Sam Houston Race Park selections for Saturday, March 30 (with bonus picks on the Florida Derby and Dubai World Cup)
Mar 30, 2019, 6:10 am
Here are my selections for Saturday, the final night of thoroughbred racing for 2019 (sad). These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP). We also have some bonus plays on the Dubai World Cup and Florida Derby:
DUBAI WORLD CUP
Race 9, Meydan: Cappezzano is an interesting horse who has reeled off three straight big performances over the surface. Gunnevera is one of our all-time favorite go tos in big races. Thunder Snow won this race last year. But I am intrigued by Yoshida, who has only two dirt starts and both are strong.
The play: Exacta wheels 10 with 1-2-3-4-5-7-11-12, 1-2-3-4-5-7-11-12 with 10, and we will bet the 10 across the board.
FLORIDA DERBY
Race 13, Gulfsstream Park:Hidden Scroll was a beaten favorite in the Fountain of Youth, but he was involved in a wicked speed duel. He should be better here, but he also figures to get caught up in a similar scenario with speedsters Maximum Security and Hard Belle stretching out. That sets it up nicely for Bourbon War, Code of Honor and perhaps Harvey Wallbanger.
The play: Exacta wheels 4 with 1-3-5-8-9 and 1-3-5-8-9 with 4. I think you could could also wheel the 4 first and second with the same horses in the trifecta.
FIRST
9-2-8-1
LITTLE SAMMY SV was in tough in last but priors fit in this field
SECOND
3-4-6-5
OLETA INEZ just missed in last and should be in the mix here
THIRD
10-7-2-1
BRENDA'S FEVER was solid at Fair Grounds and will be tough here
FOURTH
9-8-3-6
BWANA GO has been sharp last three and will have a shot if form holds
FIFTH
7-8-11-12
ALPHA AND OMEGA needed last and has a great record over the surface
SIXTH
1-2-8-4
FOREST GIRL is in sharp form and distance should be perfect
SEVENTH
8-4-5-6
ALLITERATIVE should improve in this spot and could turn the tables
EIGHTH
6-1-3-8
STARFACE GUY gets back in for a tag and fits in this spot
NINTH
1-8-9-5
GOLD LABEL ships in from New Orleans and will be very tough
When DeMeco Ryans became coach of the Houston Texans before last season, the two-time Pro Bowl linebacker brought his swarm defense with him.
It’s an identity the Texans have embraced as they prepare for their second straight trip to the divisional round of the playoffs Saturday where they’ll face the Kansas City Chiefs.
“You really can’t go out there if you’re not about it,” Ryans said.
And while every member of the defense has bought into Ryans’ aggressive style, there is one player who epitomizes it like no one else.
“Will every time,” cornerback Derek Stingley said of defensive end Will Anderson Jr.
Anderson, last year’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, has taken his game to another level this season and had 1½ sacks last week after piling up 11 in the regular season.
He described what playing swarm defense means to him.
“Do whatever it takes to get the ball, attacking the ball,” Anderson said. “We’ve got this saying in our D-line room; ‘who gonna pop it off?’ Whoever pops it off first, that’s swarming. Like who’s gonna make the big play? And I feel like there’s a lot of guys on defense that pop it off, who swarm.”
The Texans intercepted Justin Herbert a career-high four times, including one which was returned for a score, in last week’s win over the Chargers after he had been picked off just three times all season. Houston’s four takeaways in the first week of the playoffs are tied with Philadelphia for most in the NFL.
That performance came after Houston ranked fifth in the league in the regular season by forcing 29 turnovers.
Stingley, who had two of the interceptions last week a day after earning AP All-Pro honors, shared his mindset on the team’s defensive mentality.
“It really just comes down to if I was to tell you this is the last time you’re gonna do something, how you gonna do it,” Stingley said. “It’s simple as that. Just do that every single play.”
Ryans said there’s really no secret to why his team has such a knack for forcing turnovers. He believes it’s because he has good players, and they emphasize it in practice which translates to games.
“That’s our main thing that we go into every week is talking about attacking the football, taking the football,” Ryans said. “Because we know, when you take the football away, it just raises your percentages of winning the football games… it’s the defense helping the team win the game.”
While all of Houston’s takeaways last week came on interceptions, Stingley was quick to point out that those picks wouldn’t have happened if not for the pressure the defensive line put on Herbert. The Texans sacked him four times and hit him another nine in the 32-12 victory.
“The defense starts with them up front,” Stingley said. “They’re doing their job and it just makes it easier for us on the back end.”
Anderson said with each turnover, the defense got more and more amped up and was pushing each other to see who the next player would be to force one.
“That’s just that swarm mentality and we just feeding off each other,” Anderson said. “This person can’t do it by themselves so who is gonna be next and that just generates that contagious energy.”
The Texans were the fifth team since 1963 to have at least four sacks, four interceptions and an interception return for a touchdown in a playoff game last week. The past three teams to do it all went on to win the Super Bowl, with Tampa Bay doing so in the 2002 season, Baltimore in 2000 and San Francisco in 1989.
This Texans team would love to keep that going. But first they’ll need a win Saturday to put them in the AFC championship game for the first time after losing their previous five divisional matchups.
“That’s what you come here for,” Anderson said. “That’s what they’ve been rebuilding for is moments like this… we’ve got all the right pieces, we’ve just got to go out there and make it happen.”