THE COUCH SLOUCH
The Slouch looks at the rest of the NBA season (plus another Astros-related Q&A)
Feb 17, 2020, 7:09 am
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As is our annual tradition at the NBA all-star break, Couch Slouch looks ahead to the remainder of the season – laced with remarkable perspicacity* – at no additional cost to you, the reader.
Yes, I will provide the acumen of subscription-based The Athletic and the access of pricey NBA League Pass…ALL FOR FREE.
Let's do it!
It used to be, "NBA Action, It's FANtastic." Now it's, "NBA Action, Bombs Away!" For much of NBA history, a basket was worth two points. In 1979, they decided that some baskets – from longer distances – would be three points. Then more recently, some analytic smart alecks figured out that three-point baskets were worth one more point than two-point baskets, so let's just make three-point baskets.
The game has changed.
The Milwaukee Bucks' 7-foot center, Brook Lopez, has taken more three-point shots this season (242) than two-point shots (234). The Dallas Mavericks' Kristaps Porzingis, at 7-foot-3, is the tallest man on the floor, yet he has taken almost as many three-pointers (277) as two-pointers (362).
We have evolved from those Pistons'-Bad-Boys, Pat-Riley-with-the-Knicks 88-85 slugfests of the late 1980s and early '90s to the current-day 128-126 playground skirmishes. The games have gone from rugby matches to the Ice Capades.
The fast-break layup has morphed into the fast-break 23-footer.
There is feasibly a middle ground between 88-85 and 128-126; I don't know what that exact number would be, but I always vote for the middle ground.
Three cheers for Ben Simmons, the three-ball contrarian. The multi-skilled Philadelphia 76ers' point guard will not do what everyone wants him to do – take three-point shots. You know how some kids have a mental block about math? Simmons has a mental block about three-pointers.
In his first two NBA seasons, Simmons did not make a three-pointer, attempting only 17 of them. This season he is two-for-six from beyond the arc.
You be you, Ben, two points at a time.
I stand with Simmons: Years ago, newspaper editors insisted I write longer articles with bigger words. No way, I told them – I write short and I use one-syllable words. And I'm still here.
(* "Perspicacity" is a rare exception.)
If it were up to Gregg Popovich, no one would ever take a 25-foot shot. One of the NBA's greatest coaches ever and one of the most severe critics of three-ball, Popovich is in danger of having two remarkable streaks end: In 22 full seasons of helming the San Antonio Spurs, he has never had a losing record and never missed the postseason.
"I've hated the three for 20 years," Popovich said in 2018. At the moment the Spurs are 28th out of 30 NBA teams in three-point shots made and 29th in three-pointers attempted.
The Spurs are 23-31 – five games out of a playoff spot – and their best chance might be to petition the league for transfer into the Eastern Conference.
As usual, the Eastern Conference should be quarantined. The 19-38 Detroit Pistons have a better chance of making the East playoffs than the 33-22 Oklahoma Thunder and 33-22 Dallas Mavericks have of earning home-court advantage in the West playoffs.
Then again, the Pistons also have a better chance of making the playoffs than Ben Simmons does of ever making another three-point shot.
The Golden State Warriors have gone from penthouse to outhouse, three points at a time. Many folks – I am not among them – are delighted that the Warriors, after five straight NBA Finals appearances with consecutive seasons of 67-15, 73-9, 67-15, 58-24 and 57-25, currently have an NBA-worst 12-43 record.
Enjoy it while you can.
Next season, aside from a core of young talent and the likely No. 1 overall pick in the draft, the Warriors will also have all-star Draymond Green, plus the return of the NBA's greatest three-point-shooting back court ever, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
Zion Williamson is the real deal. But he's only taking one three-pointer per game. DO THE MATH, son: 3 > 2.
Ask The Slouch - Special Houston Astros Edition (again)
Q. Is it true that Astros owner Jim Crane has hired Rudy Giuliani to visit Ukraine in search of proof that Hunter Biden was the mastermind behind the sign-stealing fiasco? (Rick LaDuca; Ashburn, Va.)
A. Pay the man, Shirley.
Q. If the Astros ever hire Bill Belichick and Tom Brady as manager and starting pitcher, respectively, will Rob Manfred preemptively suspend them as repeat cheaters? (Tom Walker; Colonie, N.Y.)
A. Pay the man, Shirley.
Q. When MLB adds trash cans to its merchandise list, will they only be available with the Astros logo or will they include all teams with former Astros players/coaches? (David Roberts; Fairfax, Va.)
A. Pay the man, Shirley.
Q. How much trouble is Carlos Beltran's grandmother in for not providing proper guidance? (Ron Anderson; Lynnwood, Wash.)
A. Pay the man, Shirley.
You, too, can enter the $1.25 Ask The Slouch Cash Giveaway. Just email asktheslouch@aol.com and, if your question is used, you win $1.25 in cash!
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Counting up "should win" and "should lose" results is routinely a fool's errand. That said, the Astros enter a stretch which features a bunch of "should win" games. On one hand, beginning this weekend at Daikin Park, the Astros run a gauntlet of 10 games in 10 days, then after an off day, they play another 13 days in a row. On the other hand, over the first 17 games of the 23 in 24 days, the Astros play 14 of them against losing teams: seven vs. the American League East cellar-dwelling Baltimore Orioles, three vs. the utter joke Colorado Rockies, and four vs. the not awful but below .500 Los Angeles Angels. Additionally, the Astros get 10 of those 14 games at home.
The only good team they face until after Labor Day is Detroit, with three games at the Tigers next week. That series looms large. If the Astros are successful in fending off Seattle and yet again winning the American League West, they have a real shot of finishing even with or ahead of Toronto and Detroit. Finishing with the best record in the AL is the ideal, but having the second -best record among the division winners means a bye past the high peril best-of-three first round series. The Astros' 2024 postseason was over in an eyeblink because they had the third-best record of the AL division champs, and then had the Tigers dismiss them in two games.
If the Astros can take two of three in Motown next week, they not only gain ground on the Tigers, but clinch the season series (Astros beat the Tigers two of three in Houston back in April) and with it the tiebreaker should that come into play for playoff seeding. The Astros swept the Blue Jays three straight earlier this year, so winning just one of three games in Canada next month would secure that tiebreaker.
Growing pains
Big picture, it's been a fine rookie season for Cam Smith. Nothing special, but plenty acceptable for a guy with just 32 games of minor league experience before earning/being handed the primary right field job coming out of spring training. Smith's tools and athleticism are clear, so are a couple of holes in his game that need patching if he is to develop into a star. The standards are different for a rookie making the minimum MLB salary of 760-thousand dollars versus a big ticket free agent signing making 20 million dollars, but a higher percentage of Smith's official at bats have ended with strikeouts this season than have Christian Walker's.
Along with improving his rate of contact, Smith needs to tweak his swing path to hit the ball in the air more. With his strength Cam can hit it hard. But hard grounders aren't the objective. Cam has a pair of two-home run games this season. In late June he homered in back-to-back games. In the other 100 games Smith has played, he has just one other homer. One in 100 games. His last dinger was June 28. 138 at bats later he's still sitting on seven for the season. Mauricio Dubon and Taylor Trammell have higher slugging percentages, as did Zack Short in his limited time with the team.
Smith has been feeble since just before the All-Star break, posting a paltry 13 hits in his last 90 at bats for a .144 batting average. He figures to play less down the stretch, a lot less should Yordan Alvarez actually return to the lineup. If ever back, Alvarez figures to slot only as the designated hitter, reducing Jose Altuve's DH opportunities. When Altuve plays left field, Jesus Sanchez is the clear better option to play right against righthanded pitching.
Jose Altuve at his best
Credit to manager Joe Espada for realizing that Altuve at 35 years old needed his load lightened. Should have happened last year, but live and learn. Altuve has been the DH 35 times this season (just five times last year). It is highly likely not a coincidence that after a hot start last year, Altuve was mediocre the last three-quarters of 2024 with a .740 OPS over his final 119 games. This season Altuve started atrociously. He was a straight up lousy player into late-May, waking May 22 with his batting average .238 and his OPS a woeful .629 over 47 games played. In 70 games since: .316/.947. In his 2017 AL Most Valuable Player season Altuve finished with a .957 OPS.
Astros HOF weekend
The Astros retire Hall of Famer Billy Wagner's number 13 Saturday. 12 players wore 13 after Wagner's time in Houston ended. They do not exactly comprise a Who's Who of Astros lore. Tyler White may have been the best of the dozen. Hey, I said the pickings were slim! Cooper Hummel goes down as the last to wear 13 as an Astro in an official game. Hummel wore 13 last season, before being assigned number 16 when he rejoined the team this season.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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