Colts 21, Texans 7
Texans fall to the Colts in Wild Card playoff 21-7
Jan 5, 2019, 6:51 pm
Deshaun Watson had a rough day. Bob Levey/Getty Images
The Texans playoff run came to a brutal end at home against the division rival Indianapolis Colts 21-7. This game was never really close as Indianapolis jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead and the Texans played catch up the rest of the way. Not much went right but the biggest play of the first half was a tipped pass by J.J. Watt that was intercepted by Brandon Dunn. Only down 14-0, it could have shifted the momentum, but like they did four times in this game, Houston failed to gain 10 yards for a first down and gave the ball back to Indianapolis. Playing from behind, Houston was only 2 for 5 on fourth down, and they walked off the field with nothing.
After Houston gave the ball back, the Colts marched down the field again for their third touchdown and a commanding 21-0 lead. They never looked back, and Deshaun Watson and company could never find their footing. J.J. Watt would have another tipped pass, but the defense was overmatched, including Houston's dominant front seven who failed to sack Andrew Luck in this game.
With a big lead in the first half, Indianapolis could spend the rest of the game walking the line between aggressive and conservative play calling. That led to 422 yards of offense for the Colts, 200 on the ground and 222 in the air. Andrew Luck had a big day finding open receivers, especially T.Y. Hilton who caught five passes for 85 yards. Luck finished the day 19 of 32 for 222 yards, two touchdowns and the lone interception. His touchdowns were thrown to tight end Eric Ebron, who had a big year in the end zone for the Colts, and Dontrelle Inman who finished the day with four catches for 53 yards and a touchdown.
It took Houston until the fourth quarter to finally get on the board. Faced with a 21-point deficit they put together a 16 play, 89-yard drive that finished with a 6-yard touchdown pass to Keke Coutee who was playing after a long absence due to injury. The touchdown sparked the offense, and on their next possession they went 65 yards to the Colts 24-yard line. It was there that Watson fell apart. He missed on four consecutive pass attempts and Houston turned the ball over on downs with 4:09 on the clock.
The Colts, who had a huge day running the football, were able to eat up the rest of the time and walk away with a victory. Colts running back Marlon Mack became the first 100-yard runner against Houston all season as he carried the ball 24 times for 148 yards, 47 coming in the final minutes when Houston desperately needed the ball back to have any hope of a comeback. At the end of the day, Watson was 29 of 49 for 235 yards and one touchdown. Coutee was the leading receiver with 11 catches, 110 yards and a touchdown. The All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins was shut down all day and managed only 5 receptions for 37 yards. Houston's running game was led once again by Watson, who took it eight times for 76 yards.
This was largely a demoralizing game for the Texans, who rode a nine-game winning streak to an AFC South Championship. They didn't look the same at the end of the season as teams were making a playoff push, and their shortcomings were exposed in a big way early against the Colts. Now their season is over and changes will come as they prepare for 2019.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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