Playing the ponies
Saturday is Derby Day! Well, Arkansas Derby Day. And here are some plays
May 1, 2020, 10:53 am
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Saturday was supposed to be an epic day. The Kentucky Derby followed by a Shinedown Concert at Revention Music Center. Obviously, the Rona had other plans. Still, it has a chance to be a hell of a day. The Arkansas Derby will be run today in two divisions at Oaklawn Park, and the Oaklawn Handicap will also be run. In addition, we will be hosting the last of our charity poker tournaments.
If you are looking for some horse action, we have some plays on the three big races at Oaklawn. While there are no online sites in Texas, you can use offshore sites such as mybookie.ag and betusracing.
So if you are so inclined, here are some plays for Saturday. These are done for a fast track. The weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies but there should be no rain. If so we will update this.
Disclaimer: Nobody bats .1000 on horse racing. I look for live horses at decent prices. If we hit one of these, we're probably profiting. More than one? We will be very happy. So here we go.
ARKANSAS DERBY DIVISION 1 (Race 11 on the card)
It will be very hard to get around the probable odds-on favorite, Charlatan. He is unbeaten in two very fast starts and has all the look of the next Bob Baffert superstar. The second favorite, Gouverneur Morris, might have the best shot at an upset. He was a good fourth in the Florida Derby behind Tiz the Law, perhaps the division leader. Anneau d'Or offers some value at 6-1; his last race was an unmitigated disaster but prior to that he proved he belonged at this level. Crypto Cash and Basin are big long shots that could have an impact.
It will be hard to make much off this, especially if Charlatan is the real deal. We will play some exactas, 1 with 4-8-10-11 and hope we get one of our prices home.
If you want to take a stab against him, I would consider keying the 4 with 1-8-10-11 and 1-8-10-11 with 4 in exactas, but you are probably wasting money.
OAKLAWN HANDICAP (Race 12 on the card)
This is a wide open, competitive race, but I do like a horse with decent odds: No. 4 Mr. Freeze at 6-1. While he is probably better going a mile, he has been competitive at this distance. His losses have come against some of the best in the country in Tom's D'Etat and Mucho Gusto. Would feel better if he had a race over the Oaklawn surface, but he should get a nice trip on or near the lead and I expect him to be in the mix. Beyond that, it is a crap shoot. I will be playing at least one 4-all and all-4 exacta tickets. I will also narrow it down a little and take 4 with 2-3-5-6-8-9-12 and 2-3-5-6-8-9-12 with 4.
Another massive price horse I think has a shot in here is the 8 at 20-1 morning line. He will have to come out of the clouds, but he has been very good in two Oaklawn starts, and almost every horse his trainer sends out these days runs big. I will play weighted win/place/show wagers on him. An example would be based on a $100 bankroll: $50 to show, $30 to place, $20 to win. Obviously you can do it for $10 and go $5, $3, $2, or whatever you want based on how much you are playing. I think he has a much better chance of running third than first, hence the weighted wager.
ARKANSAS DERBY DIVISION 2 (Race 13 on the card)
Nadal is unbeaten and will be a strong favorite. However, I think we can take a shot at beating him. He will face some pace pressure from Wells Bayou, and the hope is these two hook up and battle early, setting it up for a long shot closer. The horse we will use is No. 10 Farmington Road at 12-1. We will bet him much like the eight horse in the prior race, with show/place/win bets weighted with more bet to show and place.
In addition, we will wheel him top and bottom in exactas with a few other contenders. So exactas 10 with 1-3-4-5-7-11 and 1-3-4-5-7-11 with 10. We are banking on a speed duel here, which should set it up for Farmington Road. If it doesn't develop you can probably tear your virtual tickets up on the back stretch.
STARTER ALLOWANCE (Race 14 on the card)
I added this race because it is the last of the Oaklawn meet and one of my favorite races every year; a mile and three quarters starter allowance. Not overthinking things here; I like Carlos Sixes at 4-1. He has won three races and just missed in his fourth at the meet. I will bet him across the board, and wheel him top and bottom in exactas with the field (5-all, all with 5).
Good luck!
The Houston Astros wrapped up yet another series win this week, this time taking two of three from the struggling Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Despite missing several key players and a bullpen that wasn’t fully available, the Astros continued their recent run of success, pushing their record to 52-35.
Manager Joe Espada appeared to be playing the long game in the rubber match on Thursday. After Houston rallied to tie the game in the seventh inning, Espada stuck with reliever Jordan Weems instead of turning to his high-leverage arms. That decision, while frustrating to some fans hoping for the sweep, underscored the team’s cautious approach to workload management as they navigate a long season.
One bright spot continues to be rookie Cam Smith, who delivered again in the clutch with a two-run triple in the seventh inning on Thursday. Smith has been Houston’s most dependable bat with runners on base and is quickly settling into the cleanup role—a rarity for a first-year player but one he’s earned with his poise and production.
Astros cleanup hitter RBIs this season:
Cam Smith: 10 RBIs in 7 games
All others: 28 RBIs in 80 games
— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) July 3, 2025
Off the field, the biggest storyline continues to be Yordan Alvarez’s injury. After reports surfaced that the slugger had experienced a setback in his return from a fractured hand, the team clarified that the issue is inflammation, not the fracture itself. Astros general manager Dana Brown said Alvarez received injections to address the irritation and is expected to rest for now. Encouragingly, the Astros say the fracture is no longer a concern, and while there’s still no definitive timeline for his return, the overall tone from the club was optimistic.
The transparency around Alvarez’s situation is part of a larger shift. After being criticized in recent seasons for vague injury updates, the Astros have begun issuing daily availability reports. It’s a move that signals the front office is trying to regain some trust with the media and fans after a stretch of frustrating ambiguity around player health.
Now, the Astros head to Los Angeles for a marquee matchup with the defending champion Dodgers. Friday’s opener will feature Lance McCullers Jr. making just his second start since returning from the injured list. McCullers gave up eight runs in his return against the Cubs and will be under the spotlight as he looks to settle back into form. Control will be the key, as walks have long been McCullers’ Achilles’ heel.
Saturday sets the stage for one of the most anticipated pitching matchups of the season: Framber Valdez versus Shohei Ohtani. With both teams fighting for positioning in their respective divisions, this weekend in LA should serve as a measuring stick—and perhaps a postseason preview.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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