Texans 22, Bills 19

Texans vs Bills Wildcard Playoff: Good, bad & ugly

Texans vs Bills Wildcard Playoff: Good, bad & ugly
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Another home playoff game in the Bill O'Brien era, another heartache. At least this time it ended in a victory. Here are my observations of the Texans' overtime win:

The Good

-J.J. Watt came up with a sack that helped force a field goal after the Texans turned the ball over in their own territory. On the 3rd&8 play, he beat the Bills' rookie right tackle with one move and Josh Allen had nowhere to go. Good to see him back less than three months away from tearing his pectoral muscle. This sack was a clear turning point in the game, and it was made that much sweeter when...

-...the effort of Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Duke Johnson, and Carlos Hyde to take the offense down and score. Watson put the team on his back with a touchdown run and two-point conversion to make it 16-8. From that point forward, Watson put the team on his back, literally and figuratively. His wizardry to evade defenders often gets him in trouble, or it sets up a game-winning field goal in overtime.

-Gareon Conley made two touchdown-saving plays in the 1st half. One was an athletic breakup, the other was a heads up arm grab to ensure Duke Williams dropped the ball. Both were on key 3rd downs and both resulted in the Bills settling for field goals. The halftime score could've been 21-0 instead of 13-0 if it weren't for Conley.

*Honorable Mention goes to Whitney Mercilus. He's been M.I.A. for a large stretch of the season. When he recently signed an extension, it was deemed laughable. However, he earned a good portion of that money today with his performance, especially in the clutch.

The Bad

-The Texans won the coin toss and deferred to the 2nd half. The defense couldn't hold the Bills juggernaut offense on the opening possession of the game and allowed them to go 75 yards in six plays for a touchdown. The chunk play on the drive: a Josh Allen 42-yard run that flipped field position. The scoring play: a Josh Allen touchdown catch. Not the way you want to start a game. But hey, at least the opening kickoff wasn't returned for a touchdown. Progress?

-At one point early in the 2nd half, Josh Allen had three times as many total yards as Deshaun Watson. To make matters worse, Watson was also sacked seven times, a few of which were his fault. Through the first 38-plus minutes of play, Watson was being outplayed by Allen and it showed on the scoreboard.

-Explosive plays are considered anything over 20 yards. The Texans were considered the more explosive offense, while the Bills were thought to be a more plodding offensive unit. That was debunked when I looked up and saw the Bills outdid the Texans in explosive plays five to three.

The Ugly

-Whether you want to blame the league and the refs for the sham of pass interference reviews, or Bill O'Brien for challenging it, the Texans' first drive came to a halt at the Bills' 37 yard line on 3rd&8 when Watson had Hopkins but the pass fell incomplete after some contact. It wasn't very clear, so O'Brien shouldn't have challenged it. It also shows that the refs aren't going to overturn very many of these calls. Waste of a challenge.

-Down 13-0 early in the 2nd half, the defense finally came up with a stop to force a punt. Hopkins caught his first pass of the game after the Texans came up with a huge stop, but fumbled trying to get an extra yard or two. Hopkins routinely carries the ball with one hand, but this time it cost him and his team.

-This was one of the worst tackling performances I've seen in the playoffs. While there weren't any "Beast-quake" plays made because of it, there were far too many extra yards and first downs had simply because the defense failed tackle soundly. Vernon Hargreaves' miss on Dawson Knox

The Texans managed to pull off an improbable win at home. Improbable because they put themselves behind early by not executing and committing awful mistakes. Good thing Allen was the Texans' co-MVP in this game by committing inexcusable errors. They were saved by HUGE plays from the defense and the offense finally stepping up. While they almost gave it away at the end by missing on 4th&1, they managed to hang on and get the win. They even allowed the Bills back in it with a field goal to send it to overtime. Remember when Dabo Swinney called Watson the "Michael Jordan" of football? This game made that proclamation appear like a prophecy. Let's see how they look next week after this thriller. Coming from 16 down in this fashion to win makes this team believe they can beat anyone.

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Will Joe Mixon be the difference in the game? Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS

BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.

Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.

Series record: Texans lead 8-3.

Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.

Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.

Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).

Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).

Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).

Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).

Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.

Dolphins player to watch

QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.

Texans player to watch

QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.

Key matchup

Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.

Key injuries

Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.

Series notes

Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.

Stats and stuff

Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.

Fantasy tip

Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.

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