THE PALLILOG
Texans-Patriots has a different feel, and making sense out of the Rockets' latest moves
Nov 20, 2020, 9:31 am
The Patriots return to NRG this Sunday. Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images
Texans quarterback DeShaun Watson against the New England Patriots
This time last year Patriots at Texans was so much more interesting. Now it's basically not interesting at all, from the Houston side anyway. The 2-7 Texans actually opened as favorites this week, though the wagering on the game soon changed that. The Texans should be favored over no one other than the Jaguars, Jets, and maybe at home vs. the Bengals or any NFC East team. Currently 4-5, this Patriots squad playing here Sunday is New England's worst in 20 years. Two years before the Texans played their first ever game is the last time the Patriots finished with a losing record. They closed 5-11 in 2000, Bill Belichick's first season as their head coach. The following season they launched a dynasty in winning Super Bowl XXXVI. This season New England must win out to get to 11-5. 2009 is the last time the Patriots didn't win at least 11. In the 10 years since they won at least 12 in nine of them. Ridiculous sustained excellence.
Riding with Rice?
Another double digit slate of college football games postponed this week because of coronavirus issues. The Longhorns, Aggies, and Cougars all are sidelined. Go Owls! Rice has played just two games thus far. The Owls are scheduled to play at North Texas Saturday. They are as I type this anyway.
The theoretical best college matchup of the week is third ranked Ohio State vs. number nine Indiana. The Buckeyes are favored by 20 and a half. Among division one schools none has lost more games all-time than the Hoosiers.
Rockets making money moves
The Rockets are not rudderless but one wonders how badly the rudder is mangled. Who knows how things play out with Russell Westbrook and more importantly James Harden, but this week's action leading up to and then through the NBA Draft speaks at least chapters if not volumes. When the Rockets traded Clint Capela back in February they claimed it was entirely a basketball move about being "all in" on "small ball." That was baloney then and it's baloney now. That it was in significant part basketball move, sure. But even pre-pandemic the financials played a role. At cost of a first round pick they had to include in the deal the Rockets got out of the three seasons more than 51 million dollars guaranteed on Capela's contract starting this season and took on Robert Covington who has two years roughly 24 million left. The financials have absolutely played a role in their moves since. Earlier this week the Rockets agreed to deal Covington to Portland for Trevor Ariza who has just one season 12.8 million coming. That actually seemed a decent deal with the Rockets getting the 16th pick in Wednesday's draft included. Then on draft day the Rockets cut a deal with Detroit to send Ariza and that number 16 pick, for zero in return that goes on the Rockets' books in 2020-21. The Rockets do get the Pistons' first round pick if it comes in 17th or lower any time over the next four years.
A twist of fate for George Springer?
Robinson Cano's second PED suspension, this one to cost him the entire 2021 season and his 24 million dollar salary, likely eradicates any shot he had at ever reaching the Baseball Hall of Fame. Strictly by on field results Cano was going to be an easy choice for Cooperstown. Cano played very well in the shortened 2020 season. Considering he was very unlikely to play that level in 2021, the Mets probably catch a big break getting out of Cano's money for the season. New Mets' owner Steve Cohen is worth an estimated 14 billion but billionaires don't like bad investments either, even if they can cover their losses by reaching between their sofa cushions. Bottom line is if Cohen wants to go on a free agent signing spree (think George Springer) he has 24 extra mil for 2021 with which to work. Cano has two years 48 million due over 2022 and 2023.
It's been very quiet on the Springer front. We'll see, but few think he returns to the Astros. The Blue Jays supposedly have the hots for George. If they're ready to pony up and Springer has any interest in them the White Sox still make the most sense to me.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. Deshaun Watson said this week that Cam Newton has been his favorite quarterback. 20 years from now who will have had the better career? I like Deshaun in that one but remember that in the 2015 season Cam did win the NFL MVP award and lead the Panthers to a 15-1 record and Super Bowl appearance.
2. My favorite QB ever is the late great "Snake" Ken Stabler. That's Raider Ken Stabler, not Oiler Ken Stabler. And for goodness sakes not Saint Ken Stabler.
3. Most coveted Thanksgiving dinner side dishes: Bronze-cranberry sauce Silver-stuffing Gold-sweet potato casserole
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As of 9:42 Central Daylight Saving Time Friday night, the Astros (and all other baseball players) are officially the Boys of Summer, officially so far as the season is concerned anyway. When the summer solstice arrived last year the Astros were nine games off the lead in the American League West. So in addressing the rhetorical axiom “what a difference a year makes,” the difference in the Astros’ case is a whopping 14 games as they start the weekend atop their division by five games. At this point in the season last year the Astros’ record in one-run games was a brutal 5-14. In 2025 they are 13-7 in games decided by the narrowest of margins.
That the Astros are just 4-5 in road games against the two worst teams in the American League is no big deal, other than that every game counts in the standings. Still, just as was losing two out of three at the pathetic White Sox earlier this season, it is no doubt disappointing to the Astros to have only gotten a split of their four-game set with the Athletics. The A’s had gone 9-28 in their last 37 games before the Astros arrived in West Sacramento. The former-Oaklanders took the first game and the finale, as the Astros’ offense played bi-polar ball over the four nights. Two stat-padding explosion games that totaled 24 runs and 35 hits were bookended by a puny one-run output Monday and Thursday’s 5-4 10-inning loss. Baseball happens. Nevertheless, as the Astros open their weekend set versus the Angels, they have gone 17-7 over their last 24 games to forge their five-game division lead.
The New York Yankees’ offense has been by a healthy margin the best attack in the American League so far this season. The reigning AL champions snapped a six-game losing streak Thursday. The Yankees mustered a total of six runs over those six losses, including being shutout in three consecutive games. The baseball season is the defining “it’s a marathon not a sprint” sport. With 162 games on the schedule, combined with the fact that the gap in winning percentage between the best teams and the worst teams is smaller than in any other sport, making much about a series, or week or two of games is misguided, apart from all the results mattering.
The future is now
Without context, statistics can tell very misleading stories. Cam Smith is having a fine rookie season and has the looks of a guy who can blossom into a bonafide star and be an Astro mainstay into the 2030s. But it’s silliness that has anyone talking about the big month of June he’s having. Superficially, sure, going into Thursday’s game Smith’s stat line for the month read a .321 batting average and .874 OPS. Alas, that was mostly about Smith’s two monster games in the consecutive routs of the Athletics. Over those two games Cam went seven for nine with two home runs and two doubles. Over the other 14 games he’s played this month Smith is batting .213 with an OPS below .540.
Cam Smith is a long-term contender for best acquisition of Dana Brown’s tenure as General Manager. If his career was a single game Smith is still in the first inning, but if his career was a stock it’s a buy and hold. If the Astros were for some reason forced to part with all but two players in the organization, I think the two they would hold on to are Smith and Hunter Brown. Jeremy Pena would be another strong candidate, but he turns 28 in September and is two seasons from free agency (unless the rules change in the next collective bargaining agreement). Smith is 22 and under Astros’ control for another five seasons, he’s not even presently eligible for salary arbitration until the 2028 season. Brown turns 27 in August and is currently ineligible for free agency until after the 2028 season.
Angels in the outfield
Hunter Brown pitches opposite Yusei Kikuchi Friday night. Kikuchi was Dana Brown’s big in-season move last season, and Kikuchi was excellent with the Astros which set up to get the three-year 63 million dollar deal he landed with the Halos. After a slow start to his season Kikuchi has been outstanding the past month and a half, with a 2.28 earned run average over his last nine starts. Brown’s 1.88 season ERA is second-best in the big leagues among pitchers with the innings pitched to qualify in the category. Only Pirates’ stud Paul Skenes has a better mark, barely so at 1.85.
Kikuchi was a stellar rental who helped the Astros stretch their consecutive postseasons streak to eight. There was an absurd amount of vitriol over what Dana Brown gave up for him. Joey Loperfido is 26 years old and having a middling season at AAA. Will Wagner is 26 years old and back in the minors after batting .186 with the Blue Jays. Jake Bloss is the one guy who maaaaaybe some day the Astros wish they still had. Bloss is out into 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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