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State of the Rockets: Robert Covington's IQ, Russell Westbrook shooting threes again, and more
Feb 24, 2020, 5:31 am
Rockets' advanced stats (per cleaningtheglass.com)
As of last week:
Offensive RTG: 113.5 (5th)
Defensive RTG: 110.1 (15th)
Net RTG: +3.4 (10th)
As of this week:
Offensive RTG: 114.0 (3rd)
Defensive RTG: 110.0 (15th)
Net RTG: +4.0 (7th)
Biggest developments:
1. Rockets sign DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Green on the buyout market
Compared to the other players that were out there (namely Marvin Williams and Markieff Morris), DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Green are probably on the middle end of the spectrum of buyout players. At this point, it's unclear if either of these players will secure a rotation spot come playoff time. One would think Carroll would be the obvious candidate for a spot considering he's probably been the better NBA player for his career, but it seems the Rockets really want to give Green a serious look at backup center. Green's athleticism makes him an obvious lob threat, but inconsistent offensive play and defensive liabilities have plagued him throughout his career.
I suppose if he were to become a productive player in the NBA, it would be at center. You don't have to be a knockdown shooter and if you're going to switch everything like the Rockets, you don't have to be a great rim protector. Still, selling yourself on Jeff Green is something you should do at your own risk. He is on a ten-day contract so there's no risk in Houston getting a look at him for a few games to see if they like the fit.
It will be interesting to see if Carroll can crack what has turned out to be a crowded wing rotation. Between Harden, Covington, Gordon, House, and, McLemore, there's just not a lot of minutes to go around. It's possible Carroll is on the roster to be break-in-case-of-emergency kind of guy considering injuries are unpredictable and the Rockets may need veterans to help fill a role in a pinch.
2. Holy crap, Robert Covington is good
There was never really a question whether Robert Covington would provide value to Houston when they traded for him at the deadline. The question was always whether or not that value would be worth moving on from Clint Capela and Houston's 2020 first round pick. So far, he's been brilliant.
Houston Rockets without Robert Covington:
Offensive RTG: 105.7
Defensive RTG: 122.3
Net RTG: -16.5
Houston Rockets with Robert Covington:
Offensive RTG: 118.2
Defensive RTG: 102.5
Net RTG: +15.7
Defensively, he's incredibly intelligent and it kind of feels like he's been in a box until he got to Houston. What I mean by that is the teams that had Covington played him primarily at small forward and didn't switch nearly as much as the Rockets like to. Don't get me wrong, this is a perfectly fine role for Covington as he's a very good on-ball defender, but you're blanketing one of his greatest strengths. Covington's ability to be a weak-side shot blocker on big men is an asset that's always been there, but it's highlighted with Houston because of the positions they put him in.
It was tempting to just post one of the three blocks he had on Rudy Gobert on Saturday, but I felt the content was too graphic to post. I have a responsibility to my readers, so I had to make an executive decision. What Covington did to Gobert on Saturday night was just bullying. There's no other way to describe it.
There's also his offense, which, while understated, is still an asset. Covington's three-point shooting stroke is so natural and effortless, it's kind of insulting that he wasn't taking over seven threes a game until he returned to the Rockets. His percentage may be around league average (35.8%), but his willingness to any and all open looks is a something Houston was only getting previously with Ben McLemore.
It's completely ridiculous that Covington took and made this shot considering how low he caught it and how close the defender was already.
3. Russell Westbrook is shooting threes again
Does anybody remember that five game stretch where Russell Westbrook only attempted two three-pointers and it seemed like he was going to stop shooting them? Well, there's a possibility that people may have jumped the gun there. Over his last six games, Westbrook has attempted 16 three-pointers, almost three times more than the amount he took in the six games prior to this stretch. Now, 16 three-pointers over six games isn't a lot (2.7 per game), but it's possible that he's starting to regain confidence in that shot and will begin taking them at high volume again. He took four against the Jazz, the most he's taken since February 2nd.
There's not a large enough sample size to suggest that Westbrook is just going to start chucking three-pointers again, but it's definitely something to monitor. The Rockets seem to be much more effective when Westbrook is driving in open space and opting for mid-range jumpers as opposed to the threes. He's also become a once-in-a-while lob threat for James Harden when defenders sag off of him in the corners.
Week of games in review:
Going into the All-Star break, the biggest question for the Rockets was whether or not they'd be able to grab a top seed in the West by making a strong run to close the season. Houston has developed a reputation for closing seasons out much better than how they started them. Last season, the Rockets went 21-7 in their last 28 games with the second best Net Rating in the NBA (+10.4) and were able to grab the 4th seed after being as low as 14th during the season.
Rockets since the All-Star break: Offensive RTG: 126.2 Defensive RTG: 107.0 Net RTG: +19.3 https://t.co/8wgQY9qjpl— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1582435506.0
If they're going to make a run, this week was about as strong a start as you're going to get. The Golden State win was dominant buzzer to buzzer, which is something to the Rockets have struggled to do all season - bludgeon bad teams. They've beat bad teams, but a true sign of a title contender is having the ability to make it a no-contest by the fourth quarter, which this was. The Utah win was impressive in that it adds to the list of very good teams Houston has been able to beat since they went to micro-ball (Los Angeles, Boston, Utah, etc...). This win also hammered home what we've kind of known for years: Rudy Gobert and the Jazz still don't have any answer against the Rockets' offense in open space, making them close to non-threat to Houston in a competitive playoff series.
They currently sit at the fourth seed with roughly the same win percentage they had last season, so there's an opportunity to approach the high 50-win team mark if they're persistent.
Questions for the coming week:
1. Can Houston keep up this defensive intensity?
Defending at a high level without at least one traditional center is tough and it requires a lot of team effort and little margin for error. Houston's point-of-attack defense has to be strong as they're isn't a seven-footer at the rim to deter or alter shots if they screw up. There are points where the Rockets don't seem to have it and it becomes a layup drill for opposing teams - the first half against the Jazz being a great example of this. They can only have one bad quarter a game if they want to be a top-ten defense by season's end.
Over their last three games, the Rockets have a stellar defensive rating of 104.3, good for fourth in the NBA. Their ability to carry this momentum through the rest of the season is going to tell us a lot about their viability in the playoffs.
2. Is Jeff Green the full-time backup center?
As stated earlier, the Rockets are making a concerted effort to get a look at Jeff Green as the full-time backup to P.J. Tucker, but there may be competition at that spot, particularly from the person who last occupied that spot in Thabo Sefolosha. Sefolosha is older and not as athletic, but he's shown the ability to always be in the right positions defensively and make less mistakes than Jeff Green. It looked like he'd found a comfort level at the backup center spot too.
It's possible that Sefolosha's just fallen out of the lineup, but I would not be surprised if he made a return soon. Green has to play really well during this home stretch to secure a rest-of-the-season contract with Houston.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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