Sam Houston Race Park selections for Saturday, March 30 (with bonus picks on the Florida Derby and Dubai World Cup)
Mar 30, 2019, 6:10 am
Coady Photography
Here are my selections for Saturday, the final night of thoroughbred racing for 2019 (sad). These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP). We also have some bonus plays on the Dubai World Cup and Florida Derby:
DUBAI WORLD CUP
Race 9, Meydan: Cappezzano is an interesting horse who has reeled off three straight big performances over the surface. Gunnevera is one of our all-time favorite go tos in big races. Thunder Snow won this race last year. But I am intrigued by Yoshida, who has only two dirt starts and both are strong.
The play: Exacta wheels 10 with 1-2-3-4-5-7-11-12, 1-2-3-4-5-7-11-12 with 10, and we will bet the 10 across the board.
FLORIDA DERBY
Race 13, Gulfsstream Park:Hidden Scroll was a beaten favorite in the Fountain of Youth, but he was involved in a wicked speed duel. He should be better here, but he also figures to get caught up in a similar scenario with speedsters Maximum Security and Hard Belle stretching out. That sets it up nicely for Bourbon War, Code of Honor and perhaps Harvey Wallbanger.
The play: Exacta wheels 4 with 1-3-5-8-9 and 1-3-5-8-9 with 4. I think you could could also wheel the 4 first and second with the same horses in the trifecta.
FIRST
9-2-8-1
LITTLE SAMMY SV was in tough in last but priors fit in this field
SECOND
3-4-6-5
OLETA INEZ just missed in last and should be in the mix here
THIRD
10-7-2-1
BRENDA'S FEVER was solid at Fair Grounds and will be tough here
FOURTH
9-8-3-6
BWANA GO has been sharp last three and will have a shot if form holds
FIFTH
7-8-11-12
ALPHA AND OMEGA needed last and has a great record over the surface
SIXTH
1-2-8-4
FOREST GIRL is in sharp form and distance should be perfect
SEVENTH
8-4-5-6
ALLITERATIVE should improve in this spot and could turn the tables
EIGHTH
6-1-3-8
STARFACE GUY gets back in for a tag and fits in this spot
NINTH
1-8-9-5
GOLD LABEL ships in from New Orleans and will be very tough
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After dropping a frustrating series to the Chicago White Sox, the Houston Astros find themselves in a familiar position—searching for answers, but still within striking distance. Despite their inconsistency, Houston sits just three games behind the AL West-leading Mariners, who are currently 7 games over .500 and riding an 8-2 stretch. For as up-and-down as the Astros have been, the division remains tantalizingly close.
That inconsistency was on full display throughout the White Sox series. Jake Meyers and Zach Dezenzo each played the roles of both hero and heartbreaker. Dezenzo launched a massive home run in Game 3, a moment that energized the dugout and briefly shifted momentum. But his costly defensive error later in the game flipped the script. Meyers was a spark plug in Houston’s lone win, delivering a clutch performance at the plate, only to run the team out of a rally in the finale when he was picked off second—right before Jeremy Peña ripped what would have been an RBI single.
Jose Altuve’s struggles are quietly becoming more worrisome. He’s recorded just one multi-hit game since April 19 and has only one homer since April 8. On Sunday, he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had grinded through a 33-pitch inning—a decision that raised questions about his awareness in a veteran moment. Should manager Joe Espada have reminded Altuve of the situation? Or is this on Altuve, who should have known what to do as one of the team leaders?
Signs of life
There are flickers of life from the bats. Last week, Houston's team OPS was an underwhelming .667 (23rd in MLB), with a slugging percentage of .357 (25th). They've nudged those numbers up to .684 (19th) and .370 (21st), respectively. It’s modest progress, but enough to suggest this offense might be trending in the right direction. Still, their 5-5 record over the last 10 games feels emblematic of who they are right now—a .500 team with both talent and flaws.
Looking ahead
The upcoming schedule could be a turning point. Three of the next five opponents have losing records, and none of them are elite. This stretch offers a prime opportunity for Houston to finally build momentum and close the gap in the division—assuming the Mariners cool off from their current tear, which seems inevitable given their unsustainable 8-2 pace.
McCullers is officially back!
Lance McCullers returned for the first time since 2022 and, despite being limited to 3.2 innings due to command issues (three walks and a hit batter), there were encouraging signs. His velocity was there, and the stuff looked sharp. It’s a start, and perhaps a step toward stabilizing a rotation that still needs length.
Steering the ship
Manager Joe Espada, however, continues to draw scrutiny. His decision-making in the finale raised eyebrows again. Giving Isaac Paredes a day off when Yordan Alvarez was already sitting left the lineup depleted. Rather than using promising young infielder/outfielder Cam Smith, he opted for Mauricio Dubón and Brendan Rodgers—a defensive combo that didn't inspire confidence. It feels at times like Espada isn’t prioritizing winning the final game of a series, a pattern that could haunt the team down the stretch.
The plot thickens
Meanwhile, Christian Walker’s slump is dragging on. He went 0-for-5 twice in the last two series and looks out of sync at the plate. The Astros need more from their power hitters if they hope to make a real run. And with Alvarez now heading to the IL with hand inflammation, runs will be even harder to come by.
All told, this team still feels like one hovering just above or below .500. But in a division that remains wide open, the path forward is clear: play better, hope the Mariners come back to earth, and capitalize on a soft schedule. The race is far from over—but it’s time for Houston to start acting like contenders.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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