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UFC 230: A feast for the Black Beast

UFC 230: A feast for the Black Beast
Derrick Lewis of Houston will get his shot at a title. Harry How/Getty Images

On Nov. 3, the double champion Daniel D.C. Cormier takes on Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis for the UFC heavyweight title at the famed Madison Square Garden.

Bet the house on black. Specifically, bet the house on Black Beast. Sure, Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis opens as an 8-to-1 underdog in his fight against heavyweight champion Cormier. Sure, Cormier just knocked out the most dominant heavyweight champion in the history of the UFC. And sure, Lewis miraculously survived a fourteen minute beating just three weeks ago. Who cares? It doesn’t matter.Lewis is unstoppable.  Lewis is immovable. And against all odds, he’s proved time and time again that he Just. Can’t. Lose! (Except that time he lost).

Using the letter “H” as a tribute to Houston, the city Lewis so proudly represents, this writer will provide real and not-at-all satirical evidence to show how The Black Beast feasts on Nov. 3.

History

For Lewis, this fight is personal. Cormier and Lewis are no strangers. Behind the scenes at UFC 226, Lewis vowed to knock out  Cormier. The reason? Disrespecting the Black Beast’s sacred cow. Popeyes Chicken.

 

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The greatest fights in history come packaged with stories that can’t be matched by any film or novel. The Thrilla in Manilla. McGregor vs. Diaz. When these two fighters cross paths on that fateful night, their destinies will intertwine like a Popeyes mixed combo meal. Derrick Lewis vs. Daniel Cormier. Spicy vs. Plain. Warring in a contest to prove who’s breast- AND THIGH WILL BE DONE.

Heart

A beast isn’t known for its skill. It’s not known for its smarts. It’s known for its heart. And that’s what Lewis has. An enlarged heart. In each of his most notable wins, Lewis lands a spectacular KO, but not before getting beat up and exhausted first. He’s the first to admit he has cardio problems. But with heart the size of Lewis’, there’s simply no room for lungs.

How will heart factor into this fight? We simply need to analyze the last of either fighters’ bouts. Just three weeks ago, the Russian contender Alexander Volkov hacked away at Lewis like it was a U.S. presidential election. With seconds left into the fight, Lewis summoned his heart, and put a whoopin’ on a PutinCormier’s last fight? Moved up a weight class to KO then-heavyweight king within one round, extending his undefeated heavyweight streak while capturing a simultaneous belt. No heart whatsoever.

Heat

It’s a tale as old as time in Mixed Martial Arts: styles make fights. DC owns an Olympic medal in Wrestling, and can send heavyweights flying. Lewis’ grappling consists of… waiting to stand back up. Advantage: DERRICK LEWIS.

Lewis wins this match up flat out, as proved by sports science. In his fight against Volkov, Lewis scored a late knockout with seconds left to go. In his post-fight interview, Lewis famously dropped his shorts and declared to the world, “My balls was hot.”

Great balls of fire

As an accredited analyst, I must correlate the two: Derrick Lewis gets stronger as his balls get hotter. My professional prediction: Cormier outwrestles Derrick Lewis for four rounds, before Lewis’ balls reach a fiery temperature. Unable to clinch or grapple Lewis without being scorched, DC is forced to stand, and The Black Beast sends Cormier into retirement with one final Popeye's punch.

Official pick: Lewis via fifth round hot and spicy KO.

 

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Houston must improve in close games down the stretch and into October. Composite Getty Image.

While holding one’s breath that for a change the Astros aren’t publicly grossly underestimating an injury’s severity with Jose Altuve having missed the last game and a half with “right side discomfort…”

The Astros averting a sweep vs. Oakland Thursday was in no way a must-win, but getting the win allowed a mini sigh of relief. The Astros are NOT in the process of choking. Could they collapse? Sure that’s possible. Also possible is that they’ve just been in one more ebb phase in a season of ebb and flow. They certainly have left the door ajar for the Seattle Mariners to swipe the American League West, but with the M's simply not looking good enough to walk through that door the Astros remain in commanding position. The Astros made a spectacular charge from 10 games behind to grab the division lead. But there was a lot of runway left when the Astros awoke June 19th 10 games in arrears. September 3 the Astros arose with a comfy six game lead over the M’s. With Seattle blowing a 4-1 eighth inning lead in a 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday night, heading into Friday night the Astros' advantage is back up to four and a half games despite the Astros having lost six of their last nine games and having gone just 10-12 over their last 22 games. Not a good stretch but nothing freefalling about it.

While the Mariners have the remainder of their four-game series vs. the dead in the water Rangers this weekend, the Astros play three at the lousy Los Angeles Angels. The Astros should take advantage of the Halos, with whom they also have a four-game series at Minute Maid Park next weekend. Since the All-Star break, only the White Sox have a worse record than the Angels 19-31 mark (the White Sox are 6-43 post-break!). Two of the three starting pitchers the Angels will throw this weekend will be making their third big league starts. To begin next week the Astros are in San Diego for a three-game-set against a Padres club which is flat better than the Astros right now. That does not mean the Astros can’t take that series. The Mariners meanwhile will be still at home, for three vs. the Yankees.

There are some brutal Astros’ statistics that largely explain why this is merely a pretty good team and not more. As I have noted before, it is a fallacy that the best teams are usually superior in close games. But the Astros have been pathetic in close games. There used to be a joke made about Sammy Sosa that he could blow you out, but he couldn’t beat you. Meaning being that when the score was 6-1, 8-3 or the like Sammy would pad his stats with home runs and runs batted in galore. But in a tight game, don’t count on Sammy to come through very often. In one-run games the Astros are 15-26, in two-run games they are 10-14. In games that were tied after seven innings they are 3-12. In extra innings they are 5-10. The good news is, all those realities mean nothing when the postseason starts. So long as you’re in the postseason. In games decided by three or more runs the Astros have pummeled the opposition to the tune of 53 wins and 28 losses.

General Manager Dana Brown isn’t an Executive of the Year candidate, but overall he’s been fine this season. Without the Yusei Kikuchi trade deadline acquisition the Astros would likely barely lead the AL West. Brown’s biggest offseason get, Victor Caratini, has done very solid work in his part-time role. Though he has tapered off notably the last month and change, relief pitcher Tayler Scott was a fabulous signing. Scrap heap pickups Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward, and Kaleb Ort have all made contributions. However…

Dana. Dana! You made yourself look very silly with comments this week somewhat scoffing at people being concerned with or dismissive of Justin Verlander’s ability to be a meaningful playoff contributor. Brown re-sang a ridiculous past tune, the “check the back of his baseball card” baloney. Dana, did you mean like the back of Jose Abreu’s baseball card? Perhaps Brown has never seen those brokerage ads in which at the end in fine print and/or in rapidly spoken words “past performance is no guarantee of future results” always must be included. Past (overall career) performance as indicative of future results for a 41-year-old pitcher who has frequently looked terrible and has twice missed chunks of this season to two different injuries is absurd. That Verlander could find it in time is plausible. That of course he’ll find it? Absolutely not. His next two starts are slotted to be against the feeble Angels, so even if the results are better, it won’t mean “JV IS BACK!”

Presuming they hold on to win the division, the Astros’ recent sub-middling play means they have only very faint hope of avoiding having to play the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Barring a dramatic turn over the regular season’s final fortnight, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are the obvious choices to start games one and two. If there is a game three, it is one game do or die. Only a fool would think Verlander the right man for that assignment. No one should expect Brown to say “Yeah, JV is likely finished as a frontline starter.” But going to the “back of the baseball card” line was laughable. Father Time gets us all eventually. Verlander has an uphill climb extricating himself from Father Time’s grasp.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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