Different View

There are more questions than answers right now for this Astros team

You won't make a living arguing sports with Charlie Pallilo but I had an issue with an article he wrote last week on this very website. He didn't write the headline but it said that the Astros were heading into spring training with very few questions to answer.

I beg to differ.

True, there aren't a lot of roster spots up for grabs and the Astros are a heavy favorite to win the A.L. West again but there are a lot more storylines than the fifth starter and Carlos Correa's back.

I'm not nearly as bullish on this team as I was the past two years. Again, they will win the A.L. West and be back in the postseason but that's not the standard anymore. I'm not sure this team has done enough this offseason to catch the Red Sox and they were probably passed by the Yankees who have been extremely busy.

Let's start with the Yankees. They lost starter Sonny Gray who was a disaster for them and replaced him with James Paxton who is one of the best lefties in baseball and an Astro killer. They also re-signed J.A. Happ who was 7-0 since they picked him up last year from the Blue Jays. They lost David Robertson from their bullpen but added Adam Ottavino who was dominant in Colorado. He should be lights out in New York. They also added D.J. LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki to fill in while Didi Gregorius heals from Tommy John surgery. He should be back before August.

That was a 100 win team. They are better, possibly much better.

The Red Sox didn't do much this offseason. They didn't have to. They won 108 games and the world title. They re-signed Nathan Eovaldi, which was huge. They lost closer Craig Kimbrel but I'm not sure they won't be better off. If Ryan Brasier can't handle it Matt Barnes can. They have both got closer stuff.

The Astros solved their closer dilemma last trade deadline. Roberto Osuna is firmly planted in that role. That's the only sure thing in a bullpen that was a disaster again last postseason. Ryan Pressly is solid and will be counted on in big late game situations. Otherwise it's a crap shoot. Hector Rondon wasn't even on the LDS roster and wasn't happy about it. Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski weren't invited to the party either. Will Harris was awful for three months last year but righted the ship and made the playoff roster only to see that go poorly once he was there. Josh James may or may not be counted on to give them bullpen innings. He could be a starter. Either way the longer he stayed in the game last year the worse it got but he was young and going through it all for the first time. He will hopefully be better. Lord knows he has the "stuff." Cionel Perez will take Tony Sipp's spot as the token lefty.

Meanwhile 3/5 of the rotation is gone. Verlander and Cole are the only ones back. They're arguably the best one-two punch in baseball but they only start 40% of the games. The other 60% is very much up in the air.

One thing we know for sure, Collin McHugh will be the third starter to begin the season. That's a two-fold problem. One, it takes him out of a role where he excelled, middle relief. Two, it puts more pressure on a bullpen that will be taxed this season. McHugh will have to build up plenty of stamina to go more than 6 innings. Last year he went 3 innings twice. In '16, his last year as a starter he averaged less than 5 2/3 innings per start.

Wade Miley is your fouth starter. He'd been sturdy up until last year but he made only 16 starts and threw 80 innings. Hopefully he will be able to make all his starts but that doesn't mean he will be effective. He's a below .500 pitcher in his career but he's never worked with Brent Strom before. That seems to be magical for most guys.

Brad Peacock and Josh James will fight for the last spot. The other will head to the pen. In '16 Peacock averaged less than 5 1/3 innings per start. If Josh James is the fifth starter who knows how patient AJ will be with him when he struggles into the 4th, 5th and 6th innings.

All of this means that the bullpen will play an even bigger role than ever. By the postseason you can bet that it'll be overworked. You'll need the bullpen for some 500 innings. That's about what they gave you last year. We've already seen what that means in all three of these recent postseasons. There has been very little left in the tank. Even when they won it all it was only because the starters came in and saved the day.

Offensively the Astros will probably be one of baseball's best. It fell off last year with injuries to Altuve and Correa. Hopefully those two will be back to '17 form. You can bet on Altuve but Correa isn't a sure thing. Backs are tricky and I'm not not so sure some of it wasn't in his head. He looked tentative and overmatched at times. That can't happen this year.

Other than that you'll have to live with a dead spot in the lineup from the catchers but I'll be interested to see what Tyler White can do with more at bats. Michael Brantley will be a welcome addition. Kyle Tucker will get another shot. Hopefully he makes more of it. He actually hit into some poor luck. Tony Kemp deserves more time. Maybe he'll platoon at DH. Aledmys Diaz has a lot to prove if he's going to replace Marwin. Alex Bregman had a huge offseason. He needs to validate his breakout year with another big one this season.

Again, this team will be back in the postseason. The A.L. West got weaker with Seattle's fire sale. But that's not enough. Not anymore. It's parade or bust. To get back there Jeff Luhnow is going to have to make a lot more noise at the trade deadline than he did this offseason.

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The Astros now have several arms they can depend on. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Most people considered the Houston Astros bullpen to be the team's biggest hole. Considering Will Harris and Hector Rondon left in the offseason, while no veterans were brought in to replace them, Joe Smith opted out of the shortened COVID season, and Roberto Osuna threw less than 60 total pitches, it makes sense that the 'pen would be thin. Even former bullpen mainstays like Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, and Josh James missed most or some of the season with injury. The exodus of talent and numerous trips to the IL presented some young arms with an opportunity, and a handful of them seized those opportunities.

Ryan Pressly

Once Osuna went down for the season, Pressly stepped in as the team's closer, and he did an admirable job. He converted 12 of 16 save opportunities, had a 3.43 ERA, 12.43 K/9, and 3.00 BB/9. He wasn't lights out by any means, but he certainly wasn't poor.

The advanced numbers say the Astros should be comfortable with Pressly as their closer next season. Pressly's 2.74 xERA (Expected ERA) was lower than his ERA, and same with his 2.81 FIP. Pressly was even better in his 7.1 postseason innings, when he had a 2.45 ERA and 1.42 FIP.

Pressly has two traits the Astros envy:

  • Velocity
  • Spin

Pressly was in the 99th percentile in curveball spin. Only Garrett Richards and Lucas Sims had higher spin rates on their curveballs. He was also in the 95th percentile in fastball spin, and he pairs that with average fastball velocity of 94.6 MPH.

All-in-all, Pressly does a great job of limiting damage and free bases while missing bats. His walk rate spiked in 2020, but it was back in line with his career norms by the postseason, signaling that the walk issues could be tied to the quick ramp-up of Spring Training 2.0. Aside from that, the numbers being as high as they are (which aren't even that high), seems to stem from some bad luck.

Enoli Paredes

Paredes burst onto the scene in 2020, bailing the Astros out of tough situations with electric stuff and moxie. By season's end, he was the team's second most reliable reliever behind Pressly.

Was Paredes' breakout a fluke or is he legit?

Similar to Pressly, Paredes is elite in two categories: velocity and spin.

Paredes was in the 90th percentile in curveball spin and 75th percentile in fastball spin. His 95.7 MPH fastball was in the 86th percentile. Put simply, Paredes has some electric stuff.

He also has a trait that new Astros General Manager James Click likely envies: a unique look.

Paredes has a release point just 5.1 ft off the group. He's an old school "drop-and-drive" pitcher, so despite being 5'11" tall, the ball comes out of his hand nearly a foot lower than that to the ground. His fastball explodes out of his hand with incredible life, and it's why he got so many swings-and-misses on a fastball that he threw 68% of the time.

Now, it isn't all good news. Paredes' 5.76 xERA is significantly higher than the 3.05 ERA he actually posted. His 3.63 FIP is closer, but it's still higher than how he actually performed. His 4.79 BB/9 is high.

All that being said, Paredes is only 25, has incredible stuff, a great attitude, and the best pitching coach in baseball to aid his development. As he continues to develop his secondary pitches, he should continue to be a reliable arm in the back of the Astros bullpen.

Blake Taylor

Blake Taylor was another young arm that entered Dusty Baker's circle of trust by the end of the season. Acquired in the Jake Marisnick trade, Taylor was considered an afterthought, but by season's end he was considered a great parting gift from Jeff Luhnow.

Taylor pitched his way into the hearts of Astros fans with a 2.18 ERA in 20.2 IP. He also had a 1.59 ERA in 5.2 postseason innings. Taylor's 2.99 xERA suggests his 2020 performance was legit, while his 4.55 FIP suggests he may have gotten lucky. Regardless, he's an interesting case.

Taylor's success comes from an ability to miss barrels. He induced tons of weak contact, as his Average Exit Velocity Against, xBA, and xSLG were all in the 94th percentile or better. He induced tons of weak contact, as he was 30th amongst relievers in soft hit % and 12th in hard hit %.

It is a little perplexing how he does it. Taylor is roughly average in fastball velocity, and he's exactly average in fastball spin. Same with his breaking pitches. Taylor doesn't have unique pitch usage either. He threw his fastball 76.5% of the time and his slider 22.6% of the time, essentially making him a one pitch guy. Most hitters are eliminating his slider and changeup (he threw it 0.9%) before they step into the box. Most hitters would salivate over an at-bat with those odds at average velocity, but hitters didn't have success.

Taylor doesn't do it with pinpoint control either. He walked 5.23 per 9, and he certainly didn't live on the edges.

He didn't experience success in a stereotypical Astros way, as they usually rely on velocity and spin, but his ability to induce soft contact is impressive. Similar to Paredes, there are reasons to believe Taylor can develop and continue to get better.

Andre Scrubb

Andre Scrubb is yet another arm that didn't figure to factor into the Astros 2020 plans, but by the end of the postseason, was one of the more trustworthy relievers on the roster.

Scrubb is closer to the mold of the stereotype Astro pitcher. While he doesn't have overwhelming velocity -- he was exactly average -- he does have slightly above average fastball spin and well above average curveball spin. The lower fastball velocity and spin probably stems from the fact that he doesn't throw a true four-seam fastball, opting for a cutter instead.

Scrubb is heavy on curveball usage, and he was nearly 50/50 between his cutter and his curveball. The cutter and curveball play well off of one another, as one pitch has some glove side run to it while the other is essentially a true 12-6 curveball.

Scrubb didn't rack up lots of strikeouts, yet another league average category for him, but he did rack up a ton of soft contact. He was in the 99th percentile in Hard Hit % and 92nd percentile in Barrel %.

The .195 xBA and .298 xSLG against him explain his 1.90 ERA. He limited damage so well that, despite being average in totally missing bats and walking batters left and right, he usually left the game having not allowed anyone to score.

Both xERA and FIP agree that Scrubb got lucky, as xERA has him at 4.06, while FIP has his at 4.25. Regardless, those two numbers aren't even all that terrible for a middle reliever, especially one that had never pitched above AA prior to 2020. He has to lock in on his command, as a pitcher that walks 7.61 per 9 will never have a long track record of success. If he can learn to be around the plate more, he's another arm the Astros can count on for the long haul, as he is 25-years-old like Taylor and Paredes.

Brooks Raley

Brooks Raley entered the 2020 season with the Cincinnati Reds before being DFA'd after just 4.0 IP. The Astros liked what they saw enough to trade away a PTBNL for the DFA'd left-hander, and he performed well enough that the Astros will likely exercise his $2M club option for 2021.

What did the Astros see that they liked so much? Well… what if I told you he spins the ball well?

Raley was in the 93rd percentile in fastball spin and 94th percentile in slider spin. Brooks Raley doesn't throw hard, as he only averaged 90.1 MPH on his fastball, but he does command the ball well, as he had a 2.70 BB/9.

Raley relies most heavily on his slider and cutter, and he does a good job at hitting that outside corner to lefties. In fact, lefties batted .121 with a .194 SLG off of Raley. That's an impressive platoon advantage. Raley induces a ton of soft contact. He actually had the best Average Exit Velocity Against in all of MLB. He was in the 99th percentile in Hard Hit % Against. He was in the 95th percentile in xBA. He was in the 84th percentile in xSLG. Guys just didn't hit the ball hard off of him.

The other impressive part is that, despite barely throwing 90 MPH, he missed a lot of bats too. He was in the 87th percentile in MLB in K%. His 12.2 K/9 was the same as Kenley Jansen's.

While Raley's 4.95 ERA is far from elite, four of the 11 runs he gave up on the season were in a Cincinnati uniform. He had a 3.94 ERA as an Astro, and his 3.11 xERA and 3.94 FIP suggest his performance warranted better. The quick turnaround as an Astro likely stemmed from pitch usage. While he was a Red, Raley threw his cutter 59.1% of the time and his slider 1.5% of the time. In August, when he was an Astro for the full month, he threw his cutter 38% of the time and his slider 18.7% of the time. Brent Strom loves spin, and when you spin it and command it as well as Raley does, he is going to tell you to throw it more.

Look ahead

The Astros found five relievers worthy of roster spots in 2021. Josh James had a poor season in 2020, and his time to put it together is running out, but he still has an intriguing combination of velocity and spin. James battled injuries in 2020, and the poor performance could be tied to that.

On top of those five arms and a possible sixth in James depending on health, the Astros will add Joe Smith back to the fold in 2021. Smith is a reliable veteran arm. While the sidewinder doesn't bring the typical velocity or spin to the table like the rest of the Astros arms, he does bring something to the table that James Click will bring with him from Tampa Bay...funky looks.

Here were the release points of Rays pitchers from the catcher's point of view versus the Astros in the playoffs (Chart via MLB.com).

Now...here's the Astros bullpen pitchers discussed in this story.

There's not exactly a ton of difference. Now look at the element Smith brings to the table.

Houston does need to add a couple of bullpen arms in the offseason, but they already have six or seven they can rely on. Look for Click and Co. to add arms with diverse release points, plus velocity, and plus spin.

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