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In a Sunday Night Football matchup, the Texans managed to impress a lot of people with a huge win over the Patriots. They handed the Patriots their second loss of the season. Here are my observations:
The Good
-Deshaun Watson outdueled Tom Brady. Sure the defenses play a major part in this, but it's clear who won this battle and it's not even close. He also knows magic or something. Former Texan John Simon had him wrapped up and was dragging him down, but Watson managed to escape, throw the ball away, and keep 2nd down at 10 yards instead of 20 or more. That drive ended in a touchdown some 10 plays later.
-The defense had Brady so frustrated, he was visibly shook and seen yelling at teammates after their second possession. While the Patriots' offense hasn't been anything to write home about this season, it was still an impressive performance by a unit that lost JJ Watt for the season, traded Jadeveon Clowney, and has resembled a MASH unit at points this season. Not only did they sack Brady three times, they also picked him off once.
-Bill O'Brien deserves some credit. He went up against Bill Belichick, his mentor of sorts, and came out a winner. This doesn't happen often when it comes to Belichick's coaching tree. O'Brien had a great gameplan on both sides of the ball. Although the reverse option with Watson and DeAndre Hopkins scared me, I was impressed. When things work, you're a genius. When they don't, you're an idiot. Won't call him a genius, but he gets kudos for putting together a great game.
The Bad
-Run defense continued to get gashed this game like they have recently. 145 yards on 29 carries averages out to five yards per carry. They weren't hit with homeruns, but gave up a bunch of singles and occasional doubles. Good thing the pass defense stepped up, or this could've gotten out of hand.
-Speaking of the run game, where the hell was the Texans' rushing offense?!? Must've been on a milk carton because it was definitely missing. 21 runs for 54 yards is what I'd call non-existent. That was the one area I thought they could make hay against the Patriots.
-Way too many missed tackles and a couple blown assignments in coverage. Missed tackles are the flat tire when you're running late of football. Blown coverage assignments are the forgot to pay a bill and something is in danger of getting cut off of football. Good thing the Texans were two hours early for work and had a bill credit or else they were in danger of having a bad day.
The Ugly
-The two loosies included with the 3rd round pick for Clowney each made an "impact" on the game early. Barkevious Mingo got a personal foul penalty after Julian Edelman was stopped for a loss. It extended their drive and got them in field goal range for an early 3-0 lead. Jacob Martin whiffed on a sack of Tom Brady. It took Brady about 30 minutes to scramble the 13 yards for a 1st down, but it shows how badly he missed. I know I was a town crier for trading Clowney, but that was when he had his highest value. Martin redeemed himself with a sack and a half, while Mingo did register two tackles.
-On their second possession of the 1st quarter, Laremy Tunsil let Kyle Van Noy run by him and sack Watson like he owed him money. Van Noy didn't even have to make a pass rush move. It was so bad, it looked like point shaving. Somebody check and see what the over/under was on when the first sack would take place or who would get it. Watson was sacked only three times this game. Tunsil better get it together if he's wanting the type of contract extension he's looking for.
-For as good as the defense played against Brady and the pass game, they sure missed sacking him a bunch. The three sacks they recorded were impressive, but that number should've been higher. Brady is nowhere near a Watson when it comes to escapability, but I'm still flabbergasted at how he manages to escape so many sacks. His footwork in the pocket had the Texans' pass rush flabbergasted as well.
If I would've told you the score at halftime would be 14-3 of this game, most people would think it would be in favor of the Patriots. If I said one quarterback looked fairly average while the other looked like an All Pro, you would've thought Brady was the All Pro most lilely. And if I said someone was out-coached, you would've undoubtedly thought it was O'Brien. My how the tables turned in this game. The Texans are now 8-4 with a game lead on the Titans in the AFC South, and are in third place in the AFC playoffs by virtue of a tiebreaker over the Chiefs. This means they'll get the 6th seed at home in Wildcard round instead of the 5th seed. Every win means something, especially in the playoff race. Texans fans have a lot to be happy about. They deserve it. Especially those that have supported this franchise unwaveringly over the years. Up next are the hapless, but dangerous Broncos. Don't slip on thew banana peel after walking past the oil slick.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!