH
7-6-12-11
CULPER thrived in first start for new barn and should continue to improve
SIXTH
8-2-6-7
HURRY BACK has been close in a few spots and maybe tonight is the night
SEVENTH
1-11-12-13
EMPIRE OF GOLD has been sharp in two starts and might break through
EIGHTH
6-8-1-2
EURODEVILWOMAN has a string of runner-up finishes; maybe it's breakthrough time
NINTH
4-2-3-7
LOVE TO LEARN has been on some tough circuits and should be in the mix
TENTH
1-2-7-6
CATCH THE DEVIL has some decent works for the debut
As the Astros head down the homestretch, it appears some reinforcements are arriving at the perfect time.
One day after the return of Justin Verlander to the starting rotation, the Astros are adding a top-notch high-leverage relief pitcher.
According to multiple reports, the Astros are signing former Houston reliever Hector Neris.
The Astros are close to a major-league deal with reliever Héctor Neris, source confirms what @AriA1exander first reported. The Cubs DFAd Neris earlier this week. Houston would be on the hook for the prorated league minimum salary.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) August 22, 2024
The timing of this move couldn't be better, with Ryan Pressly on the injured list and Bryan Abreu racking up a massive amount of innings.
Neris was arguably the club's most dominant relief pitcher last season, posting a 1.71 ERA and coming up with some huge outs in the postseason.
Neris also brings leadership to a team that lost Martin Maldonado and Michael Brantley after the 2023 season.
His ability to get left-handed hitters out with his nasty splitter will definitely come in handy down the stretch and hopefully into the playoffs.
Last season, Neris held left-handed batters to a .155 batting average and only allowed one homer to lefties. He was also effective against righties, who only recorded a .187 batting average against him.
If he's so good, why did the Cubs release him?
If Neris had continued pitching for Chicago, he would have hit certain milestones in his contract that would guarantee his salary for next season. So the Cubs decided to put him on waivers and eventually DFA him.
Neris also won't be expected to be the team's closer in Houston. He will provide Joe Espada with another quality option to attack hitters late in games.
And while Kaleb Ort and Tayler Scott have been pleasant surprises this season, 2024 has been an outlier when looking at their career numbers.
Also, Scott has been used a lot this season, and we're seeing some diminishing returns. In his last 8 outings, he's given up at least one run in 4 of them.
What should we expect?
Neris is sporting a 3.89 ERA in 2024, but the biggest concern is his 1.52 WHIP. His WHIP is inflated because of the massive amount of walks he's allowing.
Hector is surrendering over FIVE walks per nine innings this season. A number he's only reached in the COVID-shorted season.
Last year, he walked a little over four batters per nine innings. So he's walking one extra hitter per nine this season. And when we look back at his 2022 numbers with the 'Stros, he was only allowing free passes at a rate of 2.3 per nine innings.
Hopefully, reuniting with the Houston pitching coaches will help him get that walk number down and make him more effective.
Double whammy!
Neris had a lot of interest since his release from the Cubs, so it says a lot that he wanted to return to Houston instead of going to the Yankees, Red Sox, or another contending team. Plus, his signing with the 'Stros not only strengthens them, but also keeps him from making one of Houston's competitors stronger.
It's a win-win for Hector. If he pitches well for the remainder of the season, he'll likely get another nice contract in the offseason either from the Astros or another team.
If Neris pitches up to his potential and Pressly returns healthy and effective, it's hard to imagine a better bullpen than the Astros'.
He also provides an extra arm to go to when Josh Hader, Pressly, or Abreu are unavailable in a must-win situation.
Be sure to watch the video above as we examine the addition of Neris, and discuss how Alex Bregman's arm injury will impact the DH spot in the lineup, and the challenges this will present moving forward.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.