THE COUCH SLOUCH
The Slouch looks at the rest of the NBA season (plus another Astros-related Q&A)
Feb 17, 2020, 7:09 am
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As is our annual tradition at the NBA all-star break, Couch Slouch looks ahead to the remainder of the season – laced with remarkable perspicacity* – at no additional cost to you, the reader.
Yes, I will provide the acumen of subscription-based The Athletic and the access of pricey NBA League Pass…ALL FOR FREE.
Let's do it!
It used to be, "NBA Action, It's FANtastic." Now it's, "NBA Action, Bombs Away!" For much of NBA history, a basket was worth two points. In 1979, they decided that some baskets – from longer distances – would be three points. Then more recently, some analytic smart alecks figured out that three-point baskets were worth one more point than two-point baskets, so let's just make three-point baskets.
The game has changed.
The Milwaukee Bucks' 7-foot center, Brook Lopez, has taken more three-point shots this season (242) than two-point shots (234). The Dallas Mavericks' Kristaps Porzingis, at 7-foot-3, is the tallest man on the floor, yet he has taken almost as many three-pointers (277) as two-pointers (362).
We have evolved from those Pistons'-Bad-Boys, Pat-Riley-with-the-Knicks 88-85 slugfests of the late 1980s and early '90s to the current-day 128-126 playground skirmishes. The games have gone from rugby matches to the Ice Capades.
The fast-break layup has morphed into the fast-break 23-footer.
There is feasibly a middle ground between 88-85 and 128-126; I don't know what that exact number would be, but I always vote for the middle ground.
Three cheers for Ben Simmons, the three-ball contrarian. The multi-skilled Philadelphia 76ers' point guard will not do what everyone wants him to do – take three-point shots. You know how some kids have a mental block about math? Simmons has a mental block about three-pointers.
In his first two NBA seasons, Simmons did not make a three-pointer, attempting only 17 of them. This season he is two-for-six from beyond the arc.
You be you, Ben, two points at a time.
I stand with Simmons: Years ago, newspaper editors insisted I write longer articles with bigger words. No way, I told them – I write short and I use one-syllable words. And I'm still here.
(* "Perspicacity" is a rare exception.)
If it were up to Gregg Popovich, no one would ever take a 25-foot shot. One of the NBA's greatest coaches ever and one of the most severe critics of three-ball, Popovich is in danger of having two remarkable streaks end: In 22 full seasons of helming the San Antonio Spurs, he has never had a losing record and never missed the postseason.
"I've hated the three for 20 years," Popovich said in 2018. At the moment the Spurs are 28th out of 30 NBA teams in three-point shots made and 29th in three-pointers attempted.
The Spurs are 23-31 – five games out of a playoff spot – and their best chance might be to petition the league for transfer into the Eastern Conference.
As usual, the Eastern Conference should be quarantined. The 19-38 Detroit Pistons have a better chance of making the East playoffs than the 33-22 Oklahoma Thunder and 33-22 Dallas Mavericks have of earning home-court advantage in the West playoffs.
Then again, the Pistons also have a better chance of making the playoffs than Ben Simmons does of ever making another three-point shot.
The Golden State Warriors have gone from penthouse to outhouse, three points at a time. Many folks – I am not among them – are delighted that the Warriors, after five straight NBA Finals appearances with consecutive seasons of 67-15, 73-9, 67-15, 58-24 and 57-25, currently have an NBA-worst 12-43 record.
Enjoy it while you can.
Next season, aside from a core of young talent and the likely No. 1 overall pick in the draft, the Warriors will also have all-star Draymond Green, plus the return of the NBA's greatest three-point-shooting back court ever, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
Zion Williamson is the real deal. But he's only taking one three-pointer per game. DO THE MATH, son: 3 > 2.
Ask The Slouch - Special Houston Astros Edition (again)
Q. Is it true that Astros owner Jim Crane has hired Rudy Giuliani to visit Ukraine in search of proof that Hunter Biden was the mastermind behind the sign-stealing fiasco? (Rick LaDuca; Ashburn, Va.)
A. Pay the man, Shirley.
Q. If the Astros ever hire Bill Belichick and Tom Brady as manager and starting pitcher, respectively, will Rob Manfred preemptively suspend them as repeat cheaters? (Tom Walker; Colonie, N.Y.)
A. Pay the man, Shirley.
Q.When MLB adds trash cans to its merchandise list, will they only be available with the Astros logo or will they include all teams with former Astros players/coaches? (David Roberts; Fairfax, Va.)
A. Pay the man, Shirley.
Q. How much trouble is Carlos Beltran's grandmother in for not providing proper guidance? (Ron Anderson; Lynnwood, Wash.)
A. Pay the man, Shirley.
You, too, can enter the $1.25 Ask The Slouch Cash Giveaway. Just email asktheslouch@aol.com and, if your question is used, you win $1.25 in cash!
As we barrel toward Opening Day which is now less than four weeks away, so far it’s been largely a case of no news is good news at Astros’ spring training. Meaning no major injuries to key players, no controversies brewing. There are numerous question marks that can’t truly be answered until we get into the games that count, such as how will Jose Altuve fare as a left fielder. The most exciting thing to happen over the first week of Grapefruit League games would probably be the two-home run game from top prospect Cam Smith, he of the Kyle Tucker trade. Both came off minor league caliber pitchers, but so what. Smith turned 22 years old last Saturday, the ideal is that he forces his way to the big leagues by the end of this season.
A strong majority of players who go on to greatness in Major League Baseball get to the big leagues before they turn 23. I spoke to this with Astros-specific perspective this week during an episode of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. The ten greatest offensive players in franchise history as measured by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric are: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jose Altuve, Lance Berkman, Cesar Cedeno, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Alex Bregman, Joe Morgan, and Bob Watson. Eight of those ten debuted in the majors at 22 years old or younger. Cedeno was 19! Morgan and Watson were 20. Wynn and Altuve were 21. Biggio, Bagwell, and Bregman were 22. That leaves Cruz and Berkman as the exceptions. “Cheo” debuted with the Cardinals and didn’t get to the Astros’ organization until he was 27. Berkman arrived at 23. He should have been up sooner but was backlogged in 1998 behind a fabulous outfield of Moises Alou, Carl Everett, and Derek Bell, with youngster Richard Hidalgo as the top reserve, while first base was manned by Bagwell in the heart of his prime.
The point is, special talents should be fast-tracked and/or fast-track themselves to the Major Leagues. There are numerous exceptions (team mistakes, late bloomers), but a very high percentage of eventual big stars get to The Show at a young age. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout entered at 19. Ronald Acuna Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Jose Ramirez did so at 20. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez were 21. Not all tear it up immediately the way Yordan did upon his promotion in 2019, but rare tools and talents merit accelerated opportunity. The focus here is on hitters, but this isn’t a bad spot to note that among the four greatest pitchers ever to hurl for the Astros, only Randy Johnson was older than 22 when he started (25 as a notoriously raw and wild Montreal Expo). Nolan Ryan was a 19-year-old New York Met, Roger Clemens a 21-year-old Boston Red Sox, and Justin Verlander a 22-year-old Detroit Tiger.
This is not predicting mega-stardom or a plaque in Cooperstown for Cam Smith, but if the Astros have such a player in what is presently a lousy farm system overall, the odds overwhelmingly favor Smith being that guy. He should be ticketed for double-A Corpus Christi to start this season after having had just 96 at bats in single-A and 19 at AA in the Cubs’ system after being drafted last July. Should Smith excel with the Hooks, it’s not preposterous to see him getting to the Astros over the summer, especially given the shaky state of the big club’s outfield going into the 2025 campaign. Plenty of players have skipped over AAA. While Smith was drafted as a third baseman, unless the Astros grow offensively desperate enough to move Isaac Paredes to second base, Smith’s fastest path to Daikin Park right now might lead to right field. Coming off a relentlessly bad 2024, it’s make-or-break time for Chas McCormick. Chas is making three-point-four million dollars this season and turns 30 in April. If he is not a heckuva lot better this year, there is no way the Astros are bringing him back at an even bigger salary number in 2026.
Jacob Melton is another outfield prospect, but he’s already 24 years old and has yet to show any sort of elite hitting traits in the minors. Melton looms as a cheaper replacement for Jake Meyers in center.
Those who will ultimately be great only have time siphoned from their careers when not brought up as soon as reasonable. Of course there is risk of unfulfilled potential or straight up bust status. If early failure crushes a player, he wasn’t headed for greatness anyway.
On the upswing
Closing aside: a pinging endorsement for the Astros’ Annual College Classic Friday through Sunday. The reigning national champion Tennessee Volunteers and runner-up Texas A&M Aggies head the field. Rice, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona fill out what is always an excellent six-team event. With gorgeous weather forecast through the weekend the roof should be open throughout. RIGHT?
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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