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Tuesday morning update on the situation with potential Barry

Tuesday morning update on the situation with potential Barry
Weathermodels.com

Good morning, today is still going to be miserably hot with the heat index pushing towards 108 degrees. Please be careful if you are outside, and please please please check your backseat before you get out of your car if you have kids.

Now on to why you are really here - the potential storm in the Gulf.

Where is Potential Barry Going: As expected the forecast has waffled back and forth over the past couple of days, and the reality is that it will continue to do so until there is actually an organized storm. Part of the issue with a track for Potential Barry is that it is dependent on where the storm actually forms. If the area of low pressure currently over southern Georgia organizes quickly and relatively close to land once it enters the Gulf it has a better chance of staying well east of our area. However, if it dives a little further south more towards the central Gulf before it really gets spinning then it has a higher likelihood of heading further west, in this general direction. Additionally, a lot also depends on a number of factors in the upper atmosphere that will affect steering for Potential Barry. Right now there are 3 features that could affect where this storm goes and if one of them does not behave as forecasted then the track for the storm will change.



Spaghetti plot showing one model's array of potential solution on where Potential Barry may go. As you can see our area is within the range of possibilities but is far from a defined target.Weathermodels.com

Basically it is important to keep in mind that a lot of things have to break just right for us to take a direct hit from this storm. Is it within the realm of possibility? Yes. Is it more likely than not at this point though? No. I know everyone wants concrete answers but unfortunately we are still in wait and see mode with this storm, which by the way has not even formed yet.

Satellite Image of Gulf Of Mexico this morning. Beginning to see some storms in the north east Gulf, but not much to see here yet.TropicalTidbits

How Strong Will Potential Barry Get: Unfortunately this is also difficult to determine right now. What we do know is that conditions over the Gulf are favorable for Potential Barry to organize and intensify. However much of its intensity will depend on its track and how long it has over the water. Right now I would say the possibilities range from raggedy tropical storm to a low end hurricane.

What Will Impacts Be: Lets say Potential Barry does move in our direction. We wouldn't see adverse impacts until this weekend with the main impact likely being heavy rain. No, this storm is not forecast to stall like Harvey, but these tropical systems are very efficient rain makers. Wind would likely only be an issue for direct coastal areas. Finally, all indications right now are that Potential Barry will be a pretty compact storm, meaning impacts will be feast or famine depending how close we are to the center. Even if the storm makes landfall near Beaumont the Houston area may see very little impact. If we are indeed on the west side of the storm the main impact for us would be even more heat.

In sum this remains a very fluid situation that can and will change over the next couple of days. Unfortunately the computer models will continue their windshield wiper like swings until a defined storm has formed, which will likely be sometime tomorrow or Thursday. The best thing you can do is make sure you have supplies ready. You may not need them for this storm but it doesnt hurt to have them since hurricane season is really only just beginning.


You can find me on Twitter @stephenuzick

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Is leadership the main problem for Houston? Composite Getty Image.

With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.

While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.

Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.

And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.

The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.

It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.

Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.

The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.

They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.

Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.

Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?

As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.

The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?

Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!

Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.

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