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In the battle for the early AFC South lead, the Texans lose a close one to the Colts 30-23. Here are my observations:
The Good
-Deshaun Watson had a good game, minus one play here or there. 23/34 for 308 yards and a touchdown to go along with 32 yards rushing on three carries. The three sacks he took weren't really his fault either. One bad decision turned the ball over, but he kept them to a minimum as well.
-DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills both helped Watson's stat line. The duo combined for 13 catches for 211 yards and a touchdown. Moving forward, if the receiving corps stays healthy, I can see this stat line becoming more of a norm. Awesome to see Hopkins have a capable No. 2 on the other side.
-Phillip Gaines had a decent game. For a guy who was injured and has never found a home, he's seemed to have found one in the Texans secondary room which has doubled as an infirmary. He's always had good size and athleticism, but never stayed healthy. (I wrote this earlier in the 2nd half, and he got carted off with 1:46 left in the game. I jinxed him.)
The Bad
-Midway through the 1st quarter, Jonathan Joseph tipped a sideline pass to Chester Rogers. Rogers ended up catching it off the tip and managed to stay in bounds. JJo made a decent play on a ball, but to no avail. That drive eventually led to the Colts' first score and capped a 12 play, 94 yard drive.
-After settling for another field goal instead of a touchdown before halftime, the Texans came out to start the second half by giving up another touchdown drive. This is how they always end up losing games by not stopping opponents and trading field goals for touchdowns.
-With 9:31 left in the game down 28-16, Deshaun Watson threw an interception on a pass intended for Duke Johnson. Johnson was open, but Watson sailed it over his head and into the arms of Pierre Desir. It was a poor decision in an otherwise good game Watson played.
The Ugly
-Tashaun Gipson left the game with a back injury early on and never returned. Will Fuller was also ruled out with a hamstring injury. Jonathan Joseph banged up his shoulder. At this point, I think I'm going to get in shape again. They may need me to play a few snaps. Expect open tryouts on Kirby soon.
-Awful call by the refs cost the Texans a touchdown on their second field goal. Watson was in the grasp of Justin Houston, but managed to keep himself upright long enough to complete what was though to be a touchdown pass to Hopkins. However, the refs blew the play dead saying he was sacked. Protecting the quarterbacks at all costs cost the Texans here.
-Situational football and clock management are like an incurable disease for Bill O'Brien. Down 28-23 in the 4th quarter with about 3:23 left, O'Brien waited until about 2:44 left to call a timeout and call in a safety and free kick. Good idea, poor execution. Know the situation and call for that safety immediately. Or, call the timeout ASAP without letting so much time run off. Will someone get this man a Coaching For Dummies book please?
After Starting 0-13 in Indy, the Texans won three of the next four. Today's loss shouldn't start a new streak. While Watson ended the game with two interceptions, one is for sure his fault, while the other was a great play made on a tipped/dropped ball. While they didn't run the ball well as a team (24 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown), they held the Colts to 62 yards rushing. Perhaps because Jacoby Brissett torched them for 326 yards and four touchdowns passing. I understand they'll need any warm bodies to play defensive back for them in the next few weeks, but what about a pass rush to help those guys? Oh, I forgot, they traded Jadeveon Clowney for a pack of cigarettes and a gas station tuna fish sandwich. They could've traded him long time ago for better draft picks, but didn't listen to me. Such is life. Hopefully this team will have the "next man up" mentality and guys will step up. If not, it could be a long rest of the season.
As we barrel toward Opening Day which is now less than four weeks away, so far it’s been largely a case of no news is good news at Astros’ spring training. Meaning no major injuries to key players, no controversies brewing. There are numerous question marks that can’t truly be answered until we get into the games that count, such as how will Jose Altuve fare as a left fielder. The most exciting thing to happen over the first week of Grapefruit League games would probably be the two-home run game from top prospect Cam Smith, he of the Kyle Tucker trade. Both came off minor league caliber pitchers, but so what. Smith turned 22 years old last Saturday, the ideal is that he forces his way to the big leagues by the end of this season.
A strong majority of players who go on to greatness in Major League Baseball get to the big leagues before they turn 23. I spoke to this with Astros-specific perspective this week during an episode of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. The ten greatest offensive players in franchise history as measured by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric are: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jose Altuve, Lance Berkman, Cesar Cedeno, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Alex Bregman, Joe Morgan, and Bob Watson. Eight of those ten debuted in the majors at 22 years old or younger. Cedeno was 19! Morgan and Watson were 20. Wynn and Altuve were 21. Biggio, Bagwell, and Bregman were 22. That leaves Cruz and Berkman as the exceptions. “Cheo” debuted with the Cardinals and didn’t get to the Astros’ organization until he was 27. Berkman arrived at 23. He should have been up sooner but was backlogged in 1998 behind a fabulous outfield of Moises Alou, Carl Everett, and Derek Bell, with youngster Richard Hidalgo as the top reserve, while first base was manned by Bagwell in the heart of his prime.
The point is, special talents should be fast-tracked and/or fast-track themselves to the Major Leagues. There are numerous exceptions (team mistakes, late bloomers), but a very high percentage of eventual big stars get to The Show at a young age. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout entered at 19. Ronald Acuna Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Jose Ramirez did so at 20. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez were 21. Not all tear it up immediately the way Yordan did upon his promotion in 2019, but rare tools and talents merit accelerated opportunity. The focus here is on hitters, but this isn’t a bad spot to note that among the four greatest pitchers ever to hurl for the Astros, only Randy Johnson was older than 22 when he started (25 as a notoriously raw and wild Montreal Expo). Nolan Ryan was a 19-year-old New York Met, Roger Clemens a 21-year-old Boston Red Sox, and Justin Verlander a 22-year-old Detroit Tiger.
This is not predicting mega-stardom or a plaque in Cooperstown for Cam Smith, but if the Astros have such a player in what is presently a lousy farm system overall, the odds overwhelmingly favor Smith being that guy. He should be ticketed for double-A Corpus Christi to start this season after having had just 96 at bats in single-A and 19 at AA in the Cubs’ system after being drafted last July. Should Smith excel with the Hooks, it’s not preposterous to see him getting to the Astros over the summer, especially given the shaky state of the big club’s outfield going into the 2025 campaign. Plenty of players have skipped over AAA. While Smith was drafted as a third baseman, unless the Astros grow offensively desperate enough to move Isaac Paredes to second base, Smith’s fastest path to Daikin Park right now might lead to right field. Coming off a relentlessly bad 2024, it’s make-or-break time for Chas McCormick. Chas is making three-point-four million dollars this season and turns 30 in April. If he is not a heckuva lot better this year, there is no way the Astros are bringing him back at an even bigger salary number in 2026.
Jacob Melton is another outfield prospect, but he’s already 24 years old and has yet to show any sort of elite hitting traits in the minors. Melton looms as a cheaper replacement for Jake Meyers in center.
Those who will ultimately be great only have time siphoned from their careers when not brought up as soon as reasonable. Of course there is risk of unfulfilled potential or straight up bust status. If early failure crushes a player, he wasn’t headed for greatness anyway.
On the upswing
Closing aside: a pinging endorsement for the Astros’ Annual College Classic Friday through Sunday. The reigning national champion Tennessee Volunteers and runner-up Texas A&M Aggies head the field. Rice, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona fill out what is always an excellent six-team event. With gorgeous weather forecast through the weekend the roof should be open throughout. RIGHT?
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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