Playing the ponies

Saturday is Derby Day! Well, Arkansas Derby Day. And here are some plays

Saturday is Derby Day! Well, Arkansas Derby Day. And here are some plays
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Saturday was supposed to be an epic day. The Kentucky Derby followed by a Shinedown Concert at Revention Music Center. Obviously, the Rona had other plans. Still, it has a chance to be a hell of a day. The Arkansas Derby will be run today in two divisions at Oaklawn Park, and the Oaklawn Handicap will also be run. In addition, we will be hosting the last of our charity poker tournaments.

If you are looking for some horse action, we have some plays on the three big races at Oaklawn. While there are no online sites in Texas, you can use offshore sites such as mybookie.ag and betusracing.

So if you are so inclined, here are some plays for Saturday. These are done for a fast track. The weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies but there should be no rain. If so we will update this.

Disclaimer: Nobody bats .1000 on horse racing. I look for live horses at decent prices. If we hit one of these, we're probably profiting. More than one? We will be very happy. So here we go.

ARKANSAS DERBY DIVISION 1 (Race 11 on the card)

It will be very hard to get around the probable odds-on favorite, Charlatan. He is unbeaten in two very fast starts and has all the look of the next Bob Baffert superstar. The second favorite, Gouverneur Morris, might have the best shot at an upset. He was a good fourth in the Florida Derby behind Tiz the Law, perhaps the division leader. Anneau d'Or offers some value at 6-1; his last race was an unmitigated disaster but prior to that he proved he belonged at this level. Crypto Cash and Basin are big long shots that could have an impact.

It will be hard to make much off this, especially if Charlatan is the real deal. We will play some exactas, 1 with 4-8-10-11 and hope we get one of our prices home.

If you want to take a stab against him, I would consider keying the 4 with 1-8-10-11 and 1-8-10-11 with 4 in exactas, but you are probably wasting money.

OAKLAWN HANDICAP (Race 12 on the card)

This is a wide open, competitive race, but I do like a horse with decent odds: No. 4 Mr. Freeze at 6-1. While he is probably better going a mile, he has been competitive at this distance. His losses have come against some of the best in the country in Tom's D'Etat and Mucho Gusto. Would feel better if he had a race over the Oaklawn surface, but he should get a nice trip on or near the lead and I expect him to be in the mix. Beyond that, it is a crap shoot. I will be playing at least one 4-all and all-4 exacta tickets. I will also narrow it down a little and take 4 with 2-3-5-6-8-9-12 and 2-3-5-6-8-9-12 with 4.

Another massive price horse I think has a shot in here is the 8 at 20-1 morning line. He will have to come out of the clouds, but he has been very good in two Oaklawn starts, and almost every horse his trainer sends out these days runs big. I will play weighted win/place/show wagers on him. An example would be based on a $100 bankroll: $50 to show, $30 to place, $20 to win. Obviously you can do it for $10 and go $5, $3, $2, or whatever you want based on how much you are playing. I think he has a much better chance of running third than first, hence the weighted wager.

ARKANSAS DERBY DIVISION 2 (Race 13 on the card)

Nadal is unbeaten and will be a strong favorite. However, I think we can take a shot at beating him. He will face some pace pressure from Wells Bayou, and the hope is these two hook up and battle early, setting it up for a long shot closer. The horse we will use is No. 10 Farmington Road at 12-1. We will bet him much like the eight horse in the prior race, with show/place/win bets weighted with more bet to show and place.

In addition, we will wheel him top and bottom in exactas with a few other contenders. So exactas 10 with 1-3-4-5-7-11 and 1-3-4-5-7-11 with 10. We are banking on a speed duel here, which should set it up for Farmington Road. If it doesn't develop you can probably tear your virtual tickets up on the back stretch.

STARTER ALLOWANCE (Race 14 on the card)

I added this race because it is the last of the Oaklawn meet and one of my favorite races every year; a mile and three quarters starter allowance. Not overthinking things here; I like Carlos Sixes at 4-1. He has won three races and just missed in his fourth at the meet. I will bet him across the board, and wheel him top and bottom in exactas with the field (5-all, all with 5).

Good luck!

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The Tigers beat the Astros, 7-4. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.

Javy Báez capped a five-run third inning with his ninth career grand slam, and the Detroit Tigers avoided a series sweep by beating the Houston Astros 7-4 on Wednesday.

Baez’s two-out homer off AJ Blubaugh (0-1), a 24-year-old right-hander making his major league debut, put the Tigers ahead 7-1. All five runs were unearned due to shortstop Jeremy Peña throwing error on Kerry Carpenter's grounder.

Riley Greene tied his career high with four hits.

Brenan Hanifee (2-0) pitched two scoreless innings in relief of Jackson Jobe, who allowed three runs, four hits and four walks in three innings. Detroit has won five of seven and nine of 13.

Blubaugh (0-1) struck out two in a 1-2-3 first and gave up seven runs — two earned — and five hits in four innings with six strikeouts and a walk.

Blubaugh was optioned back to Sugar Land after the game.

Peña hit the first career leadoff home run, the first of his three hits, but Colt Keith hit a two-run homer in the second to put Detroit ahead for good.

Jose Altuve hit a two-run double in the fifth and Victor Caratini homered in the seventh against Tyler Holton.

Holton struck out Yainer Diaz to strand two runners in the seventh and Tommy Kahnle struck out Christian Walker to leave two runners on in the eighth.

Houston went 2 for 10 with runners in scoring position and stranded 12 runners.

Key moment

Báez drove a high sweeper over the left-field scoreboard.

Key stat

Houston allowed five unearned runs in the third inning after giving up three in its first 29 games.

Up next

Astros: LHP Framber Valdez (1-3 4.00 ERA) opens a three-game series at the Chicago White Sox on Friday night.

Tigers: RHP Casey Mize (4-1 2.12 ERA) opens a four-game series against the Los Angeles Angels and LHP Yusei Kikuchi (0-4, 4.31) on Thursday night.

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