A Look At The AAC
The UH/AAC Report: UH blows game vs Tulane, plus a couple surprising outcomes
Sep 25, 2019, 6:55 am
Tim Warner/Getty Images
Just another ho-hum week in the AAC. Nothing major to report. Not only did UH lose a road conference game, but they lost the face of their program as well. One other team had a letdown loss, while another surprised everyone with an upset win. Here's a look into week four of the AAC:
UH drops the ball vs Tulane
The Coogs snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. They led 28-7 early on in the second quarter as they looked as if they were going to cruise to an easy win. However, through sloppy play on both sides, they were outscored 31-3 the rest of the way and lost on a game-winning 53 yard touchdown pass with three seconds left. Four days later, star quarterback D'Eriq King decided to redshirt the remainder of his senior season, but says he plans on coming back to UH next season. So much for Dana Holgorsen's first season as head coach.
Other key results
UCF 34, Pitt 35: Pitt wasn't expected to end UCF's 27 game regular season win streak, but they did, and did so in dominating fashion. In rushing yards differential, Pitt was +111 and won time of possession by 11 minutes. So much for UCF's attempt to break into the CFP.
SMU 41, TCU 38: SMU topped one of the better defenses in the country by beating the then #25 ranked Horned Frogs. My rushing yards differential analytic was blown out of the water here because TCU was +118 and only had a 10 second time of possession advantage.
Temple 22, Buffalo 38: A week after beating #21 Maryland, the Owls lost to Buffalo. -2 in the turnover department and a -186 rushing yards differential will often do that to a team.
Stars of the week
Shane Buechele, QB, SMU: He helped the Mustangs upset TCU by completing 67.6% of his passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns. At 4-0, SMU is off to its best start since 1984.
Jalen McCleskey, WR, Tulane: McClesky caught the game-winning 53 yard touchdown. He also had three other catches for 70 yards and another touchdown. He accounted for 64.5% of their receiving yards and two of their three receiving touchdowns.
Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF: The Golden Knights lost, but it wasn't through any fault of Davis who totaled 10 catches for 151 yards and two touchdowns. I'm keeping an eye on this kid as he is draft eligible after this season.
Four games to watch this week
Navy @ Memphis
SMU @ USF
UConn @ UCF
UH @ UNT
Three players to watch this week
Clayton Tune, UH: With King redshirtting, Tune is now the starter. Going on the road to Denton for his third career start will be very telling as to how the rest of the season will go.
Memphis Defense: Navy averages 371.5 yards per game rushing. The Tigers' defense gives up 116.3 yards rushing per game. Something has to give.
Shane Buechele, SMU: Can the once highly touted quarterback lead SMU to a 5-0 start with a road win vs USF?
As we barrel toward Opening Day which is now less than four weeks away, so far it’s been largely a case of no news is good news at Astros’ spring training. Meaning no major injuries to key players, no controversies brewing. There are numerous question marks that can’t truly be answered until we get into the games that count, such as how will Jose Altuve fare as a left fielder. The most exciting thing to happen over the first week of Grapefruit League games would probably be the two-home run game from top prospect Cam Smith, he of the Kyle Tucker trade. Both came off minor league caliber pitchers, but so what. Smith turned 22 years old last Saturday, the ideal is that he forces his way to the big leagues by the end of this season.
A strong majority of players who go on to greatness in Major League Baseball get to the big leagues before they turn 23. I spoke to this with Astros-specific perspective this week during an episode of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. The ten greatest offensive players in franchise history as measured by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric are: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jose Altuve, Lance Berkman, Cesar Cedeno, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Alex Bregman, Joe Morgan, and Bob Watson. Eight of those ten debuted in the majors at 22 years old or younger. Cedeno was 19! Morgan and Watson were 20. Wynn and Altuve were 21. Biggio, Bagwell, and Bregman were 22. That leaves Cruz and Berkman as the exceptions. “Cheo” debuted with the Cardinals and didn’t get to the Astros’ organization until he was 27. Berkman arrived at 23. He should have been up sooner but was backlogged in 1998 behind a fabulous outfield of Moises Alou, Carl Everett, and Derek Bell, with youngster Richard Hidalgo as the top reserve, while first base was manned by Bagwell in the heart of his prime.
The point is, special talents should be fast-tracked and/or fast-track themselves to the Major Leagues. There are numerous exceptions (team mistakes, late bloomers), but a very high percentage of eventual big stars get to The Show at a young age. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout entered at 19. Ronald Acuna Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Jose Ramirez did so at 20. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez were 21. Not all tear it up immediately the way Yordan did upon his promotion in 2019, but rare tools and talents merit accelerated opportunity. The focus here is on hitters, but this isn’t a bad spot to note that among the four greatest pitchers ever to hurl for the Astros, only Randy Johnson was older than 22 when he started (25 as a notoriously raw and wild Montreal Expo). Nolan Ryan was a 19-year-old New York Met, Roger Clemens a 21-year-old Boston Red Sox, and Justin Verlander a 22-year-old Detroit Tiger,
This is not predicting mega-stardom or a plaque in Cooperstown for Cam Smith, but if the Astros have such a player in what is presently a lousy farm system overall, the odds overwhelmingly favor Smith being that guy. He should be ticketed for double-A Corpus Christi to start this season after having had just 96 at bats in single-A and 19 at AA in the Cubs’ system after being drafted last July. Should Smith excel with the Hooks, it’s not preposterous to see him getting to the Astros over the summer, especially given the shaky state of the big club’s outfield going into the 2025 campaign. Plenty of players have skipped over AAA. While Smith was drafted as a third baseman, unless the Astros grow offensively desperate enough to move Isaac Paredes to second base, Smith’s fastest path to Daikin Park right now might lead to right field. Coming off a relentlessly bad 2024, it’s make-or-break time for Chas McCormick. Chas is making three-point-four million dollars this season and turns 30 in April. If he is not a heckuva lot better this year, there is no way the Astros are bringing him back at an even bigger salary number in 2026.
Jacob Melton is another outfield prospect, but he’s already 24 years old and has yet to show any sort of elite hitting traits in the minors. Melton looms as a cheaper replacement for Jake Meyers in center.
Those who will ultimately be great only have time siphoned from their careers when not brought up as soon as reasonable. Of course there is risk of unfulfilled potential or straight up bust status. If early failure crushes a player, he wasn’t headed for greatness anyway.
On the upswing
Closing aside: a pinging endorsement for the Astros’ Annual College Classic Friday through Sunday. The reigning national champion Tennessee Volunteers and runner-up Texas A&M Aggies head the field. Rice, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona fill out what is always an excellent six-team event. With gorgeous weather forecast through the weekend the roof should be open throughout. RIGHT?
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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