J.J. Watt has not been seen since getting helped off the field early last season. Bob Levey/Getty Images
The Texans are hoping they can return to their former defensive glory in 2018 under coordinator Romeo Crennel. That means they need to get back to being stout up front against the run and penetrating against the pass. Really, they need J.J. Watt back and healthy. They’ve got enough pieces around him to make a pretty good group. If healthy though, his intangibles can put them over the top.
So, let’s start with his situation. Watt is expected to be available at the start of camp and should avoid any injury designation. He is coming back from a tibial plateau fracture in his left leg after playing only five games in 2017. That comes after playing only three in 2016. He and the team are counting on a bounce back year.
He’s probably going to be on a snap count early in the season to make sure there are no lingering issues. It will be up to a group, mostly the same players on the team last season, to keep the defensive rotation solid. That group will be led by versatile playmaker Jadeveon Clowney.
He’s not just a defensive end out there. Last season he lined up all over the front seven and will do so again. He plays defensive end, outside linebacker, middle linebacker and even defensive tackle. Anywhere they think he can be disruptive he will play. Both he and the Texans are going to need that as he goes into his fifth and final year of his contract. A new deal isn’t done yet and if he doesn’t get one soon, he will use this season to leverage an even bigger payday in the spring.
Christian Covington is going to be the other anchor at defensive end. But he too will be returning from injury. He played in the first seven games last season before tearing his bicep and going on the disabled list. Before that he was a solid piece up front and I expect him to be so again, providing more flexibility to the line.
But competition will be fierce. Second year man Carlos Watkins is going to do everything he can to take a big leap in his development. If he can, the rotation at that position will be what it needs to be to stay fresh for a full 16 game schedule. But he’s going to be in a dogfight with the guy he was on the field with a lot last year, Joel Heath. Watkins and Heath should make this team easily, but nothing is guaranteed.
Like any good team, Watt, Covington, Watkins, and Heath aren’t the only defensive ends in camp. Rotation player Angelo Blackson is returning after getting in nine games in 2017 and former Houston Cougar Nick Thurman will be there as an undrafted free agent. They will have their shot to make the roster, but I see them being on the outside looking in.
On the inside, plugging up the middle at nose tackle once again is D.J. Reader. He’s had a great first two seasons in Houston and with a little help he can probably do even better this year. Reader is exactly what a nose tackle should be in the NFL. He can hold the point of attack and leverage himself well in the pass rush.
But after Reader’s injury, Brandon Dunn was the man who stepped up to fill his shoes. He returns this season to be a piece of the rotation. A solid group in the trenches might help the Texans be better than the 13th ranked run defense they were last year.
Rounding out this group are three guys hoping their long shot to make the team isn’t too long. Darius Kilgo and Marcus Hardison will be looking to make their second rosters since being drafted in 2015. Kilgo saw game action his rookie year in Denver but wasn’t an impact player. Hardison made the final roster for the Bengals in 2015 but was never active for a game.
The last nose tackle on the roster for camp is undrafted rookie Kingsley Opara from the University of Maryland. He’s an upside player who needs to develop more of his game as an inside pass rusher. He can benefit from some good coaching in camp and will be a candidate for the practice squad later.
All in all, this group can be a great asset for Houston. Getting back Watt and Covington can be the biggest difference in a defensive turnaround from one year to the next. It was just two years ago that they were the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL. A big part of that was a tough defensive line and the ability to get a great pass rush. If they are healthy expect big things all around for Romeo Crennel’s group.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.