TIME FOR A CHANGE?
Should it be the end for Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith?
Dec 13, 2017, 10:43 am
RIck Smith and Bill O'Brien's jobs should be in jeopardy. Bob Levey/Getty Images
Originally appeard on Houstonsportsandstuff.com
A lot of assertions have been made about why the Texans are in such a state of disarray this year but I believe the biggest is the leadership at the top. That’s right, I believe Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith are to blame. I know that gets said every year the Texans fail to live up to their potential but this year has to be the one that forces a shake up. And I believe this time it has less to do with the play on the field and more to do with the players on the field doing it.
The Texans have a roster full of superstar talent at nearly every impact position and have had injuries to the majority of them. But in spite of those injuries, several of their nine losses have been competitive games at a point that the Texans could have turned it to their favor. They didn’t and not always for the same reason. Some of those loses were the result of bad play calling and game management by the head coach, and some were the result of having players on the field that shouldn’t have been there.
This will be the first losing season for O’Brien in his four years as head coach. Competitive games in the absence of key players is a big argument for keeping him around, but it’s the only reason. The talent drop off from the injured starters is a reflection of his eye for talent and his play calling was only really good when Deshaun Watson was the quarterback.
But not all of this is Bill O’Brien’s fault. Rick Smith has done extremely well drafting talent in the first round of the draft. Stars like DeAndre Hopkins, J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Jadeveon Clowney, and Deshaun Watson make a healthy Texans team a serious threat. He also addded other talented players like Benardrick McKinney, Nick Martin, Lamar Miller, and Zach Cunningham. But identifying areas of need and hashing out a plan to fill them has been his biggest weakness every offseason and this should be the year that owner Bob McNair says it’s over.
The result of this season should be the reason to say enough is enough. Yes, Bill O’Brien has coached the Texans into position to win almost every week, but most of the nine losses can be placed on his shoulders. When he put Deshaun Watson in as the starter in Week 2 it was to correct his mistake in the Week 1 loss. Against the Patriots in Week 3 he failed to call a timeout in the final seconds that might have given them a chance to tie the game. After Watson’s injury before Week 9 and the subsequent loss to the Colts; his continued reliance on Tom Savage to play quarterback has been the biggest coaching error. Game management is a big part of his job and he failed to do it. Talent evaluation is another and Savage should have been replaced as soon as possible.
In the 2017 offseason the Texans had obvious need on the offensive line but didn’t sign any legitimate free agents or use high draft picks to bolster the roster. In addition; an aging secondary wasn’t given any help. Instead, A.J. Bouye was allowed to walk after his breakout 2016 campaign and the Texans were left with only unproven and injury prone players to replace him. Special teams has always been a weakness but in the middle of the draft where those contributors are found, the Texans have more misses than hits.
It’s hard to say if any team could win a lot of games with this many injuries, but if they were non-competitive it would make more sense. You can watch just about every loss and find at least one specific play that cost the Texans a chance to win. I know some of this may reinforce your belief that the current regime should keep their jobs, but I think it’s the reason they should go.
If the offensive line were better, maybe some of those strip sacks don’t happen and the running game is better when they need it to be. If they had addressed the need in the secondary maybe they wouldn’t be 26th in passing yards allowed. If Tom Savage hadn’t been on the field for the six games since Watson’s injury he wouldn’t have had the chance to turn the ball over 14 times.
But this isn’t just a one season assessment. Do you remember the big contracts given to Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Brock Osweiler? Remember when they could have drafted Derek Carr but chose Xavier Su’a-Filo? Remember when the Patriots beat the Texans 27-0 with a third string quarterback? Or maybe that 30-0 home playoff loss to Kansas City? There has been a long list of moments throughout the tenures of Rick Smith and Bill O’Brien that have left the team at a disadvantage.
While I don’t think they are the worst at their jobs, I wonder how much longer should they be rewarded for mediocrity. Every year the roster has big holes and every year they lose at least a couple of games they could have won with better decisions from the sideline. This year’s losing record brought about by poor talent acquisition and poor roster management could give way to a new GM and head coach without too many questions asked.
And I don’t really buy the “Who is available that is better?” or “You could hire someone worse” arguments. The superstars on this roster have a lot of potential and there shouldn’t be a problem attracting talented people to be the new GM and head coach. But this is just one man’s opinion.
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How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
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Major League Baseball’s regular season is 162 games long. You can think of 18 games as the first inning of the season, 18 times nine equaling 162. While the Astros 8-10 record is not good, it’s far from disastrous. Think of it as them being behind 1-0 after the first inning. It is pretty remarkable that they have yet to win consecutive games. Even during last year’s 7-19 stink bomb of a start the Astros twice managed to win two in a row.
The Astros’ offensive woes are plentiful. Oddly enough as impotent as they’ve been, the Astros have yet to be shutout. But in half their games they have scored exactly one or two runs. Basically, most of them stink thus far. Exemptions go to Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, but it’s not like either of them has been outstanding. It’s still early enough that one big series can dramatically alter the numbers, but the Astros badly need Yordan Alvarez to pick up his production. Yordan enters the weekend batting just .224 with a .695 OPS and just four extra base hits. Yainer rhymes with minor. As in minor leagues, where Diaz belongs at his current level of performance. That is not saying Diaz should be sent down, just that any random AAA catcher called up couldn’t have done much worse to this point. Diaz isn’t hitting Altuve’s weight, a woeful .130 with seven hits in 57 at bats. Diaz simply remains too undisciplined at the plate swinging at too many balls. He’s drawn three walks. And now to Christian Walker, who thus far has delivered return on investment for his three year 60 million dollar contract about as strong as the stock market’s performance in Tariff Time. Walker’s .154 batting average and .482 OPS are very Astro Jose Abreu-like. Walker’s23 strikeouts in 65 at bats jump off the page. He has often looked befuddled in the batter's box. Walker is definitely pressing and frustrated, wanting to perform better for his new team. Jeremy Pena goes into the weekend batting .215 and has one hit in 13 at bats with runners in scoring position. Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick all have weak stat lines, with little reason to expect quality offensive output from any of them. Cam Smith is at .200 with a yucky .591 OPS but he’s obviously a young stud work in progress thrown into the deep end of the pool.
All batting orders are top-heavy, the Astros’ on paper more so than many. As I set forth on one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week, the first inning should be a team’s best offensive inning. It’s the only frame in which a team gets to dictate who comes up from the start with the batters lined up just as the manager slots them. Add to that, the first inning is a good time to get to a starting pitcher before he settles in. The Astros have scored a pitiful three first inning runs in 18 games, and in two of the games they pushed one across in the first, it turned out to be the only Astro run of the game. Improvement needs to come internally from the big league roster. It’s not as if the Astros have a meaningful prospect at AAA Sugar Land who looks ready to help. Entering play Thursday the Space Cowboys’ team average was .186. Second base hopeful Brice Matthews is nowhere close, batting .180 and striking out left and right. Outfielder Jacob Melton opened three for 17 following the back injury-delayed start to his season.
As exasperating and boring as the offense has been for so many, grading needs to occur on a curve. So, while the Astros’ team batting average is a joke at .216, know that at close of business Wednesday the entire American League was batting just .232. The American League West-leading Texas Rangers scored eight fewer runs over their first 18 games than did the Astros, though that is skewed by the Astros’ one 14-run outburst against the Angels.
Familiar faces return
This weekend the Astros play host to the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. The Friars are off to a fabulous start at 15-4. The Padres being here creates a mini reunion as both Martin Maldonado and Yuli Gurriel are on their roster. In a telling fact, Maldonado would have the third-highest batting average on the Astros if on the team with his current numbers. Maldonado is hitting .250 with seven hits in 28 at bats. The last season he finished above .200 was 2020. The only season in his career Maldonado topped .234 was his rookie season with a .266 mark in 2012.
Gurriel was last good in 2021 when he won the American League batting title at .319. He fell off a cliff from there, though perked up to have a fine postseason in the Astros’ 2022 run to World Series title number two. “La Pina” is batting .115 with just three hits in 26 at bats. Gurriel may be released soon, and approaching his 41st birthday June 9, that would probably be the end of the line. Short-timer Astro Jason Heyward is also on the Padres, and batting .190.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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