Playing the ponies
Saturday is Derby Day! Well, Arkansas Derby Day. And here are some plays
May 1, 2020, 10:53 am
Playing the ponies
Saturday was supposed to be an epic day. The Kentucky Derby followed by a Shinedown Concert at Revention Music Center. Obviously, the Rona had other plans. Still, it has a chance to be a hell of a day. The Arkansas Derby will be run today in two divisions at Oaklawn Park, and the Oaklawn Handicap will also be run. In addition, we will be hosting the last of our charity poker tournaments.
If you are looking for some horse action, we have some plays on the three big races at Oaklawn. While there are no online sites in Texas, you can use offshore sites such as mybookie.ag and betusracing.
So if you are so inclined, here are some plays for Saturday. These are done for a fast track. The weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies but there should be no rain. If so we will update this.
Disclaimer: Nobody bats .1000 on horse racing. I look for live horses at decent prices. If we hit one of these, we're probably profiting. More than one? We will be very happy. So here we go.
It will be very hard to get around the probable odds-on favorite, Charlatan. He is unbeaten in two very fast starts and has all the look of the next Bob Baffert superstar. The second favorite, Gouverneur Morris, might have the best shot at an upset. He was a good fourth in the Florida Derby behind Tiz the Law, perhaps the division leader. Anneau d'Or offers some value at 6-1; his last race was an unmitigated disaster but prior to that he proved he belonged at this level. Crypto Cash and Basin are big long shots that could have an impact.
It will be hard to make much off this, especially if Charlatan is the real deal. We will play some exactas, 1 with 4-8-10-11 and hope we get one of our prices home.
If you want to take a stab against him, I would consider keying the 4 with 1-8-10-11 and 1-8-10-11 with 4 in exactas, but you are probably wasting money.
This is a wide open, competitive race, but I do like a horse with decent odds: No. 4 Mr. Freeze at 6-1. While he is probably better going a mile, he has been competitive at this distance. His losses have come against some of the best in the country in Tom's D'Etat and Mucho Gusto. Would feel better if he had a race over the Oaklawn surface, but he should get a nice trip on or near the lead and I expect him to be in the mix. Beyond that, it is a crap shoot. I will be playing at least one 4-all and all-4 exacta tickets. I will also narrow it down a little and take 4 with 2-3-5-6-8-9-12 and 2-3-5-6-8-9-12 with 4.
Another massive price horse I think has a shot in here is the 8 at 20-1 morning line. He will have to come out of the clouds, but he has been very good in two Oaklawn starts, and almost every horse his trainer sends out these days runs big. I will play weighted win/place/show wagers on him. An example would be based on a $100 bankroll: $50 to show, $30 to place, $20 to win. Obviously you can do it for $10 and go $5, $3, $2, or whatever you want based on how much you are playing. I think he has a much better chance of running third than first, hence the weighted wager.
Nadal is unbeaten and will be a strong favorite. However, I think we can take a shot at beating him. He will face some pace pressure from Wells Bayou, and the hope is these two hook up and battle early, setting it up for a long shot closer. The horse we will use is No. 10 Farmington Road at 12-1. We will bet him much like the eight horse in the prior race, with show/place/win bets weighted with more bet to show and place.
In addition, we will wheel him top and bottom in exactas with a few other contenders. So exactas 10 with 1-3-4-5-7-11 and 1-3-4-5-7-11 with 10. We are banking on a speed duel here, which should set it up for Farmington Road. If it doesn't develop you can probably tear your virtual tickets up on the back stretch.
I added this race because it is the last of the Oaklawn meet and one of my favorite races every year; a mile and three quarters starter allowance. Not overthinking things here; I like Carlos Sixes at 4-1. He has won three races and just missed in his fourth at the meet. I will bet him across the board, and wheel him top and bottom in exactas with the field (5-all, all with 5).
Good luck!
CJ Stroud put a lot of Texans fans at ease when he showed up to mandatory minicamp on Tuesday and participated in throwing drills. Many were concerned that Stroud might have received surgery in the offseason, and that was keeping him from throwing at voluntary OTAs last week. But Stroud put that narrative to bed, denying any offseason surgery.
Stroud told the media that he's been working on getting his body right this offseason, focusing on, among other things, lowering his body fat, improving his hip flexibility, and gaining speed.
CJ implied that the extra training this offseason might have been a factor in the soreness that kept him from throwing last week, but that should be expected. Pushing your body can sometimes lead to soreness, but it's not anything to be worried about.
He also said he had been throwing prior to minicamp on Tuesday, but this is the first time the media has been around to witness it.
Thoughts on the new system
CJ had positive things to say about the Texans' new OC Nick Caley. He pointed out that he cares more about the "person" than the system. He likes the energy from his new OC, even saying Caley calls him frequently, but doesn't always answer because Caley is “always yelling.”
Stroud also confirmed that the new offense allows him to have more control at the line of scrimmage, something we heard he was wanting last season.
Caley and CJ have watched old videos from 2003 and 2004 of Tom Brady working with Josh McDaniels. They believe this will help Stroud learn how to take “ownership” of the protections.
You can watch the full interview in the video below.
So what else happened at mandatory minicamp?
Newly signed running back Nick Chubb participated in drills. Head coach DeMeco Ryans credited GM Nick Caserio with signing the four-time Pro Bowler.
Nick Chubb takes the handoff in first #Texans practice @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/P4X9NGXB4B
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) June 10, 2025
How did the receivers look?
The big play of the day came from 2nd round receiver Jayden Higgins, who caught this pass from Stroud against Kamari Lassister. This looks like a connection the Texans will count on for years to come.
🎯🎯🎯 pic.twitter.com/4wLhMtduBd
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) June 10, 2025
3rd rounder Jaylin Noel was in attendance but didn't participate.
Nico Collins and Stroud appear to be in midseason form.
Nico Collins showin’ ‘em how it’s done. #MiniCamp #Texans pic.twitter.com/Ir4qrGsL15
— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) June 10, 2025
Anything new with the offensive line?
Not really. The Texans lineup up from left to right with Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson, Jake Andrews, Tytus Howard, and Blake Fisher. Later on, rookie Aireontae Ersery got some work in at left tackle.
Current #Texans O-Line combination protecting Stroud: LT Airenontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews, RG Tytus Howard, RT Blake Fisher.
— Jonathan M Alexander (@jonmalexander) June 10, 2025
The Texans will wrap up minicamp Wednesday, and we'll keep you in the loop with any further developments.