Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The Texans are in control of their playoff fate after besting the Titans Sunday. Their 24-21 win over their chief rival for the AFC South crown this year was a microcosm of this season for them. A lot of highs, some lows, head scratching, and barely eking out a win. When you look at good teams, they share several qualities. Perhaps the key quality they all share is consistency. Consistency in football is the ability to play at a high level often enough that opponents know they're in for an uphill battle. That does not describe the Texans.
The game against the Titans was a perfect example of this. Deshaun Watson made three boneheaded plays that could've cost them the game. Some will argue that Bill O'Brien shouldn't have called those plays. However you see it, the interception in the end zone to Duke Johnson, the torpedo pass from inside the five yard line that was intercepted, and the throwaway on 3rd down with about 3:30 left in the game when the Titans had no timeouts were all potential killers. On the flip side, Watson's two touchdown throws to Kenny Stills, his darts to DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Cunningham's All-Pro performance, and Whitney Mercilus' heads up interception at the goal line returned to the Titans' 12 were all great.
What do the Texans need to do in order to be more consistent this year? How can they make a run in the AFC playoff picture? Here are a few things I believe they need to do, that they can do this season, to improve consistency in and try to make a run:
Rush the passer more effectively
There were too many times in the Titans game, and others, that the Texans have not been able to effectively rush the passer. Benardrick McKinney is a good rusher for an inside linebacker. He should be used more either as an edge rusher, or a blitzer up the middle. He's better at rushing the passer than he is in coverage. Also, Whitney Mercilus needs to show up with more than one or two pass rush moves. He too often is shut down when his primary move fails to get him to the quarterback. The Texans pass rush resembles a stalling car: it'll go for a bit, but ultimately gives out after minimal effort.
Manage the damn clock!
Clock management is not a hard thing to do. If you look at how O'Brien does it, you'd think it was akin to open heart surgery by classically trained pianist. Timeouts are precious, so are the seconds that tick off the clock when making a decision that should've already been decided before the game started. Too often the Texans let time fly by them because they seem ill-prepared. The times in which it takes plays to get called in to Watson, break the huddle, and hike the ball takes too much time sometimes. I'm not saying script more plays, but prepare in a manner in which you know what set of plays you want to call in certain situations. And for goodness sake, know the time on the clock and when/where to ise timeouts!
Penalties
Laremy Tunsil has been enemy number one when it comes to offensive line penalties. Lonnie Johnson Jr has been Tunsil's counterpart in the defensive backfield. Penalties have played too big of a factor in the Texans' season. Most of them have been self-inflicted. False starts, holding on both sides of the ball, and other drive killing or extending penalties have plagued them. This is a discipline issue in most cases. Tunsil needs to rely on and trust his athleticism and strength. the defensive backs need to cut out the grabbing past five yards of the line of scrimmage. I bet if they institute a hefty fine system for penalties, it would help. Accepted penalties weigh heavier than declined ones. The more yards and penalties you accumulate, the heftier the fines. Watch how quickly it dies down.
Don't get cute
This goes for O'Brien and Romeo Crennel. Stop getting cute with the play calling. The DeAndre Hopkins option to Watson worked, but was almost as disastrous as the "Watt-cat". Crennel needs to learn not to put his players in positions that ask them to do things they aren't capable of doing (ex: Jonathan Joseph getting beat deep up the sideline by A.J. Brown or any time McKinney is in coverage). Knowing your personnel and what they're capable of is key in calling plays and knowing formations and groupings. K.I.S.S.
Health
When this team is fully healthy, specifically the offense, they are fun to watch. But this is football. Health at this part of the season is relative. This is when coaching up your talent and depth building by the front office comes into play. The next man up mentality and ability to play through pain are crucial. Being hurt and injured are two different things. Guys who are hurt play, while guys who are injured don't. The guys I'm looking at: Will Fuller, J.J. Watt, and Justin Reid. Fuller opens up the offense when healthy. Reid is fighting a shoulder injury and is a key contributor to a maligned secondary. Watt is the wildcard here. If he can come back from the torn pec and provide anything to the pass rush, it'll give the defense a much needed boost.
Will this team make the playoffs? Yes. Will they advance past the first round? It's possible considering they could be playing at home. Can they make an AFC title game? I'm highly skeptical. Is a Super Bowl run or win possible? I wouldn't bet the lint from my laundry on it. This team has enough talent to compete with anybody, but it's the intangibles that can put them over. Can they put it together? Will they put it together? Hate all the questions I'm asking? I do too. Unfortunately, this Texans team has too many questions to be consistent.
So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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