NCAA REWIND
Saturday NCAA football recap: The Stars at Night are dim and dark for Texas teams in Week 6
Oct 13, 2019, 11:54 am
Joe Burrow is still amazing, Houston is a disorganized mess and Bad Baylor is undefeated. Here's a look at what happened in the Lone Star State and with LSU:
Cincinnati 38, Houston 23
What a disorganized (bleep) show this game was for Houston. Cincinnati took an early lead and Perry Young's two-yard pick-six sealed a 38-23 road win over Houston on Saturday. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen was playing an odd game of quarterback musical chairs in which he waited until a QB got going before replacing them with someone else. Clayton Tune, Bryson Smith and Logan Holgorsen all got playing time in Houston's quarterback audition on Saturday. "Came up short," Holgorsen said. "We had a chance to win in the fourth quarter. A couple of bad calls I thought prevented us from being able to get the ball back and go score. It is what it is, you have to deal with it." Sure, there were a few questionable calls, but teams overcome bad calls all the time. What are we going to do about your brutally disorganized game management? The Cougars committed five turnovers at home and Tune threw three interceptions after not practicing for two weeks, which is particularly interesting considering Holgorsen's incessant preaching about not playing if you don't practice. Tune finished 9-of-27 for 184 yards and two touchdowns. The Cougars are on the road against UConn on Oct. 19.
Oklahoma 34, Texas 27
Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts zipped through the Texas defense, overcoming early mistakes to lead the sixth-ranked Sooners to a 34-27 victory over the Longhorns in the Red River Showdown on Saturday. "We knew how good they were," Texas coach Tom Herman said. "We knew that their defense had improved, and we certainly saw the things that they were doing offensively." Let's face it: the Longhorns were outmatched. Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger was sacked nine times, the Sooners never trailed their Red River Rivals and the No. 11 Longhorns gave up 511 yards. Hurts found receiver CeeDee Lamb for three touchdown passes on 10 receptions for 171 yards. Hurts threw for 235 yards and added 131 more rushing, including a 3-yard touchdown run for a 34-20 lead in the fourth quarter. Despite being sacked nine times, Ehlinger did not shy away from his run game, scoring twice on the ground. "They did a really good job of swarming the football," Ehlinger said. "Obviously they recruit extremely well and have tremendously talented players. I feel like they just let them go make plays." Ehlinger finished 26-of-38 for 210 yards. Texas should not drop far after a competitive road showing against a top-10 opponent. The Longhorns face Kansas at home next Saturday.
Alabama 47, Texas A&M 28
Whew. This one was hard to watch. Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is beyond good, he's more of an "inexorable force of nature." Tagovailoa threw four touchdowns and the No. 1 Crimson Tide rolled over Texas A&M 47-28 on Saturday. Alabama trailed briefly after A&M scored a touchdown on its first possession. Tagovailoa took over from there, leading four consecutive scoring drives, including three touchdown passes that came on third down. Tagovailoa spread the scoring around, hitting different receivers for each of his touchdown passes. "I feel I have a relationship with everyone, a good connection with everyone," Tagovailoa said. Aggie quarterback Kellen Mond threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score. Texas A&M has lost its second game to a top-ranked opponent this season after falling to then-No.1 Clemson Sept. 7. "We have to push through it. Against good people, you can't almost get there. You got to be all the way, executing on every play," Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher said. The Aggies (3-3, 1-2) will likely fall out of the rankings and it could be a while before they return. Texas A&M travels to Mississippi on Oct. 19.
LSU 42, Florida 28
About how many more times are you guys going to let me get away with fangirling over LSU quarterback Joe Burrow? After the Tigers fell behind in the second half, Burrow threw for 293 yards and three unanswered touchdowns leading LSU to a dramatic 42-28 victory over No. 7 Florida on Saturday night. LSU totaled 511 yards against a Florida defense that leads the nation in interceptions and leads the SEC in sacks, without giving up a sack or committing a turnover. According to LSU coach Ed Orgeron, holding Florida's defense without a sack was "the biggest stat of the night." Burrow went 21-of-24, meaning he had the same number of touchdown passes as incompletions. "Once we protect the quarterback, I feel confident in us moving the football," Orgeron said. While LSU's offense was undeniably prolific against the best defense it's faced this season, the Tigers' defense left much to be desired for the third time against a major conference opponent. Expect LSU to move into the top four after No. 3 Georgia lost to South Carolina. The Tigers are on the road against Mississippi next week.
Baylor 33, Texas Tech 30
Somehow, Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer managed to keep the Big 12's longest winning streak alive and get the Bears a victory in their first game as a ranked team under coach Matt Rhule. Baylor running back JaMycal Hasty ran for the winning score in the second overtime, lifting the Bears to a 33-30 win over Texas Tech on Saturday. Brewer was 24-of-37 passing for 352 yards but threw his first three interceptions of the season. What his passing game lacked, Brewer made up for with his feet, scoring three touchdowns on the ground. "I just feel like that's when the quarterback has to be at his best, when the game's on the line," Brewer said. "I made my handful of mistakes earlier in the game. But as a quarterback you've just got to let it go and realize you've got a chance to win the game." Both teams gained more than 500 yards and three turnovers. Texas Tech quarterback Jett Duffey finished 31-of-42 passing for 362 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Baylor plays at Oklahoma State and Texas Tech faces Iowa State at home next Saturday.
UL Monroe 24, Texas State 14
Josh Johnson ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries to help UL Monroe beat Texas State 24-14 on Thursday night. Texas State quarterback Tyler Vitt was intercepted late in the fourth quarter and the Warhawks ran out the clock to secure the win. The Bobcats are on the road against Arkansas State next Saturday.
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The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.
The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.
There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.
College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.
“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”
And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.
KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.
In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.
Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.
That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.
“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”
Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.
Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).
Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.
Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.
“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”
Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.
Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.
The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.
This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.
“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”