CALL IT FATE

A true team of destiny? Yankees never had a chance against Houston

Justin Verlander and Jose Altuve are headed to the World Series. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

If Houston wouldn't let a hurricane beat it, you think the New York Yankees stood a chance? 

Poor Yankees ... they weren't beaten by 25 baseball players. They lost to an entire city picking itself up off the canvas. They lost to a tidal wave of emotion, an unstoppable force that would not be denied. They lost to fans who pulled out of their driveways, past all their possessions reduced to debris on their front lawns, and headed to Minute Maid Park to cheer their Astros. 

This team doesn't just wear a patch that says "HoustonStrong." They ARE the embodiment of Houston, the most diverse, resilient, boldest city in the U.S. Nowhere will you find a team that looks more like its hometown. Our second baseman is the smallest player in the lineup ... and the best player in the world. How can you root against that guy? Our first baseman is a Cuban defector with hair like the top of a pineapple. Our centerfielder is bi-racial and climbs outfield walls to rob home runs. Our shortstop is from Puerto Rico. He learned how to speak English as a kid because he knew ESPN would want to interview him one day. Our right fielder is a self-described, mullet-wearing "down south redneck"  in Captain America underpants. He comes to bat to a recording of wrestler Ric Flair yelling "Wooo!" Ever hear 40,000 baseball fans yelling "Wooo" in return? Our third baseman is a Jew from New Mexico, of all places. Our championship series MVP is the hottest pitcher in the game, the highest-paid player on the team and his fiancée is a Sports Illustrated swimsuit cover girl. He's doing all right. Our manager has a degree in psychology from Stanford and needs it. Fearless leader is smart.  

How can you not love this team? Lance McCullers was pretty awesome in Game 7, right? You know what he does in his spare time? He rescues homeless dogs and cats. George Springer made a spectacular leaping catch, two of them, last week. You know what he did after Hurricane Harvey struck Houston? He arranged for his hometown in Connecticut to send a caravan of trucks packed with needed supplies to Houston. Springer also holds fundraisers to send kids who stutter to summer camp. Astros owner Jim Crane donated $4 million for hurricane relief from his own pocket. 

What's the word ... fate? Kismet?  Destiny? Karma? Whatever you want to call it, this team will not, cannot be denied. The 2017 Houston Astros are a force of nature stronger than any hurricane. After all we've been through in Houston, we deserve the pure joy of Astros baseball. 

There were doubters, for sure. The Yankees were supposed to vanquish the Astros, ending the dream, especially after sweeping Houston three straight in New York. Aaron Judge had emerged from his home run slump. The Yanks needed only one win at Minute Maid Park. 

The Yankees are used to winning. It's sort of their thing. They're the winningest, most storied franchise in U.S. sports. Their name means excellence, like Babe Ruth and Cadillac, the gold standard. When a team dominates in another sport, "they're the New York Yankees of this or that." 

There are 27 World Series flags flapping over Yankee Stadium. Minute Maid Park has none. Surely the young, inexperienced Astros would crumble at the Yankees' feet.  

That's just the way it is, or was supposed to be. Back in the '50s, New York was so dominant that a book called The Year the Yankees Lost the Pennant hit the best-seller list. The plot had a long-suffering baseball fan selling his soul to the devil so his team could beat the Yankees, if only once. The book was turned into a Broadway musical and movie called Damn Yankees. 

It's time for a remake, because 2017 belongs to Houston - our Year the Yankees Lost the Pennant. 

The team motto this year was "Earn History," and they sure did. But their work isn't done. It's on to Los Angeles and the World Series. Say it again ... World Series! 

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The numbers show a concerning trend. Composite image by Brandon Strange

Michael Brantley signed a two-year, $30M deal with the Houston Astros prior to 2019 to little fanfare. The then 32 year-old was coming off of yet another injury riddled season with the Cleveland Indians, and the signing was seen as a safe gamble (if there is such a thing). Brantley would produce if healthy, but would he ever be healthy?

Brantley went on to have two of the healthiest seasons of his career, putting up big numbers for the Astros. Across two seasons, Brantley slashed .309/.370/.497 with a 134 wRC+. The Astros got the best version of Brantley, who had slashed .295/.351/.430 with a 114 wRC+ during his tenure with the Indians.

Brantley is set to hit the market once again, and the Astros face a couple of questions. One, is Brantley worth bringing back? Two, is Brantley worth a qualifying offer?

Hard Hit % - 37.3%

Barrel % - 4.9%

K % - 15%

BB % - 9.1%

Chase % - 20.1%

(All numbers from 2020)

Brantley's greatest skill is controlling the strike zone. He forces pitchers to come to him, and he's only getting better at it. His chase % was the best of his career, and it was 6% better than his 26% mark in 2019. Brantley was t-19th in MLB in chase % with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Yasmani Grandal. Brantley combines this enviable level of plate discipline with another enviable trait: he doesn't swing and miss. His 16.4% whiff % was in the 93rd percentile of MLB. By comparison, Acuña and Grandal were in the 29th and 26th percentiles respectively. Those two don't chase often because they keyhole one spot that they know they can drive. Brantley forces pitchers to come in the zone similar to those two, but he usually doesn't swing and miss when the pitchers do come to him.

However, there are some alarming trends for a hitter now well onto the wrong side of 30.

His 15% K% was the highest it's been since 2011, when he was a 24-year-old in his first full big league season. It was a 4.6% increase in K% over last season. Brantley's 16% whiff % is far and away the worst it's been in his career, and it's 5.6% worse than it was in 2019. That 5.6% is the difference between swinging-and-missing the second least in MLB and swinging-and-missing the 11th least. That's a steep drop over one season. Remember, Brantley chased pitches outside the zone the least he ever had in his career. That increase in whiff % mostly came on strikes. His contact % on strikes dropped 4.8% from 2019.

A big indicator of age is the inability to catch up with the fastball. Brantley's 13.2% whiff rate against fastballs in 2020 was the worst it's been in his career. The second worst? 7.5% back in 2011. On the surface, Brantley performed fine on fastballs in 2020. He batted .295 with a .438 SLG against them. But it gets a little uglier just one level deeper. Brantley's xBA on fastballs was .242. His xSLG was .410.

Compared to his 2019 performance against fastballs, it was quite the downturn. Brantley batted .320 against fastballs in 2019 with a .311 xBA. He slugged .501 with a xSLG of .506. Lastly, Brantley had an 89.3 average exit velocity on fastballs in 2019 compared to 87.4 in 2020. The downturn in fastball productivity is alarming.

Brantley performed great against breaking balls and offspeed pitches in 2020, but once pitchers realize that he can't stay on the fastball like he used to, Brantley will be setup for failure, not success.

Brantley doesn't run well either. His average sprint speed of 26.2 ft/s was in the 34th percentile in MLB. Brantley did perform well defensively by nearly every metric, but he was in the 39th percentile in outfielder jump. He really can't afford a downturn defensively, and with Yordan Alvarez returning as the full time DH next season, they won't have the ability to give Brantley the occasional day off his legs at DH

The qualifying offer has been set at $18.9M for the 2020 offseason. Considering Houston's lack of draft picks due to their punishment for technological sign-stealing, recouping some of that draft capital would be helpful for the club. $18.9M would represent a $3.9M raise for Brantley, which is exactly the price of not being able to bring back Brad Peacock.

It's unlikely that Brantley will regress so quickly that he'll be unplayable in 2021. He will likely be a productive ballplayer. Considering that the Astros can afford to pay the raise in salary if he accepts the qualifying offer, it is worth giving it to him. If he declines the QO, however, it isn't worth giving him a multi-year deal. There are too many signs of regression, and anything more than one year is a risk. If Brantley demands a multi-year deal, the Astros should let him walk and take the draft pick compensation.

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