WeatherMap

Barry sets its course

National Hurricane Center

Future Barry finally began to mature a bit last night while still a bit disorganized it looks better than it did yesterday.


College of DuPage

This morning the storm has (finally) officially be upgraded to Tropical Depression Two. This upgrade means the National Hurricane Center has found a closed circulation around which the storm is building. Once sustained winds in this center reach 39 MPH it will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry. This will probably happen at some point today.

Track: Models have continued to come into much better agreement that Louisiana's central coast will be Barry's destination. The National Hurricane Center has removed all of the Texas coastline from the "cone of uncertainty" meaning barring some totally drastic and crazy surprise we are mostly in the clear. I don't want to say that our chance of significant impact from Barry is 0% until the storm is actually north of our latitude, but I feel comfortable saying that our chance is less than 5%.

National Hurricane Center forecast track for what will become BarryNational Hurricane Center


Strength: The National Hurricane Center is still calling for the storm to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane with winds of about 75 MPH. This is a bit of a downgrade from what the potential strength looked like yesterday as the storm is going to run out of ocean real estate rather quickly. However, the winds will not be the main story of this storm, it will be the rain for Louisiana.

Impact: Locally impacts will be minor if not non-existent. Today it looks like some moisture rich air may be swung in here leading to a chance for some pop-up afternoon thunderstorms but really it isn't really any different than what we typically would see on a summer afternoon.

Higher moistue values (reds and purples) swinging in from the north this afternoon around the storm's circulation could lead to some pop-up stormsWeathermodels.com

However, the impact in Louisiana and especially New Orleans will be quite high. Over a foot of rain is forecast for parts of central and southeast Louisiana (including New Orleans) which is going to cause major problems.

Forecast rain amounts from BarryPivotal Weather


A storm is coming

WeatherMap: Afternoon Imelda update

Pivotal Weather

Well since this morning our tropical blob grew up into Tropical Storm Imelda, which lasted all of about an hour over the water before moving inland near Freeport. Right now the center of the storm is in Brazoria county, moving generally northward into Harris county.


College of DuPage

Rain bands will continue to move in over the area for the next few hours further saturating the grounds. Given the storm's position and speed I am becoming a little more wary of what is called a "core rain event." I mentioned this in my post this morning and it is basically where heavy rain consolidates around the center of a tropical low after sunset, and right now the center looks to move directly over Houston this evening. While I am NOT saying the entire city will see flooding tonight, I think that at the very least some street flooding is looking increasingly likely tonight into the wee hours of tomorrow morning. The models have held firm on 8-10 inch rainfall amounts around Houston and east towards Beaumont between now and Thursday evening but are still dropping 15-20 inch bombs on isolated areas. I feel like a broken record saying this now, but we just can't tell you exactly where those isolated spots will be. My best guess is somewhere near I-10 plus or minus a few miles to the north or south between Katy and Beaumont.


European model for total rain through Thursday afternoon.

I struggled with whether to include the above computer model image but I decided it was worth it to show the potential area of concern and also to show how sharp the gradient will be between a good lawn watering and something more disruptive.

As I said this morning, any one spot in the area has a relatively low chance of seeing those 15-20 inch amounts, however no spot as a 0% chance. I know it is frustrating to not have definitive answers but these systems are notoriously difficult to forecast when it comes to pin pointing bulls eyes.

As the center of circulation drifts north of town I believe we will see a bit of a break tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. After that models are showing another band of heavy rain developing across the area later on Wednesday, but let's get through tonight before getting into that.

You can find me on Twitter @stephenuzick

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