THE SEC REPORT
The SEC Report: A&M wins close, Alabama loses Tua and Florida pulls out a win
Oct 22, 2019, 5:24 am
THE SEC REPORT
Born with a comic book in one hand and a remote control in the other, Cory DLG is the talent of Conroe's very own Nerd Thug Radio and Sports. Check out the podcast replay of the FM radio show at www.nerdthugradio.com!
Wow, last weekend was crazy right? Texas A&M was only up three coming into the fourth, Missouri and Vandy were tied into the fourth, and South Carolina led against Florida at the top of the fourth; it was a tense weekend. A&M pulled it out obviously to get their season over .500, Vanderbilt went on to win, as did Florida in a really good fourth quarter. Georgia finally got all that bad football out of their system and after being shut out in the first half, scored 21 points in the second half against Kentucky. Here's the real news though, Tua Tagovailoa had a high ankle sprain on the opposite ankle as last year and is now going to miss time to let the ankle heal from surgery. Last year he missed zero games but there was 20 plus days off between his injury in the SEC championship and the first round of the playoffs, it's difficult to gauge how many games he'll miss this time in the middle of a season that now faces actual adversity for Saban's seemingly automatically in the playoffs, usually undefeated, Alabama.
Joe Burrow, Quarterback of LSU, I'm sure by now you know but he was a massive underdog to win the Heisman before the start of the season and is now currently the front runner. That's because he had another great game - 327 yards and another four touchdowns through the air. He's been incredible this season.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, running back of Vanderbilt, had two of Vandy's three touchdowns, one rushing along with 96 yards and one receiving with 80 yards on 4 catches. Vaughn is the engine that drove Vanderbilt to victory this week.
Kyle Trask, Quarterback of Florida who was efficient with only 200 yards but 4 touchdowns to pull out the come behind win over South Carolina who was stalking another upset.
My how things have changed in just one week. Last week Missouri was protecting first place in their division and Florida and Georgia were both reeling, now unranked Missouri is going to Kentucky to try and save their season while both the Gators and Bulldogs are ahead of them and off. All the eyes of the SEC and College Football will be on Arkansas at Alabama, to see how Saban's team handles this very real crisis of Quarterback. Also No. 9 Auburn travels to No. 2 LSU, if LSU wins big again and Alabama wins close against an inferior team, does LSU leapfrog them?
Joe Burrow, quarterback of LSU, for the reasons above. If they have a big game and Burrows continues his Heisman worthy campaign then maybe Alabama falls to No. 2 in both the national rankings and in their own conference.
Mac Jones, quarterback of Alabma, this almost feels unfair but it's such an important game for this kid. Alabama needs him to step up and play, as he is likely to be the guy starting against LSU on Nov. 9, a scant 19 days away.
Bo Nix, Quarterback of Auburn, this is the big showdown this weekend and he needs to recapture some of that early season magic. Auburn is back in the Top Ten and nothing is out of reach now with Tua's injury and LSU on the schedule for Auburn this week and then Alabama playing LSU next week. Winning here and LSU then beating a weakened Alabama makes Auburn and in turn Nix, look amazing.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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