BEATING THE ODDS?
The Texans have a 2.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. Let's put that in context
Sep 26, 2018, 2:01 pm
Let’s take a break from bashing Bill O’Brien and take an honest look at what lies ahead for the Texans after an 0-3 start.
The most optimistic fan will say they can still turn it around and make the playoffs. A favorable schedule awaits. But let’s take a look at history.
We will go back as far as 1980 for the sample size. In that time, 173 teams have started the season 0-3. Five have made the playoffs. That is 2.8 percent. The last team to do it was 20 years ago with the 1998 Buffalo Bills.
There’s always the “so you’re saying there’s a chance” when it comes to that 2.8 percent number. So let’s look at some other things that are 2.8 percent or close to that number:
Miller64 beer is exactly 2.8 percent alcohol by volume. So if you like that 2.8 number, hoist a Miller64.
Let’s go to poker. The Texans have a better chance of making the playoffs than you do of making quads on the river when your opponent has an overset. So for instance, you hold KK, your opponent has AA. The flop is A-K-Q and the turn is an 8. You win with a king. Your odds? 2.27 percent. So the Texans have that beat.
You have a 0.154 percent chance of being hit by a train. So the Texans have that beat, too.
The odds of dying in a car crash? Just 1 percent. Again, win Texans.
Finally, you have a 2 percent chance of being smart enough to join MENSA. Yay Texans! (O’Brien not so much).
It is four times more likely to snow in Houston than it is for the Texans to make the playoffs.
You have a better chance of being told to “Come on down” on The Price is Right - just over 3 percent.
If you are on death row, you are 10 times more likely to be married than the Texans are to seeing the postseason.
The odds you are having sex every day? 6.0 percent! Yay you! That last one gives the old married contingent some hope, if not the Texans.
Finally, you have a 4 percent chance of being a golf fan, and Tiger Woods just did something the Texans have yet to do -- win. So at least YOU can celebrate.
As for Texans fans, however, the odds may not be forever in your favor.
(Statistics accrued from various research - i.e. Internet searches. Accuracy is not guaranteed. Then again, neither are Texans wins. Also, tip of the cap to Jong Lee for finding the original 5 in 173 number).
The Houston Texans have a big challenge in store as they look to start the season with a win against the Colts this Sunday. When these two teams met in Week 2 last year, the Colts dominated the Texans, despite losing their QB Anthony Richardson to a concussion after the first quarter.
Keeping Richardson contained on Sunday will go a long way in increasing the Texans' chances of coming home with a win. The Texans defense will have their hands full containing the Colts backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Scoring touchdowns with their wide receivers could prove difficult, as the Texans allowed the second-fewest TDs (10) to the receiver position in 2023.
Limiting running back Jonathan Taylor will also be a top priority. While the Texans had an elite defense against the run last season, they struggled with Taylor in Week 18 as he almost rushed for 200 yards.
Houston's D allowed only four carries to running backs in 2023 that went for 20 or more yards. Two of which were to Taylor in the final game of the regular season.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans and company have to find a way to get pressure on the QB. They only had one QB hit and zero sacks on Richardson and Garner Minshew the first time they faced off last year.
On offense, the Texans have two big x-factors to watch for on Sunday. The offensive line that suited up to play the Colts in Week 2 last season is completely different from this year.
The o-line was ravaged with injuries to start the 2023 campaign, so we expect a big jump in productivity in the trenches this year.
Another big addition in 2024 is the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The running game only produced 2 yards per rush in Week 2 against Indy last year, so there's clearly room for improvement.
Be sure to watch the video above for our in-depth preview of Texans-Colts!
And catch Texans on Tap (a Texans podcast) live on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel following every game this season!