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Wednesday morning update on soon-to-be Barry

TropicalTidbits

Here we are another day into "Barry Watch" and unfortunately there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding this storm. With that said here are the things I am very sure about:

1. While this storm has not technically reached tropical storm status and been given a name, it will within the next 24 hours or so. This is about as certain as the Texans whiffing on their late round draft picks.

2. Someone along the Gulf coast is going to be dealing with a tropical storm or hurricane this weekend.

This is where the certainty ends. So with that said here is where things are standing:

Happening Now: The disturbance that will become Barry has drifted out into the Gulf west of Tampa and is firing off numerous thunderstorms, however it is not organized yet.


Satellite image showing thunderstorm activity in northeast Gulf. This is the embryo of Barry if you will.TropicalTidbits

How this blob of storms evolves and where it consolidates a center of circulation will be very important in figuring out where it is going.

Track: Again, there is still a lot of uncertainty with where Barry will go. Anywhere from the Mississippi/Louisiana border to Madagorda Bay is in play. There are a number of factors that are going to have an effect on an eventual track and getting them all figured out has been a challenge for the computer models thus far. Yesterday a consensus seemed to be forming that the central Louisiana coast was going to be the favored spot for landfall, however last night a number of models shifted further west (towards Texas) yet again. Unfortunately until this disturbance develops a defined center the models are going to continue to have more waffles and an IHOP.

GIF showing where the European Model projected Barry to be on Saturday evening over the last few model runs. As you can see it has continued to shift around quite a bit leading to uncertainty.TropicalTidbits

Speaking of that center of circulation, where it develops will have a big impact on the track. As I mentioned yesterday, if the center develops closer to the Florida Panhandle the storm will likely stay further away from us. If it develops further south and west out into the Gulf we are more in play. Another factor in Barry's path is how strong it gets. A stronger storm is going to feel different steering flows than a weaker storm. A stronger Barry will likely push further west, and more in our general direction, while a weaker Barry will get pulled north into Louisiana the coast a bit more quickly.


Spread in possible locations of where Barry might be Saturday morning according to this morning's European model run. All of those little "L"s represent a possible location of the center. Again this is just one model run, but I am using it to show that there is still a spread.Weathermodels.com


Strength: Similarly to the path question there is a lot of uncertainty on how strong Barry could get. Over the past day or so models have consistently trended stronger. Conditions are very favorable over the Gulf for this storm to strengthen. Right now I think realistic expectations should be anywhere from a mid level tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane. As I mentioned above, how strong Barry gets will also play a role in where it goes. So this is something that will need to be watched closely.

Impact: Wherever Barry goes it will bring copious amounts of rain. Right now it appears that Barry will not be strong enough to bring significant wind impacts much further inland from the immediate coast. Also it is important to keep in mind that the worst of the rain and wind will be confined largely to the right (east) side of the storm. For our area this means that we would have to take a direct strike or have it make landfall south of Galveston to see the worst of it. While we are not out of the woods yet in terms of a direct strike, landfall south of Galveston is on the far edge of the periphery of possible outcomes right now.

What To Do: We are close enough to a landfall time where it doesn't hurt to make sure you have hurricane supplies stocked up. We may not need them for this storm but we have a long way yet to go in hurricane season. If we don't get a storm this year then you just end up with some extra water or extra batteries (because lord knows you always need extra batteries for the remote). Preparedness with this storm is important because if the situation does change we will not have a ton of lead time. If Barry misses its exit to the Louisiana coast Texas is the next stop for what could be a strengthening storm. While that is not a for sure outcome its better to just be prepared just in case. Finally, if you do not already, please go ahead and give @nwshouston (Houston National Weather Service Office) and @NHC_Atlantic (The National Hurricane Center) a follow on Twitter. They will be putting out important information over the next several days.

I will be back tomorrow with hopefully some more answers. In the meantime though you can always find me on Twitter @stephenuzick if you have any questions.

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Yordan Alvarez provided the offense to back up more stellar pitching by the Astros as they took ALCS game 6 to advance to the 2021 World Series. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

After splitting the first two games of this series in Houston then falling behind in the series 2-1 by dropping the first of three games in Boston, the Astros took over the ALCS in Games 4 and 5, sending them back to their home crowd with a chance to finish things off in Game 6 at Minute Maid Park. After another stellar performance by their pitching staff and more timely hitting, they would accomplish that mission, winning the series and moving on to the 2021 World Series.

Final Score: Astros 5, Red Sox 0

ALCS Series (Best of Seven): Houston wins 4-2

Winning Pitcher: Luis Garcia

Losing Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi

Houston strikes first to start tightly-contested Game 6

After a scoreless top of the first inning by Boston's offense, the Astros capitalized on a chance to be first to score in the bottom of the frame. Alex Bregman started the two-out rally, reaching base on a single against Nathan Eovaldi for the first hit of the night. Yordan Alvarez followed, delivering his sixth RBI of the series with a double to put Houston on top 1-0.

That did not spark further immediate scoring, as the one-run score held while both starting pitchers provided solid outings for their team. For Eovaldi, he was able to limit Houston to just that single run through four frames. He returned in the bottom of the fifth, facing two batters, allowing a single, and getting a strikeout to end his night.

Garcia impresses in big start

For the home team, they were recipients of another expectation-exceeding performance from one of their young arms. Only anticipated to go a handful of innings, Luis Garcia worked efficiently and effectively against Boston, keeping them scoreless and hitless through five innings. He continued in the sixth, getting two more outs before allowing a two-out triple, ending his night as Phil Maton would enter to strand the tying run. Garcia's final line: 5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 76 P.

With both teams dipping into their bullpens, the Astros took advantage of Boston's as Yordan Alvarez's dominance went on display once again. He led the inning off with a triple, then scored on a double-play ball to extend Houston's lead to 2-0. Kendall Graveman took over on the mound in the top of the seventh and worked himself into a big moment. He gave up a one-out walk, followed by a single, which put runners on the corners for Boston. He continued to struggle with the zone, falling behind the next batter 3-1, but was able to battle back to get the strikeout paired with a terrific throw by Martin Maldonado to cut down the runner from first trying to steal second, ending the inning and maintaining the two-run advantage.

Astros headed to the World Series

Ryne Stake was Houston's next reliever, and he put Houston three outs away by getting a 1-2-3 eighth. With Ryan Pressly warming, he watched and hoped that his offense could give him some more insurance to work with when he went to the mound in the top of the ninth. His wish would be granted, as after getting two on base, Kyle Tucker would put a major exclamation point on the night's offense, hitting a three-run opposite-field homer to the Crawford Boxes to push the lead to 5-0.

Pressly, now with the five-run lead, came on to try and start the celebration by getting the final three outs. Against the tougher part of Boston's order, he would get a 1-2-3 inning, giving the Astros the American League pennant, which along with those won in 2017 and 2019, puts them back in the World Series for the third time in five years.

Up Next: The Astros will have three days off before The Fall Classic kicks off. While Game 1 will be on Tuesday, October 26th, nothing else has yet been determined as Houston awaits to see which of the Dodgers and Braves will advance out of the NL, which will also dictate if the Astros will host or travel to World Series Game 1.

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