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Tuesday morning update on the situation with potential Barry

Weathermodels.com

Good morning, today is still going to be miserably hot with the heat index pushing towards 108 degrees. Please be careful if you are outside, and please please please check your backseat before you get out of your car if you have kids.

Now on to why you are really here - the potential storm in the Gulf.

Where is Potential Barry Going: As expected the forecast has waffled back and forth over the past couple of days, and the reality is that it will continue to do so until there is actually an organized storm. Part of the issue with a track for Potential Barry is that it is dependent on where the storm actually forms. If the area of low pressure currently over southern Georgia organizes quickly and relatively close to land once it enters the Gulf it has a better chance of staying well east of our area. However, if it dives a little further south more towards the central Gulf before it really gets spinning then it has a higher likelihood of heading further west, in this general direction. Additionally, a lot also depends on a number of factors in the upper atmosphere that will affect steering for Potential Barry. Right now there are 3 features that could affect where this storm goes and if one of them does not behave as forecasted then the track for the storm will change.



Spaghetti plot showing one model's array of potential solution on where Potential Barry may go. As you can see our area is within the range of possibilities but is far from a defined target.Weathermodels.com

Basically it is important to keep in mind that a lot of things have to break just right for us to take a direct hit from this storm. Is it within the realm of possibility? Yes. Is it more likely than not at this point though? No. I know everyone wants concrete answers but unfortunately we are still in wait and see mode with this storm, which by the way has not even formed yet.

Satellite Image of Gulf Of Mexico this morning. Beginning to see some storms in the north east Gulf, but not much to see here yet.TropicalTidbits

How Strong Will Potential Barry Get: Unfortunately this is also difficult to determine right now. What we do know is that conditions over the Gulf are favorable for Potential Barry to organize and intensify. However much of its intensity will depend on its track and how long it has over the water. Right now I would say the possibilities range from raggedy tropical storm to a low end hurricane.

What Will Impacts Be: Lets say Potential Barry does move in our direction. We wouldn't see adverse impacts until this weekend with the main impact likely being heavy rain. No, this storm is not forecast to stall like Harvey, but these tropical systems are very efficient rain makers. Wind would likely only be an issue for direct coastal areas. Finally, all indications right now are that Potential Barry will be a pretty compact storm, meaning impacts will be feast or famine depending how close we are to the center. Even if the storm makes landfall near Beaumont the Houston area may see very little impact. If we are indeed on the west side of the storm the main impact for us would be even more heat.

In sum this remains a very fluid situation that can and will change over the next couple of days. Unfortunately the computer models will continue their windshield wiper like swings until a defined storm has formed, which will likely be sometime tomorrow or Thursday. The best thing you can do is make sure you have supplies ready. You may not need them for this storm but it doesnt hurt to have them since hurricane season is really only just beginning.


You can find me on Twitter @stephenuzick

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Nick Caserio's history of drafting injury prone players has become a problem. Composite Getty Image.

Nick Caserio was hired to serve as the general manager (GM) of the Texans on January 7, 2021. Some saw it as another nod to the organization's obsession with the Patriots. Others saw it as the team finally getting their guy after pursuing him previously. They were even hit with a tampering charge while trying to talk to him about the job. Since he's been on the job, there have been highs and lows.

Recently, the news about Kenyon Green and Derek Stingley Jr put a stain on his tenure. Green was placed on season-ending injured reserve (IR) and Stingley Jr is expected to be placed on IR, likely missing six to eight weeks, per Aaron Wilson. Both guys were Caserio's 2022 first rounders. Both guys are starting to look like busts and have fans a little more than just upset.

Green's case was curious because he was said to have needed surgery before he tore his labrum during the Saints preseason game. He had knee surgery this past offseason. There were knee injury concerns when he was coming out of A&M. Adding to his injuries, Green has played poorly. To make matters worse, the Chargers drafted fellow guard Zion Johnson two picks later. Johnson played all 17 games last season as a rookie at right guard and has moved to left guard this season. The pick used to draft Green was part of a trade back with the Eagles. They used the 13th overall pick to take Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis, a guy at a position this team could desperately use.

Stingley Jr was a highly touted recruit coming into LSU as a freshman. He played as well as any corner in the country that year. Oh, and they won a national title with arguably one of the best teams in college football history. His net two years in Baton Rouge were marred with injuries. Some believed his junior year was more him holding back to stay healthy for the draft. It worked because he was taken third overall, one spot ahead of Sauce Gardner. Gardner went on to be an All Pro as a rookie. While he's surrounded by more talent on the Jets' defense, people will forever link them because Stingley Jr hasn't lived up to expectations. He missed six games last season and is set to miss at least that many this season. When he has played, he's looked okay. “Okay” isn't what you want from a guy drafted third overall ahead of the other guy who was widely considered better than him.

For the 2021 draft, Caserio was handcuffed. He had no first or second rounders, and made a few trades that lessened his draft pool from eight to five picks. Of the five guys drafted that year, only Nico Collins seems to be a player. The 2022 draft was more productive. Although Green and Stingley Jr were the headliners and haven't played up to the hype, the others are carrying the load. Jalen Pitre and Dameon PIerce alone make that draft class dope. This past draft was seen as the one to save the franchise so to speak. Getting C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr got the team a franchise quarterback and edge rusher with picks two and three overall. The price paid to move back up to three was hefty and puts more scrutiny on Anderson Jr. They appear, so far, to have also found a couple other nice players. Tank Dell being the hidden gem of this class.

While people can't, and shouldn't, base Caserio's performance strictly off of the guys he's drafted, one must call it into question. The '21 draft was a wash. The '22 draft looks suspect, but has some redeeming qualities. The '23 draft will most likely be his saving grace. But should it? Former Texans GM Rick Smith nailed almost every first rounder he drafted. Even he was almost run out of town because folks didn't like what he did. Why should Caserio be any different? So what if he cleaned up the mess by the previous regime! That's what he was hired to do!

“Keep that same energy!” That phrase is used when people try to hold others to different standards. Where's that energy everyone had for Bill O'Brien, Jack Easterby, Rick Smith, Gary Kubiak, David Culley, and Lovie Smith? When others weren't performing well, their heads were called for. I see some people holding Caserio accountable. For the most part, it appears as if he's getting a bit of a pass. I'll be interested to see if this continues should the team has another subpar season. If that pick they traded to the Cardinals is another top 10 pick and the Browns pick the Texans own isn't...if Green can't come back and/or Stingley Jr doesn't show any signs of being a lockdown corner...then what? Let's hope none of this comes to fruition. If it does, we'll have to revisit this conversation.

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