THE PALLILOG
Texans path to securing top pick in draft is becoming clear
Dec 17, 2021, 10:15 am
The Texans need to keep losing and get some help from Detroit. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Why drafting outside the Top 5 isn't necessarily a bad thing for Texans
What a classic on tap Sunday in Jacksonville. If the tap is pouring bilge water. It's the 2-11 Texans at the 2-11 Jaguars in a matchup that as a start to finish proposition shouldn't even keep the attention of family and close friends. There is basically nothing interesting about the Texans, though Cameron Johnston continues to be the leading Pro Bowl vote getter among AFC punters! We are approaching the best part of this Texans' season: merciful conclusion. Not exactly a silver lining but at least here almost all of us knew the Texans had no chance to achieve even mediocrity this year. What is the prevailing sentiment in Jacksonville? Only the delusional had visions of Jags' glory in 2021, but at least there was optimism and curiosity around the hire of Head Coach Urban Meyer and the drafting of presumed franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Well, Lawrence is still there...
Jaguars owner Shad Khan firing Meyer in the early hours of Thursday morning and saying he'd have no further comment and face no questions until after the regular season is just one more page in an ownership book full of embarrassment. Meyer was his own undoing through a blend of megalomaniacal, stupid, and mere in over his head behavior. The Jaguars have clinched their 10th double digit defeats season in the last 11, nine of the ten have had at least 11 Ls. In what has to be considered a bizarre anomaly the 2017 Jaguars went 10-6, reached the AFC Championship Game, and led at New England by 10 points in the fourth quarter before the Patriots rallied to win. Thiiiiiis close to a Super Bowl that season, straight garbage for the Jags the six prior and now four since.
Yet, Lawrence's presence (for those who believe in him) makes Jacksonville an attractive job beyond the fact it's one of only 32 head coaching gigs. He has little quality around him but Lawrence's rookie campaign has been lousy. He is 28th in QBR (ESPN's better than the NFL's standard quarterback rating) among this season's 32 primary starting signal callers. The four worse are Jared Goff, Davis Mills, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson. All rookies except for Goff. Growing pains.
While there is no quarterback considered worthy of selection in the top few picks of this coming spring's NFL Draft, the Texans are still better off having as high a pick as possible. If the Texans can lose Sunday and drop the ensuing three games (definitely doable!) all they need is for Goff and the Detroit Lions to stumble into one more victory and the Texans get the first pick. The first pick in every round.
Rockets falling back to Earth
The Rockets' back-to-back not close losses to the Cavaliers and Knicks have their record at 9-20. They missed out on two chances to improve their winning percentage above .333 for the first time since they were 1-1. Saturday night they play at even worse Detroit. The Pistons have lost 13 straight and are 4-23. The Rockets need to be careful to not mix in too many victories. They currently have only the fifth worst record in the NBA. Keep that up and they'll be draft lottery longshots to wind up with a top three pick in a draft which at this point has three players considered the top tier of prospects. They are all freshmen: 6'10" Duke forward Paolo Banchero, Gonzaga seven foot 194 pounder Chet Holmgren, and the rising stock of the bunch 6'10" Auburn forward Jabari Smith.
Good news for the Aggies and Longhorns
If Jimbo Fisher never gets Texas A&M to the College Football Playoff (while it's four teams, the semifinals once the field inevitably expands) he will not have been worth his contract. To be determined how it plays out on the field, but Jimbo is recruiting at the necessary level as the Aggies won the mythical National Signing Day championship this week. Steve Sarkisian's UT class came in number five. Maybe the Longhorns can make a bowl next season!
Buzzer Beaters
1. The bloated college football bowl season is underway Friday with the Bahamas Bowl and the Cure Bowl. Toledo and Middle Tennessee State play on Nassau with Coastal Carolina and Northern Illinois meeting in Orlando. Bet you didn't know the Cure Bowl is in Orlando! Can you name any player to ever play for any of the four schools? It's not a quiz.
2. UH did not get jobbed with the no goaltending at the end of the Alabama game last Saturday. It may have been goaltending (though probably wasn't). It absolutely was not clearly goaltending. Be honest vehemently disagreeing Cougar fan. If the roles were reversed you'd be saying "Inconclusive! No way you can call goaltending!" The nature of fandom. Nonetheless, that was a tremendous college basketball game.
3. Best Will Ferrell movies: Bronze-Old School Silver-Anchorman Gold-Elf
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Joe Mixon has carried Houston’s offense in the three games since he returned from an injury.
The running back could be even more important this week with the Texans dealing with another injury to a top receiver after Stefon Diggs went down Sunday.
Diggs sustained a non-contact injury to his right knee and coach DeMeco Ryans refused to provide any details on his injury Monday, saying only that he’s still being evaluated.
His injury comes with leading receiver Nico Collins out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games. He finished with 102 yards rushing and a touchdown in Houston’s 23-20 win over Indianapolis on Sunday.
“Joe showed up big time for us when we needed him most making plays,” Ryans said.
Mixon, who is in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati, became the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in four of his first five games with a team.
The only time he didn’t have 100 yards and a score this season came in Week 2 when he missed almost the entire second half with an ankle injury that kept him out the next three games. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game.
If Diggs is out this week, Tank Dell is the most likely candidate to pick up the slack in the passing game.
His production has dropped off this season after a standout rookie year where he had 709 yards receiving with seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg. He has 229 yards receiving this season and scored his second touchdown in Sunday’s win which improved the AFC South-leading Texans to 6-2.
But Ryans said it will take a group effort to make sure Stroud and Houston’s passing attack, which rank eighth in the NFL, stay on track.
“What I loved about our game (Sunday) was that you saw was multiple guys stepping up and making plays,” he said. “That is what excites me the most about our team … a lot of different guys stepping up and making plays and that is what we will continue to see.”
What's working
Houston’s defense entered Monday’s game ranked second in the NFL by allowing just 280.3 yards a game. The strength of the unit has been the pass defense, which is giving up just 164.3 yards a game.
Safety Jalen Pitre, who had an interception Sunday, said the secondary has gotten a boost from Houston’s pass rush, which ranks third in the league with 27 sacks.
“We’re doing a pretty good job, but it’s a huge credit to our D-line,” Pitre said. “They’re outstanding. They do their job at a high level and it does nothing but make opposing quarterbacks know that they’ve got to get the ball out earlier and that turns into incompletions and interceptions.”
What needs help
The offensive line continued to struggle in pass protection Sunday. Stroud was sacked just twice but was hit nine other times and was under pressure on 57.5% of his drop-backs according to NextGen stats.
The Texans benched left guard Kenyon Green for Jarrett Patterson in the first quarter Sunday as he struggled against the rush. But Green had to come back soon after that because Patterson got a concussion.
Ryans said they’ll continue to evaluate the line to see how they can improve the protection.
Stock up
Dell, who is in his second season, had four receptions for 35 yards and a touchdown Sunday. The performance came after he was targeted four times against the Packers but finished with zero receptions. He has nine career touchdowns, which ties him with Will Fuller for most in franchise history through a player’s first 18 games.
“I’m just super proud of him, what he’s been able to do and he’s going to have to step up really big for us,” Stroud said.
Stock down
Green for his struggles in pass protection Sunday. The 15th overall pick in the 2022 draft missed all last season with injuries before returning to the starting lineup this season.
“We can definitely be better, especially on my end,” he said after the game.
Injuries
S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward is likely to miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury.
Key number
13.3% — Houston’s defense limited Anthony Richardson to a 13.3% completion percentage in the first half Sunday, which was the second-lowest completion percentage by any player in a half since 1991. The second-year quarterback completed just 2 of 15 passes before halftime.
Next steps
The Texans have a quick turnaround before a visit to the New York Jets on Thursday night where they’ll try for their fifth win in six games.