JOHN GRANATO
Soon-to-be free agent Eovaldi could be a great fit for the Astros
Oct 24, 2018, 7:20 am
Nathan Eovaldi has similar numbers to Charlie Morton when Morton became an Astro. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images
ESPN baseball expert Buster Olney was on our show Tuesday morning and dropped a bomb on us. He said that Nathan Eovaldi would be a perfect fit for the Astros. He’ll cost somewhere in the $80 million range over 4 or 5 years.
Rarely does information like that come out of nowhere.
While Olney can’t reveal it, it’s a good bet that he called or ran into Eovaldi’s agent during the playoffs and he planted that bug in Olney’s ear. It’s what agents do. Olney can’t reveal it because the agent wouldn’t want the Red Sox to know he’s out there shopping Eovaldi while he should be thinking about winning a World Series.
This week leading up to the series Eovaldi was asked if his people had spoken to the Red Sox about resigning with the team. He said there had been no such talks. That will probably change as soon as the series is over.
He has been impressive since he got to Boston. He has a 3.33 ERA with 48 strikeouts and just 12 walks. He also looked great here in Houston throwing 7⅓, giving up just 2 runs, striking out 5 and walking 2 while winning a pivotal Game 3.
That he got that start over Rick Porcello, who won a Cy Young for the Sox just a couple of years ago tells you what Alex Cora must think of him. Eovaldi hasn’t been with the Sox for three months.
But over his career he hasn’t been all that impressive. He is nine games under .500 with a slightly better than average ERA of 4.16. He’s got a live fastball but his strikeouts to walks is just under 2½ to 1. Not all that dominating for a guy who can hit 100 on the gun.
He is trending well though and picking up valuable postseason experience plus guys who come to the Astros tend to get better under the tutelage of pitching coach Brent Strom. Case in point Charlie Morton. Check out this comparison of Morton when he signed here 2 years ago and Eovaldi today.
Eovaldi Morton (2 yrs ago)
Age 28 32
Games 156 162
W-L 44-53 46-71
ERA 4.16 4.54
Innings 850 893
Strikeouts 640 630
Hits 887 950
Walks 259 337
WHIP 1.348 1.440
HR 80 71
Pretty close numbers but by almost every measure Eovaldi is a little bit better that CFM was when the Astros signed him and by every measure CFM is better today than he was then. His record, ERA, and K’s to W’s are all better because of Brent Strom. You’d have to think that Eovaldi would be better here. Everyone else has been. Why wouldn’t he be?
Sure would be nice to have a younger, harder throwing Charlie Morton in the rotation next year. We also know that the big stage isn’t too big for him. We saw that with our own eyes.
The question is do you spend that kind of money on a guy who still has something to prove or hope that you can develop your own guys on the cheap? Josh James looks like he’s the real deal. He can hump it up at over 100 as well. He gave up some crucial runs but it was just his first go around and you’ve got him locked up for a couple of years for next to nothing.
Forrest Whitley hasn’t even started his major league clock yet. He’s said to be throwing well and could be in the mix next spring. Lance McCullers Jr. is back next year as is Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. If you can sign CFM for a couple more years at a reasonable price that would be tough to pass up.
Of course the big decision is what to do about Dallas Keuchel. He will get some life changing offers. Best bet is that he’s pitching somewhere else next year. There are too many guys to pay here to tie up big money longterm on him.
With just one more year of Verlander, Eovaldi might be the right fit. When JV leaves Gerrit Cole becomes your ace. Eovaldi’s the No. 3 starter on a World Series team right now. He could certainly move up to a No. 2 with Brent Strom’s help. Whitley, James and LMJ all have at least number 2 stuff as well.
If Buster Olney wasn’t just throwing sand into the wind and maybe has some insight into this, it sounds pretty exciting to me. If there’s a bidding war with another team you’d think Eovaldi would sign here if the money’s close. He’s from Alvin. He’ll never be the pride of Alvin like No. 34 but he’ll move closer to the legendary Nolan Ryan in the hearts of everyone around here if he helps us all put on another one of those fancy rings.
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Capsules of American League West teams, listed in order of finish last year:
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Houston Astros
2024: 88-73, first place, lost to Detroit in Wild Card Series.
Manager: Joe Espada (second season).
Opening Day: March 27 vs. New York Mets.
He’s Here: 1B Christian Walker, 3B Isaac Paredes, INF Luis Guillorme, RHP Hayden Wesneski.
He’s Outta Here: 3B Alex Bregman, RF Kyle Tucker, RHP Ryan Pressly.
Top Hitters: DH Yordan Alvarez (.308, 35 HRs, 86 RBIs, .959 OPS), C Yainer Diaz (.299, 16, 84, 29 2Bs), LF Jose Altuve (.295, 20, 65, 31 2Bs, 94 runs), 1B Christian Walker (.251, 26, 84, .803 OPS with Arizona), SS Jeremy Pena (.266, 15, 70, 28 2Bs).
Projected Rotation: LH Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA), RH Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49), RH Ronel Blanco (13-6, 2.80), RH Spencer Arrighetti (7-13, 4.53), RH Hayden Wesneski (3-6, 3.86).
Key Relievers: LH Josh Hader (8-8, 3.80 ERA, 34 saves), RH Bryan Abreu (3-3, 3.10, 1 save), RH Tayler Scott (7-3, 2.23), LH Bennett Sousa (0-0, 4.00 in 2023), RH Kaleb Ort (1-1, 2.55, 1 save).
Outlook: The Astros should contend for a fifth straight AL West title despite trading outfielder Tucker and losing longtime third baseman Bregman in free agency. They made a major upgrade at first base with the addition of Walker after failing to find consistency there last season after the release of José Abreu. It will be interesting to see how Paredes fares in replacing Bregman and how Altuve’s move to left field will go after the veteran superstar played second base exclusively for his first 14 seasons. Valdez returns to lead a rotation that will start the season with several young arms but that could get a boost in the summer with the expected returns of Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia after both players had Tommy John surgery last year. General manager Dana Brown is confident that this team can have a bounce-back year and make another deep playoff run after losing to Detroit in the Wild Card round last season.
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Seattle Mariners
2024: 85-77, second place.
Manager: Dan Wilson (first full season).
Opening Day: March 27 vs. Athletics.
He’s Here: INF Donovan Solano, INF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni.
He’s Outta Here: RHP Yimi García, 3B Josh Rojas, 3B Luis Urías, 1B Justin Turner.
Top Hitters: CF Julio Rodríguez (.273, 20 HRs, 68 RBIs, .734 OPS, all career lows), C Cal Raleigh (.220, career-high 34, career-high 100). SS J.P. Crawford (career-low .202, 9, 37 in 105 games), DH Mitch Garver (.172, 15, 51), 2B Jorge Polanco (.212, 16, 45).
Projected Rotation: RH Luis Castillo (11-12, 3.64 ERA, 175 Ks in 175 1/3 IP), RH Logan Gilbert (9-12, 3.23, 220 Ks in major league-high 208 2/3 IP, major league-best 0.887 WHIP), RH Bryce Miller (12-8, 2.94), RH Bryan Woo (9-3, 2.89 in 22 starts), RH Emerson Hancock (4-4, 4.75 in 12 starts).
Key Relievers: RH Andrés Muñoz (3-7, 2.12 ERA, 22/27 saves, 77 Ks in 59 1/3 IP), RH Trent Thornton (4-3, 3.61), RH Colin Snider (3-4, 1.94), RH Troy Taylor (0-0, 3.72), LH Taylor Saucedo (2-0, 3.49, 3 saves).
Outlook: Seattle has finished with winning records in four straight seasons for the first time but has made the playoffs just once in that span, in 2022, when it was swept by Houston in the Division Series. The Mariners went 21-13 last year after Wilson replaced Scott Servais as manager on Aug. 22. The manager swap is likely the biggest change heading into opening day from 2024. Seattle’s most notable offseason additions included signing Solano and acquiring Mastrobuoni from the Chicago Cubs. The Mariners hope for a rebound by Rodríguez, who had just four homers and 21 RBIs through June. The lack of offense was a team-wide problem: Seattle hit .224, 29th among the 30 teams, ahead only the 121-loss Chicago White Sox. Right-hander George Kirby (13-10, 3.35, 172 Ks, 19 walks, MLB-low 1.084 walks per 9 innings) is likely to open the season on the injured list because of right shoulder inflammation, leading to an opening for Hancock to join the rotation.
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Texas Rangers
2024: 78-84, third place.
Manager: Bruce Bochy (third season).
Opening Day: March 27 vs. Boston.
Here’s Here: 1B Jake Burger, C Kyle Higashioka, RHP Chris Martin, LHP Hoby Milner, DH Joc Pederson, RHP Jacob Webb.
He’s Outta Here: C Carson Kelly, OF Travis Jankowski, LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP José Leclerc, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kirby Yates.
Top Hitters: SS Corey Seager (.278, 30 HRs, 74 RBIs, .864 OPS), RF Adolis García (.224, 25, 85, 177 Ks), 2B Marcus Semien (.237, 23, 74), 1B Jake Burger (.250, 29, 76 with Marlins), DH Joc Pederson (.275, 23, 64 with Diamondbacks), OF Wyatt Langford (.253, 16, 74, 19 SBs).
Projected Rotation: RH Nathan Eovaldi (12-8, 3.80 ERA, 166 Ks in 170 2/3 IP), RH Jon Gray (5-6, 4.47), LH Cody Bradford (6-3, 3.54), RH Jacob deGrom (0-0, 1.69 in three starts), RH Tyler Mahle (0-1, 4.97).
Key Relievers: RH Chris Martin (3-1, 3.45 ERA, 2 saves in 45 appearances with Boston), RH Luke Jackson (4-3, 5.09 in 52 games with Giants and Braves), RH Jacob Webb (2-5, 3.02 in 60 appearances for Orioles), LH Hoby Milner (5-1, 4.73 in 61 appearances for Brewers), LH Robert Garcia (3-6, 4.22 in 72 appearances for Nationals), RH Dane Dunning (5-7, 5.31 in 26 games, 15 starts).
Outlook: The starting rotation is in good shape with Eovaldi re-signed, and two-time Cy Young Award winner deGrom and Mahle both making late-season debuts last year after recovering from elbow surgery. There is no defined closer after Yates left in free agency and with Josh Sborz rehabbing from shoulder surgery, but Martin joins his hometown team for a prominent role at the back end of a restructured bullpen. Burger and Pederson add pop to an offense that last year hit 57 fewer homers and scored one run less per game than when winning the franchise's first World Series title with Bochy in 2023. These Rangers may not be far off from at least having a shot at repeating a unique pattern for Bochy, who won three World Series crowns with San Francisco from 2010-14. After each of those first two titles, the Giants missed the playoffs the following year before coming back to win another one. Texas still has Semien, Seager and Jung on the infield. García seeks a bounce-back season in the outfield, likely joined out there by young standouts Langford and Evan Carter.
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Athletics
2024: 69-93, fourth place.
Manager: Mark Kotsay (fourth season).
Opening Day: March 27 at Seattle.
He’s Here: RHP Luis Severino, 3B Gio Urshela, LHP Jeffrey Springs, RH Jose Leclerc, INF Luis Urias, LHP Jacob Lopez.
He’s Outta Here: RHP Ross Stripling, 3B Abraham Toro, LHP Alex Wood, LHP Scott Alexander, RHP Austin Adams, OF Daz Cameron, 3B J.D. Davis, SS Nick Allen, 1B Ryan Noda.
Top Hitters: DH Brent Rooker (.293, 39 HRs, 112 RBI, .927 OPS), C Shea Langeliers (.224, 29, 80, .739 OPS), OF Lawrence Butler (.262, 22, 57, .807 OPS), OF JJ Bleday (.243, 20, 60, .762 OPS), 2B Zack Gelof (.211, 17, 49, 25 SBs).
Projected Rotation: RH Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA with the New York Mets), LH JP Sears (11-13, 4.38), LH Jeffrey Springs (2-2, 3.27 with Tampa Bay), RH Osvaldo Bido (5-3, 3.41), RH Joey Estes (7-9, 5.01) OR RH Mitch Spence (8-10, 4.58).
Key Relievers: RH Mason Miller (2-2, 2.49, 28/31 saves, 14.4 Ks/9 IP), RH Jose Leclerc (6-5, 4.32, 1 save with Texas), LH T.J. McFarland (2-4, 3.81), RH Tyler Ferguson (4-2, 3.68, 2 saves).
Outlook: The A’s begin a temporary stay in the Sacramento area this season. They will play at least the next three seasons at a Triple-A stadium as they wait for their new home to be built in Las Vegas. Their final season in Oakland was emotional and showed some signs of progress with a 19-win improvement. The A’s increased their spending this offseason as they needed a higher payroll in order to get a full share in revenue sharing. Severino, Butler and Rooker all got deals worth at least $60 million after the franchise had handed out one deal that rich ever before this season. They should be competitive but still likely lack the depth of talent to compete for the postseason.
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Los Angeles Angels
2024: 63-99, fifth place.
Manager: Ron Washington (second season).
Opening day: March 27 at Chicago White Sox.
He’s Here: LHP Yusei Kikuchi, DH Jorge Soler, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Kyle Hendricks, C Travis d’Arnaud, 3B Yoán Moncada, INF Kevin Newman, SS Tim Anderson.
He’s Outta Here: 2B Brandon Drury, C Matt Thaiss, RHP Griffin Canning, LHP Patrick Sandoval, RHP Carson Fulmer, RHP Hunter Strickland, LHP Matt Moore.
Top Hitters: RF Mike Trout (.220, 10 HRs, 14 RBIs in 29 games), OF Taylor Ward (.246, 25, 75, .748 OPS), C Logan O’Hoppe (.244, 20, 56), SS Zach Neto (.249, 23 , 77, .761 OPS, 5.1 WAR), DH Jorge Soler (.241, 21, 64 with Giants and Braves).
Projected Rotation: LH Yusei Kikuchi (9-10, 4.05 ERA, 206 Ks with Blue Jays and Astros), LH Tyler Anderson (10-15, 3.81, 1.29 WHIP, 3.1 WAR), RH Jose Soriano (6-7, 3.42, 97 Ks in 113 innings), LH Reid Detmers (4-9, 6.70, spent three months at Triple-A Salt Lake), RH Kyle Hendricks (4-12, 5.92 for Cubs).
Key Relievers: RH Kenley Jansen (4-2, 3.29, 27/31 saves with Red Sox), RH Ben Joyce (2-0, 2.08, 33 Ks in 34 2/3 innings), RH Ryan Zeferjahn (0-0, 2.12, 18 Ks in 17 innings), RH Chase Silseth (0-1, 6.75 in two appearances).
Outlook: The Angels finished 2024 at rock bottom, losing a club-record 99 games and extending the majors’ longest streaks to nine consecutive losing seasons and 10 straight non-playoff seasons. The sole sign for optimism was solid play from youngsters O’Hoppe, Neto, Soriano, Joyce and Nolan Schanuel. They’re all back to keep building, although Neto will start on the injured list after right shoulder surgery. Trout is healthy again after four consecutive injury-plagued seasons, and the three-time AL MVP is moving from center to right field to preserve his health. Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell should be the primary center fielders. Anthony Rendon is already guaranteed to miss extended playing time for the fourth straight season after the $245 million third baseman announced he needs hip surgery. The rotation is headlined by newcomer Kikuchi, and longtime Dodgers closer Jansen could form a potent late-game combination with the fireballing Joyce.