A.J. HOFFMAN

UFC 230 preview: Lewis vs. Cormier headlines piecemeal card

UFC 230 preview: Lewis vs. Cormier headlines piecemeal card
Derrick Lewis highlights the UFC 230 card. Harry How/Getty Images

This isn’t the UFC 230 we had all hoped for, but it will have to do. After several potential headliners fell apart, the UFC was able to convince Derrick Lewis to take on Daniel Cormier for the heavyweight title, just a few weeks after Lewis came back from the brink of defeat to beat Alexander Volkov in one of the wildest fights of 2018. Dustin Poirier was supposed to take on Nate Diaz, but Poirier was injured. The rematch between Luke Rockhold and Chris Weidman was booked for this card, but Rockhold was injured. So we are left with a thrown together card that should make for a good night of fights, if not many that are particularly consequential. 

The main event is for the heavyweight title that Lewis himself said less than a month ago “he didn’t have the cardio” to fight for. Money talks, though, and here we are with a tired Lewis (21-5) fighting the two-division champion, Daniel Cormier (21-1). Cormier isn’t totally fresh himself, as he is still recovering from an injured hand from his starching of Stipe Miocic. Let’s be serious here. Daniel Cormier is a -700 favorite in this fight for a reason. He is one of the greatest fighters of all time, coming off a massive win. Lewis, though, is not a walk-through fight. You can never let your guard down against him, because he can end the fight with one shot. Cormier will also have a hard time holding down Lewis, who has made “get up” one of the most effective moves in his arsenal. Cormier will need to employ a game plan similar to Mark Hunt’s against Lewis, which involved lots of angles and footwork to exhaust the “Black Beast” before he really turned it on. Cormier is clearly the more skilled fighter, but avoiding the fight-ending power of Lewis is not an easy thing to do for 25 minutes.

The co-main event features two middleweights who are trying to make one last run at the 185 lb. title. Chris Weidman (14-3) became an overnight superstar with his knockout of Anderson Silva. He won the rematch, but his career has been a roller coaster ride ever since. He went on a 3-fight skid, getting finished violently in all three fights. He has dealt with multiple injuries and fight cancellations, but broke through for a big victory over Kelvin Gastelum last summer. His opponent, Jacare Souza (25-6) is 39 years old, and if he is going to get a UFC title shot, he has to start that path with this fight. He has lost three fights since coming to the UFC in 2013. Razor thin, split-decision losses to Gastelum and Yoel Romero, sandwiching a head kick knockout at the hands of Robert Whittaker. Jacare is a master on the ground, but his skills have declined in recent years, along with his ability to take big shots. Stylistically, this matchup is very intriguing and should make for one of the best of the night. 

David Branch (22-4) was supposed to be fighting Souza on this card, but the Rockhold injury forced Souza up, and left Branch with a much less exciting opponent. He gets Jared Cannonier (10-4) who has competed at both heavyweight and light heavyweight previously and will make his middleweight debut here. Branch has shaken the reputation of being a one-dimensional fighter, and his striking has markedly improved. Cannonier is a dynamic (albeit not incredibly skilled) striker, but has proven to struggle mightily with takedown defense. That could be a real issue for him in this one. 

The difference in styles between Derek Brunson (18-6) and Israel Adesanya (14-0) make this another intriguing bout. Adesanya is a world-class kickboxer, who has worked hard at improving his defensive wrestling. Brunson was once a lay and pray wrestler, but has evolved (that word used loosely here) into a pressure fighter who hunts for knockouts. It would be wise of Brunson to keep Adesanya on his back, because if he finds himself charging wildly at or counterstriking with Adesanya, it will likely be a quick night for him. 

The prelims feature Ben Saunders, Sheymon Maraes, Sijara Eubanks and a fun matchup of Jason Knight and Jordan Rinaldi.

Enjoy the fights! 

PREDICTIONS:

Cormier by TKO

Souza by submission

Branch by decision

Marshman by decision

Adesanya by KO

Rinaldi by decision

Eubanks by decision 

Moraes by decision

Good by KO

Vannata by TKO

Burgos by TKO

Jackson by decision

De Lima by KO

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Should Brice Matthews be untradable now? Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images.

The phrase most associated with the late former Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders’ owner Al Davis was “Just win baby.” One has to think Al would strongly approve of the Houston Astros. Going to the fifth inning Sunday against the Mariners the Astros were facing a 3-0 deficit and staring at the prospect of being swept out of Seattle and having their American League West division lead slashed to just two games. Now after roaring from behind with 11 unanswered runs to take the series finale in the Emerald City, and then sweeping three games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Astros stand six games up with 60 games to go. So, if the Astros play just .500 ball the rest of the way (which would have them finish with 90 victories), the Mariners have to play .600 ball to catch them. If somehow the Astros are to maintain their season long win pace to the finish line they’d close with 95 wins, and the race is already over unless someone thinks the M’s are poised to uncork a finishing kick of 41-19 or better. It’s quite a pleasing perch from which the Astros survey the standings. Coupled with the freefalling Detroit Tigers having dropped nine of their last ten games, the Astros amazingly start this homestand sporting the best record in the entire American League. On the homestand they follow four games against the team with the second-worst record in the American League (Athletics) with three versus the team with the second-worst record in the National League (Nationals). I know, I know. There is fear of the Astros playing down to the competition, but that is not the way to look at it. A bad Major League team can beat a good team in a series at any time. If it happens it happens, but it wouldn’t mean it happened only because the Astros didn’t take their opponent seriously. This isn’t the NBA.

Trade deadline looming

Of course, It hasn’t been all good news with Isaac Paredes badly injuring a hamstring Sunday. Paredes could be back in three weeks (doubtful), he could miss the rest of the season. GET WELL SOON JEREMY PENA! Lance McCullers’s latest Injured List stint could be considered addition by subtraction for the Astros’ starting rotation. Whether impacted by his blister issue, Lance was lousy in four of his last five starts. So, one week from the trade deadline, if general manager Dana Brown has the ammo to get one deal done, where does he make the upgrade? The left-handed hitter everyone knows the Astros can use regardless of Yordan Alvarez’s status is a natural priority. With the Astros’ weak farm system it would seem difficult for Brown to put forth the winning offer for the top bats that could be in play. That probably rings even truer now, since if he wasn’t already untouchable, Brice Matthews may have cemented untouchable status by darn near winning the first two games of the Diamondbacks series by himself. Matthews is going to struggle mightily to hit for a good average if he can’t make notable improvement in the contact department, but the power is obvious, as is the athleticism in the field. The 23-year-old Matthews and 22-year-old Cam Smith (though presently mired in a three for 36 slump) are the clear (and right now only) two young shining beacons for the lineup’s future.

You can't have enough pitching

While Brandon Walter has been a revelation, a starting pitcher would make sense unless the decision is to hope Spencer Arrighetti and/or Cristian Javier can contribute meaningfully upon return to the big leagues, likely sometime next month. Going after a reliever or two may make more sense in terms of availability and transaction cost. Overall the Astros’ bullpen has been excellent, but Bryan Abreu is the only trustworthy right-handed option for Joe Espada. Back to Walter. Barely two months ago no way Walter himself would have believed he’d be where he is now. Nine starts since being summoned basically out of desperation, Walter has a 3.35 earned run average, and a stunning 13 to one strikeout-to-walk ratio with his 52 strikeouts against a measly four walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings. Walter has pitched fabulously in seven of his nine starts. He only has two wins, but that’s because in five of the six Walter starts the Astros didn’t win the game they failed to score more than two runs. Walter turns 29 years old in September. His only prior big league experience was 23 innings in relief with a 6.26 ERA for the Red Sox two years ago. The Bosox released him last August, the Astros signed him basically as minor league depth. Look at him (and the Astros) now.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch! 

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