THE PALLILOG
Texans season now hangs in the balance after debacle against Broncos
Dec 13, 2019, 8:09 am
Friday the 13th. Triskaidekophobes' worst nightmare. It's silliness. Like believing in the Texans as Super Bowl contenders.
So how did the Texans go from toppling the 10-1 Patriots one Sunday, to having the 4-8 Broncos humiliate them the next? That is what mediocrity is all about, Houston Texans style. Imagine how ugly it would have gotten had the Broncos not had to deal with the intimidation factor of playing under a closed roof on a gorgeous autumn afternoon. There was a surprising number of no shows for an 8-4 home team off of two quality wins. Coincidence? Certainly not entirely. Ticket holders who opted to stay away joined essentially the entire team in no-showing.
With their record 8-5 the odds still favor the Texans making the playoffs. Winning two of the remaining three games does the job (and secures other one of those cute little AFC South Champion banners!). Of course, the odds favored the Texans not trailing 31-3 at home at halftime to a Broncos' team that hadn't scored more than 24 points in any game all season. Winning one to finish 9-7 could mean a Wild Card. Yippee!
They are only three point underdogs at Tennessee Sunday. If the Texans' feeble pass rush can't pick it up the Texans' D figures to be D-stroyed again. Ryan Tannehill's career revival with the Titans has been astounding. What reasonable person would have believed that entering this game Tannehill would be playing better quarterback than Deshaun Watson over the last month? Defending Derrick Henry's power running is a big problem, and that has made Tannehill devastating in the play action passing game. Good chance the Texans will need to score more than 28 points to win. They last did so eight games ago in their 31-24 victory at Kansas City. The Titans look like the better team right now, but week to week in the NFL who knows.
As I put it on the radio show earlier this week, in an either or scenario which would you prefer: the Texans do win their division, maybe win a wild card weekend home game, and if they do then take a shot at not getting crushed at Baltimore again. OR…the Texans lose twice to the Titans, lose in Tampa, tumbling from 8-4 to an 8-8 playoff miss and Cal McNair decides to fire Bill O'Brien?
Tough spell for Astros
Given that Oakland wasn't a possibility, Gerrit Cole picking the Yankees is the Astros' worst case scenario. If you're thinking nine years 324 million dollars is nuts, of course nine years is crazy long, but the Yankees are a money printing machine. Forbes magazine estimate for 2018 had the Yankees generating roughly 300 million dollars more in revenue than did the Astros.
Another bottom line: with Cole the Yankees are markedly better, without him the Astros are markedly worse.
The Astros are in a payroll bind, hence the trade Carlos Correa rumblings. In isolation, trading Correa would be dumb. Yes he has proven brittle. But Correa is also super-talented, 25 years old, and for two more years in Major League Baseball terms, dirt cheap. Trade Correa for what? A desperate play to escape the 13 million dollar anvil that is Josh Reddick's 2020 contract? Offered for nothing in return the Astros have no takers for Reddick. As a must take in a Correa deal, Reddick would drive down the return the Astros could get.
The Astros would be seeking a cheap, multi-years team-controlled stud young starting pitcher for Correa. They're not getting one for him. Guys like the Dodgers' Walker Buehler, the Cardinals' Jack Flaherty, the Braves Mike Siroka, the Indians Shane Bieber, those teams wouldn't swap their guy for Correa straight up. They'd laugh at an Astro offer of Correa and Reddick. Reds' starter Luis Castillo's name has been thrown against the wall. He's had one really good full big league season. At 27 years old, Castillo isn't eligible for arbitration until 2021. Why would the Reds trade him for Correa who can walk as a free agent after the 2021 season? Mets starter Noah Syndegaard? Probably not available, and he can become a free agent the same time as Correa.
It's always easy to burn someone else's money, but the Astros' best play is keeping Correa and swallowing the Reddick 13 mil if necessary, rather than taking 70 cents on the dollar back in a trade. Jim Crane and his partners can make back any loss in profit margin during this Astros' window of excellence by cutting costs when the next rebuilding time comes around and/or by selling the team down the line for several times the 610 million dollars they paid to buy it.
Buzzer Beaters
1. If you can get a ticket, UH-Oklahoma St. at Fertitta Center is the place to be Sunday afternoon. 2. The NBA has captivated very few around here so far this season, but the relentlessness of James Harden's scoring pace (37.6 points per game) is stupefying. 3. Absurd actual phobias: Bronze-Somniphobia, fear of sleep Silver-Cherophobia, fear of happiness Gold-Arachibutyrophobia, the fear of peanut butter sticking to the roof of your mouth
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What were the takeaways from the Texans-Panthers preseason game?
We’re getting close to cuts, so the stakes are high with one last chance to make a lasting impression in the final preseason game. In the Texans’ win over Carolina, the biggest takeaway was the offensive line and running game — they looked good. Pass protection held up, and C.J. Stroud put together a nice touchdown drive capped off with a fourth-down throw to Nico Collins. Both rookies Jayden Higgins and Jalen Noel caught passes, and Nick Chubb looked sharp running with the starters.
How did the O-line look?
The line already looks much improved from last season. Pass protection was solid, run blocking was effective, and they were able to grind out yards while giving Stroud a clean pocket. Rookie Aireontae Ersery continues to impress, and there’s a real chance he ends up as the starting left tackle over big ticket free agent Cam Robinson. Robinson is back at practice, but Ersery has looked good with the first unit — and he was drafted to take Laremy Tunsil’s spot anyway, so why not speed up the process?
In practice the starters have been LT Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews, RG Ed Ingram, and RT Tytus Howard. If Robinson slides back to left tackle, Ersery could move to right tackle with Howard shifting inside to guard. It’ll be interesting to see what combo the Texans roll out against the Rams in Week 1.
Did the running backs impress?
Chubb looked good behind the line, finishing with 5 carries for 25 yards and a reception. He seemed comfortable in the scheme and showed some burst — it’s obvious he knows what he’s doing. If Joe Mixon isn’t ready for the start of the season, Houston should be in good hands with Chubb.
Damien Pierce is still out, which has given rookie Woody Marks more opportunity. He made the most of it with 40 yards on 7 carries against Carolina. He’s also shown he can help on third down with his ability in the passing game, which could earn him a real role.
How did the receivers look?
Rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel both caught passes. Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Justin Watson each added a couple of grabs too. Based on last year, Stroud tends to funnel targets to his top two options. A season ago it was Collins and Stefon Diggs before injuries hit. This year, Kirk looks capable of filling that Diggs role out of the slot. He just fits.
Reaction to the John Metchie–Harrison Bryant trade
The Texans needed more tight end depth with Brevin Jordan hurt, and Metchie wasn’t going to make the team. Bryant gives them another option, and it looks like tight ends may play a bigger role in the offense after Irv Smith Jr. led the team in catches and yards against Carolina.
Special teams also factored in. Metchie doesn’t play there, while Braxton Berrios and Justin Watson do, which gives the Texans more flexibility. Collins, Kirk, Higgins, Noel, and Hutchinson all look like locks at receiver, so moving Metchie made sense. It will be interesting to see who the final pieces will be in the Texans receiver room. Will they keep Watson and/or Berrios? We'll find out on Tuesday when the final cuts are made. Stay tuned!
What to watch for against the Lions
It’s all about the offense at this point. The defense is expected to be elite, so the spotlight shifts to Stroud and the rest of the unit. If the offensive line holds up against Detroit and the operation looks sharp, the Texans should be well-positioned to open the regular season on the right foot.
There's so much more to break down! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The NFL season is almost upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Texans on Tap podcast, which drops each Thursday during the preseason! More episodes will ramp up when the regular season begins! We'll go live on YouTube after every regular-season game.
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