Texans 22, Bills 19
Texans pull off late rally against Bills, escape with rare playoff win in OT
Jan 4, 2020, 7:14 pm
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The Texans needed a little bit of magic on Saturday. In overtime, Deshaun Watson gave them just that.
Watson made one of his magical escapes from a sack, hit Taiwan Jones for a 37-yard play to set up the game-winning field goal in a dramatic 22-19 win over the Buffalo Bills.
The win featured a little bit of everything. A typical Texans playoff first half where they went down 13-0 when they were badly outplayed and outcoached.
But then they rallied from down 16-0 - something they had never done under Bill O'Brien - took a 19-16 lead, blew it on defense, went to overtime where they managed to get a game winning field goal on their second possession thanks to Watson.
They won it in spite of a standard playoff performance early. They found themselves in a 16-0 hole late in the third quarter and looking at yet another first round embarrassment.
Turning the tide
But then J.J. Watt came up with a sack, and held the Bills to a field goal attempt that made the 16-0 margin. After that, the offense finally figured they could run the ball up the gut, and they needed to get Deshaun Watson moving on designed running plays. They marched down and made it 16-8 with a two-point conversion. They forced a fumble that led to a field goal. Then they forced the Bills into their first three and out of the game, and the stage was set with just over nine minutes left in the fourth quarter.
Watson at his best
Watson led them on a scoring drive that resulted in a touchdown and two point conversion and a 19-16 lead with just under five minutes left. They made clutch play after clutch play to take the lead.
But then the defense, bad late in games all season, let the Bills march right down the field and have a chance to tie the game. However, Whitney Mercilus forced an intentional grounding penalty and a fourth and 27. the Jacob Martin followed it up with a sack. Still, the Texans could not run out the clock, and the Bills had one last chance with 1:16 left and no timeouts. The Bills once again got into field goal range, and this time they tied it and send the game to overtime.
Doesn't mask the problems
The victory should not excuse some of the coaching errors. Bill O'Brien wasted a challenge on a PI call that was never being overturned. His play calling was conservative and predictable for the better part of three quarters. He handcuffed Watson early with poor play calling.
But the Texans overcame that. As bad as the play calling was early, it was excellent in the fourth quarter. It put the game in Watson's hands, and the stars came to play. Watson and DeAndre Hopkins led the offense. Watt led the defense. Players made plays. Watson. Hopkins. Mercilus. Watt. There is a saying in the hockey playoffs; your best players have to be your best players. When it counted, the Texans best players were the best players.
What's next?
The Texans will face Kansas City next week, based on the Titans beating the Patriots. The Texans will have to play significantly better - and coach better - to be competitive. They won in KC earlier this year, but Pat Mahomes was hobbled and the defense has improved, so they will be significant underdogs. But they did something few expected them to do - come back from a massive deficit and advance to the next round. They were 0-22 in the Bill O'Brien era down 16 points or more. Now they are 1-22 and O'Brien has his second playoff win in five tries.
Getting more will be difficult, but they showed some heart and grit, and in the end, they escaped with a win.
And Watson made it happen.
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The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.
The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.
There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.
College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.
“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”
And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.
KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.
In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.
Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.
That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.
“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”
Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.
Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).
Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.
Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.
“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”
Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.
Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.
The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.
This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.
“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”