Playing the ponies

Saturday is Derby Day! Well, Arkansas Derby Day. And here are some plays

Saturday is Derby Day! Well, Arkansas Derby Day. And here are some plays
Getty Images

Saturday was supposed to be an epic day. The Kentucky Derby followed by a Shinedown Concert at Revention Music Center. Obviously, the Rona had other plans. Still, it has a chance to be a hell of a day. The Arkansas Derby will be run today in two divisions at Oaklawn Park, and the Oaklawn Handicap will also be run. In addition, we will be hosting the last of our charity poker tournaments.

If you are looking for some horse action, we have some plays on the three big races at Oaklawn. While there are no online sites in Texas, you can use offshore sites such as mybookie.ag and betusracing.

So if you are so inclined, here are some plays for Saturday. These are done for a fast track. The weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies but there should be no rain. If so we will update this.

Disclaimer: Nobody bats .1000 on horse racing. I look for live horses at decent prices. If we hit one of these, we're probably profiting. More than one? We will be very happy. So here we go.

ARKANSAS DERBY DIVISION 1 (Race 11 on the card)

It will be very hard to get around the probable odds-on favorite, Charlatan. He is unbeaten in two very fast starts and has all the look of the next Bob Baffert superstar. The second favorite, Gouverneur Morris, might have the best shot at an upset. He was a good fourth in the Florida Derby behind Tiz the Law, perhaps the division leader. Anneau d'Or offers some value at 6-1; his last race was an unmitigated disaster but prior to that he proved he belonged at this level. Crypto Cash and Basin are big long shots that could have an impact.

It will be hard to make much off this, especially if Charlatan is the real deal. We will play some exactas, 1 with 4-8-10-11 and hope we get one of our prices home.

If you want to take a stab against him, I would consider keying the 4 with 1-8-10-11 and 1-8-10-11 with 4 in exactas, but you are probably wasting money.

OAKLAWN HANDICAP (Race 12 on the card)

This is a wide open, competitive race, but I do like a horse with decent odds: No. 4 Mr. Freeze at 6-1. While he is probably better going a mile, he has been competitive at this distance. His losses have come against some of the best in the country in Tom's D'Etat and Mucho Gusto. Would feel better if he had a race over the Oaklawn surface, but he should get a nice trip on or near the lead and I expect him to be in the mix. Beyond that, it is a crap shoot. I will be playing at least one 4-all and all-4 exacta tickets. I will also narrow it down a little and take 4 with 2-3-5-6-8-9-12 and 2-3-5-6-8-9-12 with 4.

Another massive price horse I think has a shot in here is the 8 at 20-1 morning line. He will have to come out of the clouds, but he has been very good in two Oaklawn starts, and almost every horse his trainer sends out these days runs big. I will play weighted win/place/show wagers on him. An example would be based on a $100 bankroll: $50 to show, $30 to place, $20 to win. Obviously you can do it for $10 and go $5, $3, $2, or whatever you want based on how much you are playing. I think he has a much better chance of running third than first, hence the weighted wager.

ARKANSAS DERBY DIVISION 2 (Race 13 on the card)

Nadal is unbeaten and will be a strong favorite. However, I think we can take a shot at beating him. He will face some pace pressure from Wells Bayou, and the hope is these two hook up and battle early, setting it up for a long shot closer. The horse we will use is No. 10 Farmington Road at 12-1. We will bet him much like the eight horse in the prior race, with show/place/win bets weighted with more bet to show and place.

In addition, we will wheel him top and bottom in exactas with a few other contenders. So exactas 10 with 1-3-4-5-7-11 and 1-3-4-5-7-11 with 10. We are banking on a speed duel here, which should set it up for Farmington Road. If it doesn't develop you can probably tear your virtual tickets up on the back stretch.

STARTER ALLOWANCE (Race 14 on the card)

I added this race because it is the last of the Oaklawn meet and one of my favorite races every year; a mile and three quarters starter allowance. Not overthinking things here; I like Carlos Sixes at 4-1. He has won three races and just missed in his fourth at the meet. I will bet him across the board, and wheel him top and bottom in exactas with the field (5-all, all with 5).

Good luck!

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
It could be a big night for Alperen Sengun. Photo by David Berding/Getty Images.

When: Thursday, 8 p.m. EST
Where: Houston, TX
BetMGM Line: Rockets -10; Over/Under 219

BOTTOM LINE:
The New Orleans Pelicans are looking to end a four-game skid as they take on the Houston Rockets, who have established themselves as a force in the Western Conference this season.

The Rockets (17-9) currently sit third in the West and boast one of the league's best rebounding units, led by Alperen Sengun. Houston has dominated within the division, posting a 4-1 record against Southwest Division opponents. Meanwhile, the Pelicans (5-22) have struggled mightily, especially within their division, where they remain winless at 0-3.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

  • Houston’s Rebounding Edge
    The Rockets lead the Western Conference in rebounding, averaging 49.3 boards per game. Alperen Sengun has been a standout, contributing 10.6 rebounds along with 18.6 points and 5.2 assists per contest. This could spell trouble for a Pelicans squad that has been outmuscled on the glass in recent outings.
  • Pelicans’ Scoring Woes
    New Orleans ranks last in the Western Conference in scoring, putting up just 105.1 points per game on 43.7% shooting. Their offense will be further hampered by injuries to key players like Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Zion Williamson (hamstring), leaving the team with limited options to generate points.
  • Defensive Disparities
    While the Rockets aren’t elite defensively, allowing 106.1 points per game, they should benefit from the Pelicans' offensive struggles. Houston's opponents are shooting just 42.5% in the Rockets' last 10 games, a figure that contrasts with the 48.3% shooting New Orleans allows to opposing teams over the season.

RECENT FORM:

  • Rockets: Houston is 6-4 over its last 10 games, averaging 108.0 points and 47.3 rebounds while holding opponents to 106.0 points. The Rockets have been solid on both ends, particularly in forcing turnovers, as they average 8.3 steals and 6.1 blocks per game.
  • Pelicans: New Orleans has dropped nine of its last 10 games, scoring 107.3 points on 43.9% shooting while giving up a whopping 118.9 points per game to opponents. Injuries have ravaged the Pelicans’ lineup, leaving them vulnerable in both scoring and defense.

INJURY REPORT:

  • Rockets: No injuries reported.
  • Pelicans: Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Zion Williamson (hamstring) are out, while Jose Alvarado (hamstring) is also sidelined. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Karlo Matkovic, and Jordan Hawkins are listed as day-to-day.

KEY MATCHUP:
Alperen Sengun vs. the Pelicans' Interior Defense
Sengun’s ability to dominate the paint with his rebounding and passing could be a deciding factor. Without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans’ defense will be shorthanded and at risk of being overpowered by Houston’s size and depth.

PREDICTION:
The Rockets are heavy favorites for a reason. With no major injuries and a strong rebounding game, Houston should control the tempo and exploit the Pelicans’ lack of offensive firepower. Expect Houston to extend New Orleans’ losing streak in convincing fashion.

Final Score Prediction: Rockets 114, Pelicans 98


________________________________________

*ChatGPT assisted with this content.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome