
Pivotal Weather
Well since this morning our tropical blob grew up into Tropical Storm Imelda, which lasted all of about an hour over the water before moving inland near Freeport. Right now the center of the storm is in Brazoria county, moving generally northward into Harris county.
College of DuPage
Rain bands will continue to move in over the area for the next few hours further saturating the grounds. Given the storm's position and speed I am becoming a little more wary of what is called a "core rain event." I mentioned this in my post this morning and it is basically where heavy rain consolidates around the center of a tropical low after sunset, and right now the center looks to move directly over Houston this evening. While I am NOT saying the entire city will see flooding tonight, I think that at the very least some street flooding is looking increasingly likely tonight into the wee hours of tomorrow morning. The models have held firm on 8-10 inch rainfall amounts around Houston and east towards Beaumont between now and Thursday evening but are still dropping 15-20 inch bombs on isolated areas. I feel like a broken record saying this now, but we just can't tell you exactly where those isolated spots will be. My best guess is somewhere near I-10 plus or minus a few miles to the north or south between Katy and Beaumont.
European model for total rain through Thursday afternoon.
I struggled with whether to include the above computer model image but I decided it was worth it to show the potential area of concern and also to show how sharp the gradient will be between a good lawn watering and something more disruptive.
As I said this morning, any one spot in the area has a relatively low chance of seeing those 15-20 inch amounts, however no spot as a 0% chance. I know it is frustrating to not have definitive answers but these systems are notoriously difficult to forecast when it comes to pin pointing bulls eyes.
As the center of circulation drifts north of town I believe we will see a bit of a break tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. After that models are showing another band of heavy rain developing across the area later on Wednesday, but let's get through tonight before getting into that.
You can find me on Twitter @stephenuzick
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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