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Tuesday morning update on the situation with potential Barry

Weathermodels.com

Good morning, today is still going to be miserably hot with the heat index pushing towards 108 degrees. Please be careful if you are outside, and please please please check your backseat before you get out of your car if you have kids.

Now on to why you are really here - the potential storm in the Gulf.

Where is Potential Barry Going: As expected the forecast has waffled back and forth over the past couple of days, and the reality is that it will continue to do so until there is actually an organized storm. Part of the issue with a track for Potential Barry is that it is dependent on where the storm actually forms. If the area of low pressure currently over southern Georgia organizes quickly and relatively close to land once it enters the Gulf it has a better chance of staying well east of our area. However, if it dives a little further south more towards the central Gulf before it really gets spinning then it has a higher likelihood of heading further west, in this general direction. Additionally, a lot also depends on a number of factors in the upper atmosphere that will affect steering for Potential Barry. Right now there are 3 features that could affect where this storm goes and if one of them does not behave as forecasted then the track for the storm will change.



Spaghetti plot showing one model's array of potential solution on where Potential Barry may go. As you can see our area is within the range of possibilities but is far from a defined target.Weathermodels.com

Basically it is important to keep in mind that a lot of things have to break just right for us to take a direct hit from this storm. Is it within the realm of possibility? Yes. Is it more likely than not at this point though? No. I know everyone wants concrete answers but unfortunately we are still in wait and see mode with this storm, which by the way has not even formed yet.

Satellite Image of Gulf Of Mexico this morning. Beginning to see some storms in the north east Gulf, but not much to see here yet.TropicalTidbits

How Strong Will Potential Barry Get: Unfortunately this is also difficult to determine right now. What we do know is that conditions over the Gulf are favorable for Potential Barry to organize and intensify. However much of its intensity will depend on its track and how long it has over the water. Right now I would say the possibilities range from raggedy tropical storm to a low end hurricane.

What Will Impacts Be: Lets say Potential Barry does move in our direction. We wouldn't see adverse impacts until this weekend with the main impact likely being heavy rain. No, this storm is not forecast to stall like Harvey, but these tropical systems are very efficient rain makers. Wind would likely only be an issue for direct coastal areas. Finally, all indications right now are that Potential Barry will be a pretty compact storm, meaning impacts will be feast or famine depending how close we are to the center. Even if the storm makes landfall near Beaumont the Houston area may see very little impact. If we are indeed on the west side of the storm the main impact for us would be even more heat.

In sum this remains a very fluid situation that can and will change over the next couple of days. Unfortunately the computer models will continue their windshield wiper like swings until a defined storm has formed, which will likely be sometime tomorrow or Thursday. The best thing you can do is make sure you have supplies ready. You may not need them for this storm but it doesnt hurt to have them since hurricane season is really only just beginning.


You can find me on Twitter @stephenuzick

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Altuve's homer starting the scoring for Houston on Friday night. Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
After a solid showing to take the three of the four-game series in Arlington against the Rangers to start the week, the Astros returned home for three against the Diamondbacks in a weekend series. They would have a slow start to the opener but would ultimately come away victorious.

Final Score (10 innings): Astros 4, Diamondbacks 3

Astros' Record: 87-60, first in the AL West

Winning Pitcher: Ryne Stanek (3-4)

Losing Pitcher: Tyler Clippard (1-1)

Bielak makes the impromptu start

With Luis Garcia having to move his start ahead by a day on Thursday instead of Friday with Framber Valdez's finger cut, Brandon Bielak made a start for Houston in the opener against Arizona. He didn't go as deep as he probably would have wanted and certainly ventured out of his comfort zone with traffic on the bases.

He loaded the bases in the top of the first, allowing a single and two walks, but was able to strand all three to keep it a scoreless game. He rebounded with a 1-2-3 second, but he dealt with a threat again in the third as back-to-back singles pressured him to start the inning. He would get back-to-back strikeouts, but that's as far as he would go as Houston moved on to Blake Taylor. Taylor got the final out of the third on one pitch, then erased a two-out double in the top of the fourth.

Altuve breaks up the no-no with a go-ahead homer

Brooks Raley took over in the top of the fifth, but in his three batters, he faced allowed a single while getting two outs before Cristian Javier took over to end the frame. Javier allowed the first run of the game in the top of the sixth, a leadoff solo homer to Kole Calhoun to put the Diamondbacks in front 1-0 before he finished the inning.

Madison Bumgarner didn't allow a single hit to the Astros through the first five and two-thirds innings. He allowed a one-out walk in the bottom of the sixth, which proved costly as Jose Altuve would get the first knock of the game for Houston, a two-run go-ahead homer. Phil Maton was the next reliever for the Astros in the top of the seventh, maintaining the new one-run lead by erasing a leadoff single.

Astros get the win in extras

The Diamondbacks tied it up in the top of the eighth against Kendall Graveman, getting a leadoff single followed by a walk, then later an RBI single to knot things up 2-2. Houston stranded a runner in the bottom of the eighth, then brought in Ryan Pressly, who tossed a 1-2-3 top of the ninth to keep the game tied.

Despite getting the winning run in scoring position with a leadoff ground-rule double by Jason Castro to start the bottom of the ninth, they would strand it as the game went to extras. Arizona scored their free runner in the top of the tenth, getting a sac fly to move it to third then going in front on an RBI single.

The Astros matched that and more in the bottom of the inning, moving their runner to third on a lineout to start the frame, followed by an intentional walk to Yordan Alvarez. Jake Meyers tied the game with an RBI single, then after another walk to load the bases, Chas McCormick was hit by a pitch to bring in the winning run, moving the Astros closer to clinching their playoff berth.

Up Next: The middle game of this three-game set will have a start time of 6:10 PM Central on Saturday. Tyler Gilbert (2-2, 3.15 ERA) is expected to make a start for Arizona, while Lance McCullers Jr. (12-4, 3.12 ERA) will be on the mound for Houston.

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