FALCON POINTS
Strangest Kentucky Derby in years will take some creative betting
Sep 2, 2020, 6:55 am
FALCON POINTS
Tiz the Law
The Kentucky Derby, usually a staple on the first Saturday in May, will instead be run on the first Saturday in September due to the Rona outbreak. There will be no fans in the stands, and the favorite, Tiz the Law, enters having already won the Belmont and Travers Stakes. Traditionally, the race is the first test in the Triple Crown. This year, it will be the second, with the Preakness closing things out.
Looking a little ahead, if Tiz the Law wins this, he could be going for the Covid Triple Crown in three weeks at Pimlico, possibly facing off with brilliant filly Gamine if she wins the Oaks on Friday. It would be an incredible matchup that would bring a lot of attention to the race.
But first things first. Tiz the Law has to win the Derby first. He will go into the gate as the shortest price favorite in years, probably lower than his 3-5 morning line. He is proven at the distance, has won six of his seven starts including five in a row and towers above a field that frankly isn't very good. If you are taking a shot against him, your one selling point is his only loss came as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs, site of the Derby.
Art Collector was going to take a lot of money, but he is sitting out with a minor injury, which leaves really only Honor A.P. (4-1) and Authentic (8-1) as viable options. But Authentic does not seem to want any part of a mile and a quarter, and Honor A.P. just might not be good enough. He was second in his last start in a four-horse field, and his win in the Santa Anita Derby was against six other horses, with only Authentic a real threat in that one.
So making money on the race is going to take some creativity. A long shot to watch is Max Player, who was third twice behind Tiz the Law. He seems to want more distance, has been working well at Churchill and switches to the barn of trainer Steve Asmussen. He is 30-1 in the morning line and should be every bit of that. While it is hard to see anyone beating Tiz the Law, there is no reason Max Player can't out finish the rest of the field.
Some ways to approach the race might include a Tiz the Law with Max Player will ALL trifecta, and a Tiz the Law with ALL with Max Player. If Tiz wins and Max his the board, it could produce a decent payout. I would also consider playing Max Player across the board, weighted heavier toward third and second than first, a strong exacta box with Tiz the Law, and smaller exacta boxes keying Max Player with as many horses as possible first and second just in case something goes wrong with Tiz the Law. That would include horses like the 1-3-5-7-8-9-12-15-16-17-18.
Stay tuned; premium plays (including undercard plays) will be up on pregame later this week. If you need a place to bet, check out BUSR or mybookie. And check back to this article later in the week as things may get adjusted or added based on scratches or news.
As of now, the weather forecast looks good, so it should be a fast track, but keep an eye out for updates.
Good luck on your wagers.
The Houston Astros head to Camden Yards on Thursday looking to snap a four-game skid as they face the Baltimore Orioles in the fourth matchup of the season. After being outscored by 37 runs in their last 10 games, Houston is hoping to regain the offensive spark that carried them through much of the season. Jeremy Peña has been a bright spot, batting .310 with 21 doubles and 13 home runs, while Carlos Correa has contributed a hot streak recently, going 11-for-37 with a home run and four RBIs over his last 10 games.
On the mound, the Astros will turn to Jason Alexander (3-1, 4.74 ERA), who has shown flashes of effectiveness but will need to limit the long ball against a Baltimore squad that thrives when opponents fail to homer. Brandon Young (1-6, 5.68 ERA) takes the hill for the Orioles, who are 27-14 this season in games when they haven’t allowed a home run. Gunnar Henderson leads the Orioles offensively with a .281 average, 29 doubles, and 15 homers, while Ryan Mountcastle has added some recent firepower, going 12-for-39 with two home runs over the last 10 games.
Baltimore comes in 6-4 over its last 10 with a 2.48 ERA, outscoring opponents by 15 runs, while Houston is 4-6 over the same span with a .193 team batting average and 5.92 ERA.
A win in Camden Yards could be exactly what Houston needs to stabilize its lineup and pitching staff.
Betting odds
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Orioles -112, Astros -107; over/under is 9 runs
Roster Moves
Houston announced four roster moves on Thursday. Taylor Trammell heads to the IL, Brice Matthews has been recalled, JP France completed his rehab and heads to Sugar Land, and Jordan Weems will go to Triple A as well.
We have made the following roster moves: pic.twitter.com/3oGiqmbzmk
— Houston Astros (@astros) August 21, 2025
Astros lineup
The first thing we notice is that Cam Smith is getting the night off. Espada appears to be shaking things up by not having two slumping players (Jesus Sanchez & Smith) in the lineup at the same time.
There's nothing new with the top 3 hitters, except Altuve will play second base. Christian Walker (1B) will hit cleanup, followed by the slumping Sanchez (RF), Yainer Diaz (DH), Victor Caratini (C), Mauricio Dubon (LF), and Jacob Melton (CF).
📍: BAL
⚾️: 6:15pm CDT | 7:15pm EDT
📺: @MLBONFOX
🎙️: @SportsTalk790 | Spanish: 93.3 FM#BuiltForThis x @reliantenergy pic.twitter.com/oPTcSkOw4m
— Houston Astros (@astros) August 21, 2025
___________________________
*ChatGPT assisted.
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!