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State of the Rockets: Robert Covington's IQ, Russell Westbrook shooting threes again, and more
Feb 24, 2020, 5:31 am
Rockets' advanced stats (per cleaningtheglass.com)
As of last week:
Offensive RTG: 113.5 (5th)
Defensive RTG: 110.1 (15th)
Net RTG: +3.4 (10th)
As of this week:
Offensive RTG: 114.0 (3rd)
Defensive RTG: 110.0 (15th)
Net RTG: +4.0 (7th)
Biggest developments:
1. Rockets sign DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Green on the buyout market
Compared to the other players that were out there (namely Marvin Williams and Markieff Morris), DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Green are probably on the middle end of the spectrum of buyout players. At this point, it's unclear if either of these players will secure a rotation spot come playoff time. One would think Carroll would be the obvious candidate for a spot considering he's probably been the better NBA player for his career, but it seems the Rockets really want to give Green a serious look at backup center. Green's athleticism makes him an obvious lob threat, but inconsistent offensive play and defensive liabilities have plagued him throughout his career.
I suppose if he were to become a productive player in the NBA, it would be at center. You don't have to be a knockdown shooter and if you're going to switch everything like the Rockets, you don't have to be a great rim protector. Still, selling yourself on Jeff Green is something you should do at your own risk. He is on a ten-day contract so there's no risk in Houston getting a look at him for a few games to see if they like the fit.
It will be interesting to see if Carroll can crack what has turned out to be a crowded wing rotation. Between Harden, Covington, Gordon, House, and, McLemore, there's just not a lot of minutes to go around. It's possible Carroll is on the roster to be break-in-case-of-emergency kind of guy considering injuries are unpredictable and the Rockets may need veterans to help fill a role in a pinch.
2. Holy crap, Robert Covington is good
There was never really a question whether Robert Covington would provide value to Houston when they traded for him at the deadline. The question was always whether or not that value would be worth moving on from Clint Capela and Houston's 2020 first round pick. So far, he's been brilliant.
Houston Rockets without Robert Covington:
Offensive RTG: 105.7
Defensive RTG: 122.3
Net RTG: -16.5
Houston Rockets with Robert Covington:
Offensive RTG: 118.2
Defensive RTG: 102.5
Net RTG: +15.7
Defensively, he's incredibly intelligent and it kind of feels like he's been in a box until he got to Houston. What I mean by that is the teams that had Covington played him primarily at small forward and didn't switch nearly as much as the Rockets like to. Don't get me wrong, this is a perfectly fine role for Covington as he's a very good on-ball defender, but you're blanketing one of his greatest strengths. Covington's ability to be a weak-side shot blocker on big men is an asset that's always been there, but it's highlighted with Houston because of the positions they put him in.
It was tempting to just post one of the three blocks he had on Rudy Gobert on Saturday, but I felt the content was too graphic to post. I have a responsibility to my readers, so I had to make an executive decision. What Covington did to Gobert on Saturday night was just bullying. There's no other way to describe it.
There's also his offense, which, while understated, is still an asset. Covington's three-point shooting stroke is so natural and effortless, it's kind of insulting that he wasn't taking over seven threes a game until he returned to the Rockets. His percentage may be around league average (35.8%), but his willingness to any and all open looks is a something Houston was only getting previously with Ben McLemore.
It's completely ridiculous that Covington took and made this shot considering how low he caught it and how close the defender was already.
3. Russell Westbrook is shooting threes again
Does anybody remember that five game stretch where Russell Westbrook only attempted two three-pointers and it seemed like he was going to stop shooting them? Well, there's a possibility that people may have jumped the gun there. Over his last six games, Westbrook has attempted 16 three-pointers, almost three times more than the amount he took in the six games prior to this stretch. Now, 16 three-pointers over six games isn't a lot (2.7 per game), but it's possible that he's starting to regain confidence in that shot and will begin taking them at high volume again. He took four against the Jazz, the most he's taken since February 2nd.
There's not a large enough sample size to suggest that Westbrook is just going to start chucking three-pointers again, but it's definitely something to monitor. The Rockets seem to be much more effective when Westbrook is driving in open space and opting for mid-range jumpers as opposed to the threes. He's also become a once-in-a-while lob threat for James Harden when defenders sag off of him in the corners.
Week of games in review:
Going into the All-Star break, the biggest question for the Rockets was whether or not they'd be able to grab a top seed in the West by making a strong run to close the season. Houston has developed a reputation for closing seasons out much better than how they started them. Last season, the Rockets went 21-7 in their last 28 games with the second best Net Rating in the NBA (+10.4) and were able to grab the 4th seed after being as low as 14th during the season.
Rockets since the All-Star break: Offensive RTG: 126.2 Defensive RTG: 107.0 Net RTG: +19.3 https://t.co/8wgQY9qjpl— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1582435506.0
If they're going to make a run, this week was about as strong a start as you're going to get. The Golden State win was dominant buzzer to buzzer, which is something to the Rockets have struggled to do all season - bludgeon bad teams. They've beat bad teams, but a true sign of a title contender is having the ability to make it a no-contest by the fourth quarter, which this was. The Utah win was impressive in that it adds to the list of very good teams Houston has been able to beat since they went to micro-ball (Los Angeles, Boston, Utah, etc...). This win also hammered home what we've kind of known for years: Rudy Gobert and the Jazz still don't have any answer against the Rockets' offense in open space, making them close to non-threat to Houston in a competitive playoff series.
They currently sit at the fourth seed with roughly the same win percentage they had last season, so there's an opportunity to approach the high 50-win team mark if they're persistent.
Questions for the coming week:
1. Can Houston keep up this defensive intensity?
Defending at a high level without at least one traditional center is tough and it requires a lot of team effort and little margin for error. Houston's point-of-attack defense has to be strong as they're isn't a seven-footer at the rim to deter or alter shots if they screw up. There are points where the Rockets don't seem to have it and it becomes a layup drill for opposing teams - the first half against the Jazz being a great example of this. They can only have one bad quarter a game if they want to be a top-ten defense by season's end.
Over their last three games, the Rockets have a stellar defensive rating of 104.3, good for fourth in the NBA. Their ability to carry this momentum through the rest of the season is going to tell us a lot about their viability in the playoffs.
2. Is Jeff Green the full-time backup center?
As stated earlier, the Rockets are making a concerted effort to get a look at Jeff Green as the full-time backup to P.J. Tucker, but there may be competition at that spot, particularly from the person who last occupied that spot in Thabo Sefolosha. Sefolosha is older and not as athletic, but he's shown the ability to always be in the right positions defensively and make less mistakes than Jeff Green. It looked like he'd found a comfort level at the backup center spot too.
It's possible that Sefolosha's just fallen out of the lineup, but I would not be surprised if he made a return soon. Green has to play really well during this home stretch to secure a rest-of-the-season contract with Houston.
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Through 20 games, the Houston Astros have managed just six wins and are in last place in the AL West.
Their pitching staff trails only Colorado with a 5.24 ERA and big-money new closer Josh Hader has given up the same number of earned runs in 10 games as he did in 61 last year.
Despite this, these veteran Astros, who have reached the AL Championship Series seven consecutive times, have no doubt they’ll turn things around.
“If there’s a team that can do it, it’s this team,” shortstop Jeremy Peña said.
First-year manager Joe Espada, who was hired in January to replace the retired Dusty Baker, discussed his team’s early struggles.
“It’s not ideal,” he said. “It’s not what we expected, to come out of the shoot playing this type of baseball. But you know what, this is where we’re at and we’ve got to pick it up and play better. That’s just the bottom line.”
Many of Houston’s problems have stemmed from a poor performance by a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. Ace Justin Verlander and fellow starter José Urquidy haven’t pitched this season because of injuries and lefty Framber Valdez made just two starts before landing on the injured list with a sore elbow.
Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his season debut April 1, has pitched well and is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts this season. Cristian Javier is also off to a good start, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in four starts, but the team has won just two games not started by those two pitchers.
However, Espada wouldn’t blame the rotation for Houston’s current position.
“It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster how we've played overall,” he said. “One day we get good starting pitching, some days we don’t. The middle relief has been better and sometimes it hasn’t been. So, we’ve just got to put it all together and then play more as a team. And once we start doing that, we’ll be in good shape.”
The good news for the Astros is that Verlander will make his season debut Friday night when they open a series at Washington and Valdez should return soon after him.
“Framber and Justin have been a great part of our success in the last few years,” second baseman Jose Altuve said. “So, it’s always good to have those two guys back helping the team. We trust them and I think it’s going to be good.”
Hader signed a five-year, $95 million contract this offseason to give the Astros a shutdown 7-8-9 combination at the back end of their bullpen with Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly. But the five-time All-Star is off to a bumpy start.
He allowed four runs in the ninth inning of a 6-1 loss to the Braves on Monday night and has yielded eight earned runs this season after giving up the same number in 56 1/3 innings for San Diego last year.
He was much better Wednesday when he struck out the side in the ninth before the Astros fell to Atlanta in 10 innings for their third straight loss.
Houston’s offense, led by Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, ranks third in the majors with a .268 batting average and is tied for third with 24 homers this season. But the Astros have struggled with runners in scoring position and often failed to get a big hit in close games.
While many of Houston’s hitters have thrived this season, one notable exception is first baseman José Abreu. The 37-year-old, who is in the second year of a three-year, $58.5 million contract, is hitting 0.78 with just one extra-base hit in 16 games, raising questions about why he remains in the lineup every day.
To make matters worse, his error on a routine ground ball in the eighth inning Wednesday helped the Braves tie the game before they won in extra innings.
Espada brushed off criticism of Abreu and said he knows the 2020 AL MVP can break out of his early slump.
“Because (of) history,” Espada said. “The back of his baseball card. He can do it.”
Though things haven’t gone well for the Astros so far, everyone insists there’s no panic in this team which won its second World Series in 2022.
Altuve added that he doesn’t have to say anything to his teammates during this tough time.
“I think they’ve played enough baseball to know how to control themselves and how to come back to the plan we have, which is winning games,” he said.
The clubhouse was quiet and somber Wednesday after the Astros suffered their third series sweep of the season and second at home. While not panicking about the slow start, this team, which has won at least 90 games in each of the last three seasons, is certainly not happy with its record.
“We need to do everything better,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “I feel like we’re in a lot of games, but we just haven’t found a way to win them. And good teams find a way to win games. So we need to find a way to win games.”