WeatherMap

Wednesday morning update on soon-to-be Barry

Wednesday morning update on soon-to-be Barry
TropicalTidbits

Here we are another day into "Barry Watch" and unfortunately there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding this storm. With that said here are the things I am very sure about:

1. While this storm has not technically reached tropical storm status and been given a name, it will within the next 24 hours or so. This is about as certain as the Texans whiffing on their late round draft picks.

2. Someone along the Gulf coast is going to be dealing with a tropical storm or hurricane this weekend.

This is where the certainty ends. So with that said here is where things are standing:

Happening Now: The disturbance that will become Barry has drifted out into the Gulf west of Tampa and is firing off numerous thunderstorms, however it is not organized yet.


Satellite image showing thunderstorm activity in northeast Gulf. This is the embryo of Barry if you will.TropicalTidbits

How this blob of storms evolves and where it consolidates a center of circulation will be very important in figuring out where it is going.

Track: Again, there is still a lot of uncertainty with where Barry will go. Anywhere from the Mississippi/Louisiana border to Madagorda Bay is in play. There are a number of factors that are going to have an effect on an eventual track and getting them all figured out has been a challenge for the computer models thus far. Yesterday a consensus seemed to be forming that the central Louisiana coast was going to be the favored spot for landfall, however last night a number of models shifted further west (towards Texas) yet again. Unfortunately until this disturbance develops a defined center the models are going to continue to have more waffles and an IHOP.

GIF showing where the European Model projected Barry to be on Saturday evening over the last few model runs. As you can see it has continued to shift around quite a bit leading to uncertainty.TropicalTidbits

Speaking of that center of circulation, where it develops will have a big impact on the track. As I mentioned yesterday, if the center develops closer to the Florida Panhandle the storm will likely stay further away from us. If it develops further south and west out into the Gulf we are more in play. Another factor in Barry's path is how strong it gets. A stronger storm is going to feel different steering flows than a weaker storm. A stronger Barry will likely push further west, and more in our general direction, while a weaker Barry will get pulled north into Louisiana the coast a bit more quickly.


Spread in possible locations of where Barry might be Saturday morning according to this morning's European model run. All of those little "L"s represent a possible location of the center. Again this is just one model run, but I am using it to show that there is still a spread.Weathermodels.com


Strength: Similarly to the path question there is a lot of uncertainty on how strong Barry could get. Over the past day or so models have consistently trended stronger. Conditions are very favorable over the Gulf for this storm to strengthen. Right now I think realistic expectations should be anywhere from a mid level tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane. As I mentioned above, how strong Barry gets will also play a role in where it goes. So this is something that will need to be watched closely.

Impact: Wherever Barry goes it will bring copious amounts of rain. Right now it appears that Barry will not be strong enough to bring significant wind impacts much further inland from the immediate coast. Also it is important to keep in mind that the worst of the rain and wind will be confined largely to the right (east) side of the storm. For our area this means that we would have to take a direct strike or have it make landfall south of Galveston to see the worst of it. While we are not out of the woods yet in terms of a direct strike, landfall south of Galveston is on the far edge of the periphery of possible outcomes right now.

What To Do: We are close enough to a landfall time where it doesn't hurt to make sure you have hurricane supplies stocked up. We may not need them for this storm but we have a long way yet to go in hurricane season. If we don't get a storm this year then you just end up with some extra water or extra batteries (because lord knows you always need extra batteries for the remote). Preparedness with this storm is important because if the situation does change we will not have a ton of lead time. If Barry misses its exit to the Louisiana coast Texas is the next stop for what could be a strengthening storm. While that is not a for sure outcome its better to just be prepared just in case. Finally, if you do not already, please go ahead and give @nwshouston (Houston National Weather Service Office) and @NHC_Atlantic (The National Hurricane Center) a follow on Twitter. They will be putting out important information over the next several days.

I will be back tomorrow with hopefully some more answers. In the meantime though you can always find me on Twitter @stephenuzick if you have any questions.

tropical storm barryweather update

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Nationals defeat Astros, 6-0. Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images.

Left-hander Mitchell Parker threw seven shutout innings, and Luis Garcia Jr. had three singles and two RBIs and the Washington Nationals beat the Houston Astros 6-0 on Sunday.

The Nationals have won three of their past four series after starting the season 2-6.

After allowing two runs over five innings last Monday in his major league debut, a 6-4 win over the L.A. Dodgers, Parker (2-0) was even more effective in his second major league start, allowing three hits, striking out eight and walking none, throwing 57 of his 73 pitches for strikes.

“He has so much poise," Nationals manager Dave Martinez said. "He’s ready. He gets the ball, ready to get back on the mound. I watched him today. He threw a ground ball. The play was made and he got right on the mound and was holding his glove up as if, ‘hey, come on, give me the ball, like I’m ready to get back on there’. It was cool to watch. He understands what he wants to do.”

Parker mixed his 85-87 mph splitter, 81-82 mph curveball and 92 mph four-seam fastball. He struck out Jose Altuve and Jeremy Peña a combined four times. Dylan Floro and Matt Barnes each added a scoreless inning for Washington.

Parker was thrilled to be able to throw the splitter for strikes, something that did not come as easy against the Dodgers.

“100 percent, yeah," Parker said. "We were able to get in there for more swings and misses. They were more competitive pitches. Going to keep working on it, seeing if we can keep it where it is at.”

Astros right-hander Hunter Brown replaced scheduled starter Cristian Javier, who was scratched from Sunday’s series finale with neck discomfort. Javier was placed on the 15-day injured list retroactive to April 14, and right-hander Spencer Arrighetti was called up from Triple-A Sugar Land.

Manager Joe Espada said they have not decided yet on an MRI for Javier.

“Neck discomfort, started a few days ago,” Espada said. “He tried to work through it but just couldn’t happen. This kind of just came out of nowhere. So, we are going to see what happens here.”

Brown allowed three runs and three hits and a walk in the first but then settled down, lasting four innings when his pitch count reached 84.

“Even in the first I felt like made some good pitches," Brown said. "Came to the outing prepared. Kind of did what I wanted to and it just didn’t fall our way there.”

García Jr.’s two-run single to center field highlighted the three-run first inning for the Nationals.

“We try to score every inning,' Garcia Jr. said through a translator. "But definitely when we score the first inning it gives you a different kind of sense of confidence throughout the game and it carries on through the games a different feeling.”

Joey Meneses had a bases-loaded two-run single to right field off Shawn Dubin in the fifth to make it 5-0. Nick Senzel hit his first home run of the season in the sixth to close out the scoring.

The Astros' tailspin continues, having lost five of their past six and nine of their past 12.

“It is not ideal in the situation that we are in but we are in this situation,” Espada said. “And we got to fight through this. We have guys in there who are capable of giving us innings and some of them are doing that. We are going back to playing the style of baseball that everyone sees the Astros play. We feel pretty good about the guys that we have in there to get us some good innings."

TRAINER’S ROOM

Astros left-hander Framber Valdez threw again Sunday and has a chance of starting one of the games in Chicago his week. “We will see how he feels,” Astros manager Joe Espada said. “Once we see how he feels, we will start talking about the possibilities if he can pitch in Chicago or not.”

Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz said he is about “90 percent” recovered from the flu that placed him on the 10-day injured list on April 12. Nationals manager Dave Martinez said Ruiz will go on a rehab assignment this week to play a couple of games before returning to the club.

UP NEXT

Houston travels to Chicago to begin a three-game series against the Cubs on Tuesday. Espada confirmed JP France and Justin Verlander will start two of the games, but did not specify the order. Spencer Arrighetti, who was called up for Javier, is an option for the opener.

Washington has a day off before hosting the L.A. Dodgers on Tuesday night. Left-hander Patrick Corbin (0-3, 8.06 ERA) faces the Dodgers for the second consecutive start.

astroshouston astros

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome