A.J. HOFFMAN

UFC 229 preview: McGregor-Khabib fight highlights stacked card

UFC 229 preview: McGregor-Khabib fight highlights stacked card
Connor McGregor is back. Isaac Brekken/Getty Images

Well, fight fans, we finally made it. October 6th is the day we have all been waiting for. UFC 229 has arrived, and marks the long awaited return of The Notorious Conor McGregor after a lengthy layoff, facing maybe his toughest opponent to date. Without further ado, let’s preview the card. 

The main event is for the lightweight title, a belt once held by (and still carried by) Conor McGregor (21-3). Khabib Nurmagomedov (26-0), however, is the rightful champion and intends on remaining on top of the 155 lb. world. The matchup is fascinating, as these two fighters are about as different as can be in every way. McGregor, of course, is a dynamic striker with serious knockout power. He moves incredibly well, and is difficult to hit. Nurmagomedov is a world class grappler, both in his ability to chain together takedowns and his ability to control on the ground once he has top position. Khabib has never lost a round in his MMA career. He has never been knocked down in his MMA career. The pressure, however, falls squarely on Khabib. A loss here would drop him down the ladder, and would likely exclude him from ever having a matchup of this caliber again. A win, however, launches him to superstardom, and forces the UFC to treat him (and pay him) as an A-side fighter. The odds of McGregor winning a decision are incredibly slim. If he is going to beat Nurmagomedov, he will need to land a big punch that stumbles or starches Khabib. Khabib will want to get the fight to the ground, and he has not failed to do so yet in his MMA career. Neither fighter has ever faced an opponent who presents such danger, which makes this fight a must watch. 

The co-main event features Tony Ferguson (23-3) taking on Anthony Pettis (21-7). Ferguson, who is on a 10-fight winning streak, feels he was the odd man out with the return of McGregor to the division. Ferguson was supposed to get his shot at Khabib at UFC 223, but a knee injury sidelined him until now. Pettis is a former champion who had lost his mojo, but may have rediscovered it in his submission win over Michael Chiesa. Ferguson, a rightful favorite, can not afford to take Pettis lightly. Pettis at his best is extremely dangerous, and Ferguson is likely next in line for a title shot if he survives here. 

A light heavyweight battle between Ovince St. Preux (23-11) and Dominick Reyes (9-0) is particularly intriguing. St. Preux lost “top prospect” status when he lost 4 out of 5 between August 2015 and February 2017. He has been on a tear since, winning 4 of his last 5. Reyes is a wrecking machine. Of his 9 fights, only one has been out of the first round. That said, what he can do when put into deep waters with a higher-level opponent. This fight should let us know what kind of a contender Reyes is, and will tell us if OSP is back in the 205 lb. mix.

Houston’s Derrick Lewis (20-5) will face Alexander Volkov (30-6) in a battle of top heavyweight contenders. Volkov, a former Bellator champion, has quickly worked his way up the UFC ladder. A finish of former champion Fabricio Werdum solidified him as a title contender. Lewis, who at one point had retired from the sport, came back to score a win over Francis Ngannou in a confusing and ugly fight. Lewis claimed that he hurt his back early in the fight, and has now flared up in multiple fights. It remains a concern going forward. Volkov is unlikely to try to wrestle Lewis to avoid a standup battle, so this fight should make for some legit fireworks. 

The prelims feature Sergio Pettis, Jussier da Silva, Vicente Luque, Scott Holtzman, and a battle of veterans between Gray Maynard and Nik Lentz. 

Enjoy the fights! 

PREDICTIONS:

Nurmagomedov by TKO

Ferguson by DEC

Saint Preux by TKO

Lewis by TKO

Waterson by DEC

Da Silva by DEC

Luque by KO

Evinger by DEC

Alves by DEC

Kunitskaya by DEC

Lentz by DEC

LaFlare by DEC

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome