
Pivotal Weather
Well since this morning our tropical blob grew up into Tropical Storm Imelda, which lasted all of about an hour over the water before moving inland near Freeport. Right now the center of the storm is in Brazoria county, moving generally northward into Harris county.
College of DuPage
Rain bands will continue to move in over the area for the next few hours further saturating the grounds. Given the storm's position and speed I am becoming a little more wary of what is called a "core rain event." I mentioned this in my post this morning and it is basically where heavy rain consolidates around the center of a tropical low after sunset, and right now the center looks to move directly over Houston this evening. While I am NOT saying the entire city will see flooding tonight, I think that at the very least some street flooding is looking increasingly likely tonight into the wee hours of tomorrow morning. The models have held firm on 8-10 inch rainfall amounts around Houston and east towards Beaumont between now and Thursday evening but are still dropping 15-20 inch bombs on isolated areas. I feel like a broken record saying this now, but we just can't tell you exactly where those isolated spots will be. My best guess is somewhere near I-10 plus or minus a few miles to the north or south between Katy and Beaumont.
European model for total rain through Thursday afternoon.
I struggled with whether to include the above computer model image but I decided it was worth it to show the potential area of concern and also to show how sharp the gradient will be between a good lawn watering and something more disruptive.
As I said this morning, any one spot in the area has a relatively low chance of seeing those 15-20 inch amounts, however no spot as a 0% chance. I know it is frustrating to not have definitive answers but these systems are notoriously difficult to forecast when it comes to pin pointing bulls eyes.
As the center of circulation drifts north of town I believe we will see a bit of a break tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. After that models are showing another band of heavy rain developing across the area later on Wednesday, but let's get through tonight before getting into that.
You can find me on Twitter @stephenuzick
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The Astros didn’t leave Seattle with a series win, but they may have gained something just as important: a reminder that resilience still runs deep in this group.
After a grueling extra-inning loss on Saturday, one that included the loss of Isaac Paredes to a hamstring injury, Houston regrouped on Sunday and hammered the Mariners 11-3. Christian Walker provided the turning point with a much-needed go-ahead home run in the sixth inning, while Taylor Trammell added a two-run double and a solo shot of his own. With Chas McCormick back from the injured list but still finding his footing, Trammell is quickly making his case as the best option in center field moving forward.
Manager Joe Espada continues to juggle a lineup that’s been in constant flux. Rookie Cam Smith, who had a clutch two-run double in Sunday’s win, has struggled as of late, going just 2-for his last 24. While his ability to get hits in clutch situations has been extremely valuable, the lack of a consistent spot in the batting order may be taking its toll. Giving Smith a stable home in the cleanup spot, even temporarily, might be a helpful reset.
Then again, the cleanup role hasn’t been kind to everyone.
Last night, Christian Walker, batting 4th, went 0-4, 2 K
- Walker for the season, batting 4th: .167 BA, .498 OPS
- Both are MLB worst (min. 75 AB batting 4th, 51st of 51)
- His 210 AB batting 4th are 6th most in MLB
- He's hitting .317 w/ .887 OPS when batting anywhere but 4th
— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) July 19, 2025
Walker has been markedly less effective when hitting fourth this season, a trend that continues despite his strong Sunday performance. Sometimes, the data is clear: the four-hole might not be for him. He's literally been the worst cleanup option in baseball this season. Hit him fifth.
Behind the plate, Victor Caratini continues to impress, while Yainer Diaz is back in a cold stretch. Since the break, Diaz is just 1-for-14, raising questions about his timing and confidence as the summer grind deepens.
On the mound, the biggest developments are happening off the field. Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti both completed three-inning rehab outings with Double-A Corpus Christi, while Luis Garcia threw two innings in a rehab start with Low-A Fayetteville. The trio’s return could mark a major turning point for the Astros, especially as Lance McCullers continues to struggle in his own comeback. McCullers lasted just 2 2/3 innings in Saturday’s loss, allowing four runs and showing little of the form that once made him one of the rotation’s anchors.
There’s been hesitancy to replace McCullers with someone like Arrighetti while he’s still building back arm strength, but the argument grows thinner each time McCullers falters. If healthy, even a three- or four-inning version of Javier or Arrighetti could give Houston more consistency at the back of the rotation.
Despite the weekend loss, the Astros still hold one of the best offenses in baseball, second in batting average, 12th in OPS, and 11th in slugging. The pitching staff remains stout, ranking sixth in ERA and second in WHIP. This team is far from unraveling.
With reinforcements on the way and a lineup that’s still capable of putting up crooked numbers, the Astros aren’t panicking. If anything, Sunday’s blowout win showed they’re ready to weather whatever’s next.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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