PLAYING THE PONIES
Sam Houston Race Park selections for Tuesday, March 12
Mar 12, 2019, 6:50 am
Kentuckyderby.com.
Here are my selections for Tuesday. These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP).
FIRST
1-5-4-3
MEXIA was a beaten favorite in last but Asmussen horses tend to do well stretching out
SECOND
2-5-7-6
SWEETDREAMSTONIGHT should be closer with a cleaner break
THIRD
1-2-4-7
HEIR OF STORM/JACK WITH SEVEN
Both Broberg runners look very tough in this spot
FOURTH
2-8-9-3
HEAT FLASH struggled in last in New Orleans but prior efforts put him right there
FIFTH
8-6-9-7
SOUL SEEKIN has two nice efforts at Delta; looks like a two-horse race on paper
SIXTH
9-7-1-5
OKIE TORNADO is a firster with solid turf pedigree and decent works
SEVENTH
2-6-5-4
KWIK should improve in second start over the surface
EIGHTH
6-5-1-4
BLUSHING KITTEN just missed versus a similar group in last
NINTH
1-8-9-7
TOUCH EM UP looks like the stronger half of a solid entry
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The Houston Texans have a big challenge in store as they look to start the season with a win against the Colts this Sunday. When these two teams met in Week 2 last year, the Colts dominated the Texans, despite losing their QB Anthony Richardson to a concussion after the first quarter.
Keeping Richardson contained on Sunday will go a long way in increasing the Texans' chances of coming home with a win. The Texans defense will have their hands full containing the Colts backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Scoring touchdowns with their wide receivers could prove difficult, as the Texans allowed the second-fewest TDs (10) to the receiver position in 2023.
Limiting running back Jonathan Taylor will also be a top priority. While the Texans had an elite defense against the run last season, they struggled with Taylor in Week 18 as he almost rushed for 200 yards.
Houston's D allowed only four carries to running backs in 2023 that went for 20 or more yards. Two of which were to Taylor in the final game of the regular season.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans and company have to find a way to get pressure on the QB. They only had one QB hit and zero sacks on Richardson and Garner Minshew the first time they faced off last year.
On offense, the Texans have two big x-factors to watch for on Sunday. The offensive line that suited up to play the Colts in Week 2 last season is completely different from this year.
The o-line was ravaged with injuries to start the 2023 campaign, so we expect a big jump in productivity in the trenches this year.
Another big addition in 2024 is the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The running game only produced 2 yards per rush in Week 2 against Indy last year, so there's clearly room for improvement.
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