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Tuesday morning update on the situation with potential Barry

Tuesday morning update on the situation with potential Barry
Weathermodels.com

Good morning, today is still going to be miserably hot with the heat index pushing towards 108 degrees. Please be careful if you are outside, and please please please check your backseat before you get out of your car if you have kids.

Now on to why you are really here - the potential storm in the Gulf.

Where is Potential Barry Going: As expected the forecast has waffled back and forth over the past couple of days, and the reality is that it will continue to do so until there is actually an organized storm. Part of the issue with a track for Potential Barry is that it is dependent on where the storm actually forms. If the area of low pressure currently over southern Georgia organizes quickly and relatively close to land once it enters the Gulf it has a better chance of staying well east of our area. However, if it dives a little further south more towards the central Gulf before it really gets spinning then it has a higher likelihood of heading further west, in this general direction. Additionally, a lot also depends on a number of factors in the upper atmosphere that will affect steering for Potential Barry. Right now there are 3 features that could affect where this storm goes and if one of them does not behave as forecasted then the track for the storm will change.



Spaghetti plot showing one model's array of potential solution on where Potential Barry may go. As you can see our area is within the range of possibilities but is far from a defined target.Weathermodels.com

Basically it is important to keep in mind that a lot of things have to break just right for us to take a direct hit from this storm. Is it within the realm of possibility? Yes. Is it more likely than not at this point though? No. I know everyone wants concrete answers but unfortunately we are still in wait and see mode with this storm, which by the way has not even formed yet.

Satellite Image of Gulf Of Mexico this morning. Beginning to see some storms in the north east Gulf, but not much to see here yet.TropicalTidbits

How Strong Will Potential Barry Get: Unfortunately this is also difficult to determine right now. What we do know is that conditions over the Gulf are favorable for Potential Barry to organize and intensify. However much of its intensity will depend on its track and how long it has over the water. Right now I would say the possibilities range from raggedy tropical storm to a low end hurricane.

What Will Impacts Be: Lets say Potential Barry does move in our direction. We wouldn't see adverse impacts until this weekend with the main impact likely being heavy rain. No, this storm is not forecast to stall like Harvey, but these tropical systems are very efficient rain makers. Wind would likely only be an issue for direct coastal areas. Finally, all indications right now are that Potential Barry will be a pretty compact storm, meaning impacts will be feast or famine depending how close we are to the center. Even if the storm makes landfall near Beaumont the Houston area may see very little impact. If we are indeed on the west side of the storm the main impact for us would be even more heat.

In sum this remains a very fluid situation that can and will change over the next couple of days. Unfortunately the computer models will continue their windshield wiper like swings until a defined storm has formed, which will likely be sometime tomorrow or Thursday. The best thing you can do is make sure you have supplies ready. You may not need them for this storm but it doesnt hurt to have them since hurricane season is really only just beginning.


You can find me on Twitter @stephenuzick

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A lockout appears unavoidable! Photo via: Wiki Commons.

Looming over baseball is a likely lockout in December 2026, a possible management push for a salary cap and perhaps lost regular-season games for the first time since 1995.

“No one’s talking about it, but we all know that they’re going to lock us out for it, and then we’re going to miss time,” New York Mets All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso said Monday at the All-Star Game. “We’re definitely going to fight to not have a salary cap and the league’s obviously not going to like that.”

Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred and some owners have cited payroll disparity as a problem, while at the same time MLB is working to address a revenue decline from regional sports networks. Unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL, baseball has never had a salary cap because its players staunchly oppose one.

Despite higher levels of luxury tax that started in 2022, the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets have pushed payrolls to record levels. The last small-market MLB club to win a World Series was the Kansas City Royals in 2015.

After signing outfielder Juan Soto to a record $765 million contract, New York opened this season with an industry-high $326 million payroll, nearly five times Miami’s $69 million, according to Major League Baseball’s figures. Using luxury tax payrolls, based on average annual values that account for future commitments and include benefits, the Dodgers were first at $400 million and on track to owe a record luxury tax of about $151 million — shattering the previous tax record of $103 million set by Los Angeles last year.

“When I talk to the players, I don’t try to convince them that a salary cap system would be a good thing,” Manfred told the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday. “I identify a problem in the media business and explain to them that owners need to change to address that problem. I then identify a second problem that we need to work together and that is that there are fans in a lot of our markets who feel like we have a competitive balance problem.”

Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, 2026, and management lockouts have become the norm, which shifts the start of a stoppage to the offseason. During the last negotiations, the sides reached a five-year deal on March 10 after a 99-day lockout, salvaging a 162-game 2022 season.

“A cap is not about a partnership. A cap isn’t about growing the game,” union head Tony Clark said Tuesday. “A cap is about franchise values and profits. ... A salary cap historically has limited contract guarantees associated with it, literally pits one player against another and is often what we share with players as the definitive non-competitive system. It doesn’t reward excellence. It undermines it from an organizational standpoint. That’s why this is not about competitive balance. It’s not about a fair versus not. This is institutionalized collusion.”

The union’s opposition to a cap has paved the way for record-breaking salaries for star players. Soto’s deal is believed to be the richest in pro sports history, eclipsing Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal with the Dodgers signed a year earlier. By comparison, the biggest guaranteed contract in the NFL is $250 million for Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

Manfred cites that 10% of players earn 72% of salaries.

“I never use the word `salary’ within one of `cap,’” he said. “What I do say to them is in addressing this competitive issue that’s real we should think about whether this system is the perfect system from a players’ perspective.”

A management salary cap proposal could contain a salary floor and a guaranteed percentage of revenue to players. Baseball players have endured nine work stoppages, including a 7 1/2-month strike in 1994-95 that fought off a cap proposal.

Agent Scott Boras likens a cap plan to attracting kids to a “gingerbread house.”

“We’ve heard it for 20 years. It’s almost like the childhood fable,” he said. “This very traditional, same approach is not something that would lead the younger players to the gingerbread house.”

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