WeatherMap

Barry sets its course

National Hurricane Center

Future Barry finally began to mature a bit last night while still a bit disorganized it looks better than it did yesterday.


College of DuPage

This morning the storm has (finally) officially be upgraded to Tropical Depression Two. This upgrade means the National Hurricane Center has found a closed circulation around which the storm is building. Once sustained winds in this center reach 39 MPH it will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry. This will probably happen at some point today.

Track: Models have continued to come into much better agreement that Louisiana's central coast will be Barry's destination. The National Hurricane Center has removed all of the Texas coastline from the "cone of uncertainty" meaning barring some totally drastic and crazy surprise we are mostly in the clear. I don't want to say that our chance of significant impact from Barry is 0% until the storm is actually north of our latitude, but I feel comfortable saying that our chance is less than 5%.

National Hurricane Center forecast track for what will become BarryNational Hurricane Center


Strength: The National Hurricane Center is still calling for the storm to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane with winds of about 75 MPH. This is a bit of a downgrade from what the potential strength looked like yesterday as the storm is going to run out of ocean real estate rather quickly. However, the winds will not be the main story of this storm, it will be the rain for Louisiana.

Impact: Locally impacts will be minor if not non-existent. Today it looks like some moisture rich air may be swung in here leading to a chance for some pop-up afternoon thunderstorms but really it isn't really any different than what we typically would see on a summer afternoon.

Higher moistue values (reds and purples) swinging in from the north this afternoon around the storm's circulation could lead to some pop-up stormsWeathermodels.com

However, the impact in Louisiana and especially New Orleans will be quite high. Over a foot of rain is forecast for parts of central and southeast Louisiana (including New Orleans) which is going to cause major problems.

Forecast rain amounts from BarryPivotal Weather


National Hurricane Center

Well, I'm back a little sooner than I anticipated with an update on the tropical situation. That'll show me to write a post before the 1 AM forecast updates come out. I'm going to keep this brief for now but will be have a more detailed post tomorrow morning, you know, with pretty pictures and everything.

By now you may have heard we now need to keep a closer eye on this tropical system than we thought we did over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center now gives this area of low pressure, currently over Georgia an 80% chance to develop into at least a tropical depression. If it develops into a tropical storm (winds between 39 and 73 MPH) it would be named Barry.

As late as last night this system looked to be an issue for those somewhere between New Orleans and Florida. Over night new computer models came in showing a significant west shift in the track placing this potential storm anywhere between Matagorda Bay and the Texas/Louisiana Border. Now before anyone panics keep in mind this solution has only been shown for a couple of model runs. It could easily shift back east and away from us. If this system were to impact our area it would still be 6-7 days away and the forecast can and probably will shift around a number of times in the coming days. At this point just make yourself aware, but keep your hand away from the panic button.

Be sure to check in tomorrow morning for an update.

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